AS Roma v Cagliari prediction

Serie A · · Stadio Olimpico

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: AS Roma · Cagliari · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for AS Roma v Cagliari, Serie A on Tue, 27 Oct 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 78% of 214 landed (95% range 72–83.1%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated a home win between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 141 of 207 times (68.1%), against an average rating of 68.3%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

AS Roma host Cagliari in Serie A on Tuesday 27 October (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is AS Roma to win, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

AS Roma have conceded three goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Form and the table

Eight of AS Roma’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in five of AS Roma’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). At home, AS Roma have six wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.38 points per game, scoring 2.88 and conceding 0.88. AS Roma have scored 16 goals, the second-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Seven of Cagliari’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in six of Cagliari’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, Cagliari have four wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.86 points per game, scoring 0.86 and conceding 1.29. Cagliari have scored six goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Cagliari have conceded seven goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

AS Roma (third) and Cagliari (seventh) are four points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have AS Roma the stronger side, 362 rating points above Cagliari (AS Roma 1952, Cagliari 1590, after at least 311 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 9 February 2026, finished AS Roma 2–0 Cagliari.

Team news

AS Roma have one name on the availability list: M. Bah (out, Jumpers Knee) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-20. Predicted AS Roma XI (3-4-2-1): M. Svilar, Hermoso, G. Mancini, E. Ndicka, B. Cristante, Wesley, M. Koné, E. Lulli, N. Pisilli, N. Molina, P. Dybala — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Donyell Malen (6.6 per match over nine appearances, nine goals and two assists) and Paulo Dybala (4.6 per match over eight appearances, four assists) have been AS Roma’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for AS Roma (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Donyell Malen averages 3.5 shots per 90 over 1041 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Paulo Dybala averages 3.1 shots per 90 over 631 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last eight appearances.

Cagliari have one name on the availability list: Riyad Idrissi (out, Jumpers Knee) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-20. Predicted Cagliari XI (4-3-1-2): E. Caprile, A. Obert, Z. Pedro, J. Rodríguez, A. Deiola, A. Romano, H. Winks, M. Adopo, D. Maldini, P. Mendy, A. Fadera — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Elia Caprile (4.1 per match over eight appearances) and Daniel Maldini (3.9 per match over nine appearances, four goals) have been Cagliari’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Cagliari (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Elia Caprile averages 4.1 saves per 90 over 730 minutes, with two or more saves in eight of the last eight appearances. Daniel Maldini averages 1.3 shots per 90 over 703 minutes, with a shot in four of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Serie A · Stadio Olimpico
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): AS Roma 4 · draws 1 · Cagliari 1 · 2.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: AS Roma 2W 2D 1L · Cagliari 3W 1D 1L

AS Roma v Cagliari (Serie A): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 21 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2 / 0.88
Goals
against 1 / 1.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6.13 / 4.25
Corners
against 3 / 5.75 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.75 / 4
Shots on target
against 3.5 / 5.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2 / 1.25
Cards
against 2.25 / 1.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAS Roma for / againstLineCagliari for / against
Goals scored
2 for · 1 against n 8
2.5our book
0.88 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
6.13 for · 3 against n 8
9.5standard
4.25 for · 5.75 against n 8
Shots
17.88 for · 10.75 against n 8
19.5standard
11 for · 18.38 against n 8
Shots on target
5.75 for · 3.5 against n 8
8.5standard
4 for · 5.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
13.13 for · 8.75 against n 8
21.5standard
10.13 for · 9.75 against n 8
Cards shown
2 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
1.25 for · 1.25 against n 8
AS Roma
AS Roma — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Koné n 849.6
3.26/3
2.56/3
—
S. Castro n 842.1
3.25/4
0.83/0
—
E. Ndicka n 873
2.57/3
0.83/2
—
K. Koulierakis n 841.5
2.45/3
1.13/1
—
D. Ghilardi n 841.8
1.94/2
1.14/0
—
AS Roma — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Malen n 870.8
4.18/7
2.16/4
S. Castro n 842.1
48/4
0.52/0
P. Dybala n 878.9
3.18/6
1.15/3
L. Pellegrini n 858.1
2.97/3
1.24/1
Rodrigo Mora n 848.1
2.86/4
1.45/1
AS Roma — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Malen n 870.8
14/2
0.32/0
L. Pellegrini n 858.1
0.42/0
0.21/0
P. Dybala n 878.9
00/0
0.62/1
M. Koné n 849.6
0.51/1
00/0
M. Soulé n 862.9
00/0
0.41/1
AS Roma — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Ghilardi n 841.8
47/3
Nahuel Molina n 861.8
3.37/5
L. Balerdi n 859
2.75/3
Wesley n 872.6
2.35/4
M. de Roon n 849.8
2.36/2
AS Roma — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Svilar n 890
2.87/5
P. Gollini n 890
1.94/3
Cagliari
Cagliari — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
G. Borrelli n 834.5
2.33/2
25/1
—
P. Mendy n 876.3
2.18/5
15/2
—
A. Fadera n 833.3
23/2
2.75/1
—
J. Liteta n 752.1
1.73/2
0.21/0
—
Kevin Carlos n 820.3
1.73/0
2.85/0
—
Cagliari — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Borrelli n 834.5
3.35/3
23/1
Kevin Carlos n 820.3
2.22/2
1.11/1
M'Bala Nzola n 843.9
1.84/2
13/1
A. Fadera n 833.3
1.73/2
0.31/0
P. Mendy n 876.3
1.66/4
0.75/0
Cagliari — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Maldini n 858.1
0.84/0
00/0
G. Borrelli n 834.5
0.72/0
00/0
M'Bala Nzola n 843.9
0.31/0
0.31/0
P. Mendy n 876.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
M. Adopo n 882.1
00/0
0.32/0
Cagliari — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Fadera n 833.3
4.17/5
J. Liteta n 752.1
2.54/3
A. Obert n 888.3
2.36/5
A. Romano n 875.6
2.16/5
A. Deiola n 862.9
26/3
Cagliari — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
E. Caprile n 891.3
4.18/6
B. Radunović n 884.4
2.56/5

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind AS Roma v Cagliari — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AS RomaDDLWW
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
CagliariWWWDL
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
AS Roma 4 · 1 draw · Cagliari 1 · 2.17 goals/game
  • 2026-02-09 AS Roma 2–0 Cagliari
  • 2025-12-07 Cagliari 1–0 AS Roma
  • 2025-03-16 AS Roma 1–0 Cagliari
  • 2024-08-18 Cagliari 0–0 AS Roma
  • 2024-02-05 AS Roma 4–0 Cagliari
  • 2023-10-08 Cagliari 1–4 AS Roma
League standing · 2026/27
AS Roma#3 pos17 pts7 pl+13 GD
Cagliari#7 pos13 pts7 pl-1 GD
Goals per game
AS Roma scored2.29
Cagliari scored0.86
AS Roma conceded0.43
Cagliari conceded1

See the full prediction

Pro members unlock all 246 markets for this match — result, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and player props — plus advanced & key match statistics, expected goals and value against the bookmakers.

Expected goals (xG)
Pro
Win probability & value
Pro
Try Pro for £1.00 — see all predictions

£1.00 for 14 days, then £9.99/month. Cancel in the trial and pay nothing more.

Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win AS Roma v Cagliari?
TACTIX’s free model pick for AS Roma v Cagliari is Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cagliari?
In their last 6 meetings, AS Roma won 4, Cagliari won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of AS Roma and Cagliari?
Recent form — AS Roma 2W 2D 1L; Cagliari 3W 1D 1L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all 246 predictions, advanced stats & value against the bookies with ProTry Pro for £1.00 →