Lazio v Parma prediction

Serie A · · Stadio Olimpico

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lazio · Parma · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick for Lazio v Parma, Serie A on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 19:45 BST.

Free pick
Home or Draw
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.3% of 1490 landed (95% range 73–77.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Lazio host Parma in Serie A on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Lazio or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Parma have scored four goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Lazio are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions. Lazio have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Eight of Lazio’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of Lazio’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Lazio have three wins, two draws and three defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.38 points per game, scoring 1.38 and conceding 1.75. Lazio have scored 14 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Lazio have conceded four goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Four of Parma’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (27%). Both teams scored in five of Parma’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). Away from home, Parma have one win, no draws and five defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 0.50 points per game, scoring 0.33 and conceding 1.67. Parma have conceded 10 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Lazio (second) and Parma (16th) are 15 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Lazio the stronger side, 379 rating points above Parma (Lazio 1866, Parma 1487, after at least 196 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Lazio are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Parma. The most recent meeting, on 4 April 2026, finished Lazio 1–1 Parma.

Team news

Lazio have two names on the availability list: A. Furlanetto (out, Jumpers Knee) and Patric (out, Sprained Ankle) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-18. Predicted Lazio XI (4-3-3): C. Mandas, O. Provstgaard, R. Floriani Mussolini, N. Tavares, D. Doekhi, K. Taylor, D. Frattesi, R. Belahyane, M. Zaccagni, G. Isaksen, T. Noslin — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Nuno Tavares (5.2 per match over seven appearances, one goal and three assists) and Mattia Zaccagni (4.8 per match over eight appearances, one goal and three assists) have been Lazio’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Lazio (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Nuno Tavares averages 2.3 tackles per 90 over 517 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last nine appearances. Mattia Zaccagni averages 2.0 shots per 90 over 712 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last eight appearances.

Predicted Parma XI (3-4-2-1): E. Corvi, M. Troilo, E. Del Prato, D. Carlos, M. Keita, E. Valeri, V. Sierro, S. Britschgi, C. Ordoñez, A. Bernabé, E. Touré — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Simone Lontani (3.6 per match over seven appearances, three goals) and Mariano Troilo (3.1 per match over seven appearances) have been Parma’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Parma (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Simone Lontani averages 1.9 shots per 90 over 424 minutes, with a shot in five of the last seven appearances. Mariano Troilo averages 1.3 tackles per 90 over 625 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last seven appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Serie A · Stadio Olimpico
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Lazio 3 · draws 2 · Parma 1 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Lazio 4W 1D 0L · Parma 1W 1D 3L

Lazio v Parma (Serie A): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 0.75
Goals
against 0.75 / 1.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 3.88
Corners
against 4.75 / 6.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4 / 3.25
Shots on target
against 5 / 5.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2 / 1.25
Cards
against 2.88 / 1.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLazio for / againstLineParma for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 0.75 against n 8
2.5our book
0.75 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
5.38 for · 4.75 against n 8
9.5standard
3.88 for · 6.13 against n 8
Shots
13.88 for · 12.38 against n 8
19.5standard
8.88 for · 16.25 against n 8
Shots on target
4 for · 5 against n 8
8.5standard
3.25 for · 5.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.5 for · 11.63 against n 8
21.5standard
11.5 for · 13.63 against n 8
Cards shown
2 for · 2.88 against n 8
3.5standard
1.25 for · 1.63 against n 8
Lazio
Lazio — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Lazzari n 811.8
2.93/0
2.93/0
—
A. Pinamonti n 832.6
2.46/1
1.43/1
—
M. Cancellieri n 864.3
2.17/4
2.15/4
—
L. Pellegrini n 872.5
27/4
0.52/1
—
A. Guðmundsson n 844.5
1.84/2
1.85/1
—
Lazio — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Isaksen n 852.8
3.25/4
0.94/0
M. Cancellieri n 864.3
2.38/3
1.15/1
A. Pinamonti n 832.6
2.14/1
1.42/1
M. Zaccagni n 889
27/5
15/2
T. Noslin n 853.5
1.96/3
1.34/2
Lazio — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
T. Noslin n 853.5
0.42/0
0.62/1
A. Pinamonti n 832.6
0.72/0
0.31/0
B. Dia n 825.6
0.91/1
00/0
Nuno Tavares n 863.1
0.21/0
0.53/0
F. Dele-Bashiru n 854.5
0.42/0
0.21/0
Lazio — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Lazzari n 811.8
2.93/0
R. Belahyane n 875.5
2.47/5
M. Cancellieri n 864.3
2.37/4
D. Frattesi n 865.8
2.27/4
R. Floriani Mussolini n 878.5
2.17/5
Lazio — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
C. Mandas n 890
4.17/6
Parma
Parma — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Abdou Konate n 451.3
2.64/2
0.91/1
—
Diego Carlos n 868.9
2.36/3
0.21/0
—
D. Drobnic n 390
23/3
00/0
—
Vincent Sierro n 860.6
1.95/4
1.15/1
—
A. N'Diaye n 863.8
1.85/4
1.63/3
—
Parma — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
David Romero n 850.6
3.67/5
1.84/2
S. Lontani n 760.6
1.95/3
1.12/2
E. Touré n 871
1.36/2
0.64/0
G. Fabbian n 844
1.33/1
0.52/0
P. Almqvist n 818.4
1.22/0
0.61/0
Parma — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
P. Almqvist n 818.4
0.61/0
1.22/0
David Romero n 850.6
0.73/0
00/0
S. Lontani n 760.6
0.62/1
00/0
A. Circati n 867.5
0.21/0
0.21/0
E. Touré n 871
00/0
0.32/0
Parma — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Abdou Konate n 451.3
2.63/2
C. Ordoñez n 868.1
2.55/4
E. Valeri n 880.3
25/4
A. N'Diaye n 863.8
1.87/2
P. Almqvist n 818.4
1.83/0
Parma — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
E. Corvi n 890
3.57/6
G. Daffara n 890
2.94/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Lazio v Parma — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LazioWDWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.4 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
ParmaLDLWL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Lazio 3 · 2 draws · Parma 1 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2026-04-04 Lazio 1–1 Parma
  • 2025-12-13 Parma 0–1 Lazio
  • 2025-04-28 Lazio 2–2 Parma
  • 2024-12-01 Parma 3–1 Lazio
  • 2021-05-12 Lazio 1–0 Parma
  • 2021-01-21 Lazio 2–1 Parma
League standing · 2026/27
Lazio#2 pos19 pts7 pl+10 GD
Parma#16 pos4 pts6 pl-6 GD
Goals per game
Lazio scored2
Parma scored0.67
Lazio conceded0.57
Parma conceded1.67

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Lazio v Parma?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Lazio v Parma is Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Parma?
In their last 6 meetings, Lazio won 3, Parma won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lazio and Parma?
Recent form — Lazio 4W 1D 0L; Parma 1W 1D 3L.

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