Napoli v AS Roma prediction

Serie A · · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Napoli · AS Roma · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Napoli v AS Roma, Serie A on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 17:00 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.88 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.9% of 634 landed (95% range 62.2–69.5%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 419 of 636 times (65.9%), against an average rating of 68.5%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Napoli host AS Roma in Serie A on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 17:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

AS Roma have conceded three goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Napoli are unbeaten in the last five meetings with AS Roma.

Form and the table

Seven of Napoli’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in five of Napoli’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). At home, Napoli have four wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 1.00. Napoli have scored 10 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Napoli have conceded seven goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Seven of AS Roma’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in six of AS Roma’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, AS Roma have five wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 2.43 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 0.43. AS Roma have scored 16 goals, the second-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Napoli (ninth) and AS Roma (third) are seven points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have AS Roma the stronger side, 252 rating points above Napoli (AS Roma 1952, Napoli 1699, after at least 349 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 15 February 2026, finished Napoli 2–2 AS Roma.

Team news

Napoli have one name on the availability list: A. Buongiorno (out, Jumpers Knee) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-20. Predicted Napoli XI (3-4-2-1): A. Meret, A. Rrahmani, R. Marín, G. Di Lorenzo, S. Lobotka, K. De Bruyne, B. Gilmour, A. Zambo Anguissa, S. McTominay, A. Vergara, R. Højlund — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Amir Rrahmani (4.0 per match over nine appearances, one goal and one assist) and Kevin De Bruyne (3.3 per match over nine appearances, three goals and one assist) have been Napoli’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Napoli (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Amir Rrahmani averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 810 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last nine appearances. Kevin De Bruyne averages 3.0 key passes per 90 over 1448 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

AS Roma have one name on the availability list: M. Bah (out, Jumpers Knee) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-20. Predicted AS Roma XI (3-4-2-1): M. Svilar, Hermoso, G. Mancini, E. Ndicka, B. Cristante, Wesley, M. Koné, E. Lulli, N. Pisilli, N. Molina, P. Dybala — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Donyell Malen (6.2 per match over eight appearances, eight goals and one assist) and Paulo Dybala (4.6 per match over eight appearances, four assists) have been AS Roma’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for AS Roma (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Donyell Malen averages 3.3 shots per 90 over 982 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. Paulo Dybala averages 3.1 shots per 90 over 631 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last eight appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Serie A · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Napoli 2 · draws 3 · AS Roma 1 · 2.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Napoli 2W 1D 2L · AS Roma 2W 2D 1L

Napoli v AS Roma (Serie A): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 20 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.13 / 2
Goals
against 1.38 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
5.5 / 5.25
Corners
against 4.38 / 3.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.13 / 5.5
Shots on target
against 4.63 / 3.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.25 / 2.13
Cards
against 1.25 / 2 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameNapoli for / againstLineAS Roma for / against
Goals scored
1.13 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.75our book
2 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
5.5 for · 4.38 against n 8
9.5standard
5.25 for · 3.13 against n 8
Shots
15 for · 17.5 against n 8
19.5standard
16.5 for · 11.5 against n 8
Shots on target
5.13 for · 4.63 against n 8
8.5standard
5.5 for · 3.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.13 for · 8.88 against n 8
21.5standard
12.88 for · 8.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.25 for · 1.25 against n 8
3.5standard
2.13 for · 2 against n 8
Napoli
Napoli — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
L. Lucca n 823.6
3.87/1
0.51/0
—
Rafa Marín n 886.6
1.76/4
0.65/0
—
K. De Bruyne n 874.6
1.76/4
0.52/1
—
A. Vergara n 841.1
1.64/1
1.43/2
—
B. Badiashile n 867
1.54/2
0.32/0
—
Napoli — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Lang n 848.5
2.35/3
0.71/1
Alisson Santos n 856.8
2.27/3
1.44/2
K. De Bruyne n 874.6
2.17/5
1.24/3
S. McTominay n 874.4
26/4
0.94/1
R. Højlund n 873.3
26/5
1.25/2
Napoli — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
K. De Bruyne n 874.6
0.62/2
0.21/0
A. Vergara n 841.1
0.31/0
0.31/0
R. Højlund n 873.3
0.53/0
00/0
Billy Gilmour n 870.3
0.21/0
0.21/0
C. Favasuli n 857.4
00/0
0.42/0
Napoli — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Vergara n 841.1
5.26/5
C. Favasuli n 857.4
3.97/5
Rafa Marín n 886.6
2.28/6
M. Olivera n 855.1
2.25/4
B. Badiashile n 867
1.75/3
Napoli — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
V. Milinković-Savić n 884.4
3.66/5
A. Meret n 883.1
37/4
AS Roma
AS Roma — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Koné n 849.6
3.26/3
2.56/3
—
E. Ndicka n 873
2.57/3
0.83/2
—
S. Castro n 846.9
2.44/3
14/0
—
K. Koulierakis n 854.9
2.36/4
14/1
—
L. Balerdi n 849.8
1.84/3
0.94/0
—
AS Roma — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Malen n 871.9
3.98/7
26/4
Rodrigo Mora n 838.8
3.25/4
1.54/1
P. Dybala n 878.9
3.18/6
1.15/3
S. Castro n 846.9
3.18/3
0.73/0
M. Soulé n 862.5
2.37/2
1.14/1
AS Roma — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Malen n 871.9
1.34/3
0.21/0
M. Soulé n 862.5
0.21/0
0.52/1
L. Pellegrini n 860.1
0.42/0
0.21/0
P. Dybala n 878.9
00/0
0.62/1
Rodrigo Mora n 838.8
0.31/0
0.31/0
AS Roma — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Ghilardi n 834.1
4.66/3
Nahuel Molina n 858.3
3.77/5
Wesley n 876.5
2.56/5
L. Balerdi n 849.8
2.55/2
M. de Roon n 843.3
2.35/2
AS Roma — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Svilar n 890
2.87/5
P. Gollini n 890
2.45/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Napoli v AS Roma — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
NapoliWDWLL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1 conceded per game
AS RomaWDDLW
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Napoli 2 · 3 draws · AS Roma 1 · 2.33 goals/game
  • 2026-02-15 Napoli 2–2 AS Roma
  • 2025-11-30 AS Roma 0–1 Napoli
  • 2025-02-02 AS Roma 1–1 Napoli
  • 2024-11-24 Napoli 1–0 AS Roma
  • 2024-04-28 Napoli 2–2 AS Roma
  • 2023-12-23 AS Roma 2–0 Napoli
League standing · 2026/27
Napoli#9 pos10 pts7 pl+3 GD
AS Roma#3 pos17 pts7 pl+13 GD
Goals per game
Napoli scored1.43
AS Roma scored2.29
Napoli conceded1
AS Roma conceded0.43

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Napoli v AS Roma?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Napoli v AS Roma is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.88 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and AS Roma?
In their last 6 meetings, Napoli won 2, AS Roma won 1 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Napoli and AS Roma?
Recent form — Napoli 2W 1D 2L; AS Roma 2W 2D 1L.

Today’s boards

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