Palmeiras v Ceara result

Full-time · Palmeiras 2–1 Ceara

Serie A – Brazil ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Palmeiras · Ceara · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Palmeiras 2–1 Ceara — Palmeiras won this Serie A – Brazil match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.3% of 176 landed (95% range 44.9–59.5%); it had given them 77.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Palmeiras beat Ceara 2–1 in Serie A – Brazil on Sunday 10 August.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Ceara: Lourenço (51’, assisted by A. Galeano); Palmeiras: J. Lopez (67’ pen) and Vitor Roque (69’, assisted by Mauricio).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Vitor Roque’s goal on 69 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Palmeiras 1.44, Ceara 0.32, from 8 shots to 7 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Lucas Paulo Torezin, Brazil showed four yellow cards — against 4.2 yellows a game across the last 12 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Palmeiras: A. Moreno (43’); Ceara: Richard (-5’), Richardson (25’) and Matheus Bahia (38’).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, J. Lopez (Palmeiras) 7.5, G. Gomez (Palmeiras) 6.8 and Vitor Roque (Palmeiras) 6.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 52.3% of the time in the last 90 days (92 of 176).

Next up

Palmeiras next host Fluminense on 22 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Palmeiras: Palmeiras v Fluminense, Thursday 22 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Palmeiras 2–1 Ceara · Serie A – Brazil
  • Referee: Lucas Paulo Torezin, Brazil
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Palmeiras 5 · draws 0 · Ceara 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Palmeiras 2W 1D 2L · Ceara 1W 1D 3L

Palmeiras 2–1 Ceara (Serie A – Brazil): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.25 / 0.75
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.29 / 5.63
Corners
against 4.43 / 6.25 · 0 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4 / 3.5
Shots on target
against 3.57 / 3.88 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.71 / 2.5
Cards
against 3 / 2 · 3 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
4.17 yellows
Referee · Lucas Paulo Torezin, Brazil
2.17 home / 2 away
over 12 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gamePalmeiras for / againstLineCeara for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.5standard
0.75 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.29 for · 4.43 against n 7
9.5standard
5.63 for · 6.25 against n 8
Shots
12.14 for · 10.86 against n 7
19.5standard
12.75 for · 10.75 against n 8
Shots on target
4 for · 3.57 against n 7
8.5standard
3.5 for · 3.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
16.86 for · 16.57 against n 7
21.5standard
12.38 for · 12 against n 8
Cards shown
1.71 for · 3 against n 7
3.5standard
2.5 for · 2 against n 8

Referee: Lucas Paulo Torezin, Brazil — 4.17 yellow cards a game, 0.42 red cards, 26.17 fouls over 12 matches (2.17 to the home side, 2 to the away side).

Palmeiras
Palmeiras — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Lopez n 839.6
3.45/4
24/2
—
Raphael Veiga n 837.6
2.75/3
2.76/2
—
R. Rios n 889.4
2.57/5
2.68/6
—
Luighi n 836.5
2.24/3
2.56/2
—
E. Martinez n 857.3
25/3
1.25/1
—
Palmeiras — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Lopez n 839.6
2.84/3
0.62/0
R. Sosa n 834.1
24/2
0.31/0
Vitor Roque n 866.3
1.96/3
13/2
Mauricio n 860.9
1.87/2
1.35/2
Estêvão n 878.3
1.77/4
15/1
Palmeiras — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Mauricio n 860.9
0.63/0
0.21/0
R. Sosa n 834.1
00/0
0.72/0
J. Lopez n 839.6
0.62/0
00/0
F. Torres n 866.9
0.32/0
0.21/0
Estêvão n 878.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
Palmeiras — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Bruno Fuchs n 889.8
2.88/6
Felipe Anderson n 854
2.77/4
R. Rios n 889.4
2.47/5
Vanderlan n 858
2.16/3
Lucas Evangelista n 854.6
2.14/4
Palmeiras — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Marcelo Lomba n 892.8
2.96/4
Weverton n 893.8
1.94/3
Ceara
Ceara — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Romulo n 816.9
45/1
1.32/0
—
Lele n 817.5
3.25/0
1.93/0
—
Richardson n 855.5
36/5
0.84/0
—
Lourenço n 834.4
2.65/2
1.33/1
—
Fernando Sobral n 853.6
2.56/4
0.62/1
—
Ceara — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Lele n 817.5
3.94/2
1.92/1
Pedro Raul n 888
2.96/5
1.45/3
Pedro Henrique n 870.9
2.16/5
0.64/0
Fernandinho n 843.5
2.16/2
0.83/0
Romulo n 816.9
23/0
23/0
Ceara — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Pedro Raul n 888
0.42/1
00/0
A. Galeano n 884.5
0.42/1
00/0
Lucas Mugni n 861.3
00/0
0.42/0
Fernandinho n 843.5
00/0
0.31/0
Lourenço n 834.4
00/0
0.31/0
Ceara — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Lucas Lima n 718.6
4.23/2
Richardson n 855.5
36/4
Rafael Ramos n 835.1
2.94/2
Bruno Tubarão n 817.8
2.53/1
Fernando Sobral n 853.6
2.36/3
Ceara — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Fernando Miguel n 890.8
3.67/7
Bruno Ferreira n 887.9
1.53/3

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
PalmeirasCeara
61%Possession39%
1.44Expected goals (xG)0.32
8Shots7
5Shots on target4
3Shots off target2
0Blocked shots1
5Shots inside the box4
3Corners3
5Offsides3
8Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
3Saves3
484Passes310
85%Pass accuracy76%

Palmeiras player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Weverton9000000006.6
A. Giay9000001307.3
G. Gomez9000101407.6
Micael9000000006.9
J. Piquerez9000101507.7
Lucas Evangelista9000220307.3
Mauricio8901001107.2
Vitor Roque8510210006.9
A. Moreno84000002Y7
F. Torres5700001007.2
R. Sosa5700110106.6
Felipe Anderson sub3400000106.5
J. Lopez sub3410110307
E. Martinez sub1300000106.6
Allan Elias sub1200000106.3
Khellven sub10000000–

Ceara player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Bruno Ferreira9000000007.5
Marllon9000000407.2
Willian Machado9000110406.6
Diego9000100306.5
A. Galeano9001002106.6
Pedro Raul9000320006.2
Fabiano8700000206.9
Matheus Bahia86000002Y6.2
Richardson76000011Y6.7
Lourenço6810110207.2
Lucas Mugni6800000006.5
Nicolas sub2300001106.3
Fernando Sobral sub2300001006.5
Aylon sub1500000006.3
Guilherme Luiz sub1100000006.7
Rafael Ramos sub1000000106.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Palmeiras v Ceara — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
PalmeirasWWLDL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
CearaLLLWD
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Palmeiras 5 · 0 draws · Ceara 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2025-05-22 Palmeiras 3–0 Ceara
  • 2025-04-30 Ceara 0–1 Palmeiras
  • 2022-07-30 Ceara 1–2 Palmeiras
  • 2022-04-10 Palmeiras 2–3 Ceara
  • 2021-12-10 Palmeiras 1–0 Ceara
  • 2021-10-20 Ceara 1–2 Palmeiras
League standing · 2025
Last recorded position — not updated during the season.
Palmeiras#2 pos76 pts38 pl+33 GD
Ceara#17 pos43 pts38 pl-6 GD
Goals per game
Palmeiras scored1.74
Ceara scored0.89
Palmeiras conceded0.87
Ceara conceded1.05

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Palmeiras v Ceara?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Palmeiras v Ceara was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Ceara?
In their last 6 meetings, Palmeiras won 5, Ceara won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Palmeiras and Ceara?
Recent form — Palmeiras 2W 1D 2L; Ceara 1W 1D 3L.

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