Palmeiras v Fluminense prediction
Team pages: Palmeiras · Fluminense · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Palmeiras vs Fluminense, CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thu, 22 Oct 2026 01:30 BST.
The match
Palmeiras host Fluminense in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thursday 22 October (kick-off 01:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last five matches.
Form and the table
Six of Palmeiras’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in six of Palmeiras’s last 15 results (40%). At home, Palmeiras have six wins, no draws and no defeats in their last 6 home matches — 3.00 points per game, scoring 2.50 and conceding 0.33. Palmeiras have scored 10 goals, the fourth-most of the 32 clubs (2026 so far). Palmeiras have conceded five goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 32 clubs.
Nine of Fluminense’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in 10 of Fluminense’s last 15 results (67%). Away from home, Fluminense have one win, three draws and three defeats in their last 7 away matches — 0.86 points per game, scoring 1.43 and conceding 1.71. Fluminense have scored seven goals, the 12th-most (shared) of the 32 clubs (2026 so far). Fluminense have conceded seven goals, the 16th-most (shared) of the 32 clubs.
Palmeiras (second) and Fluminense (second) are three points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Palmeiras the stronger side, 231 rating points above Fluminense (Palmeiras 1862, Fluminense 1631, after at least 48 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 15 October 2026, finished Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras.
Team news
Predicted Palmeiras XI (4-2-3-1): C. Miguel, Murilo, G. Gomez, A. Barboza, A. Gabriel, M. Freitas, J. Arias, A. Pereira, A. Elias, L. Evangelista, J. Lopez — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, J. Lopez (5.0 per match over 44 appearances, 17 goals and nine assists) and Allan Elias (4.5 per match over 31 appearances, five goals and six assists) have been Palmeiras’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Palmeiras (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), J. Lopez averages 2.4 shots per 90 over 3457 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Allan Elias averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 2383 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Fluminense XI (4-2-3-1): Fabio, Guga, T. Silva, G. Arana, Ignacio, Hercules, Martinelli, Nonato, A. Canobbio, L. Acosta, Hulk — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Hulk (4.5 per match over 18 appearances, seven goals and five assists) and Rene (3.8 per match over 27 appearances, two assists) have been Fluminense’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Fluminense (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Hulk averages 2.6 shots per 90 over 2161 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Rene averages 2.7 tackles per 90 over 2239 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · CONMEBOL Libertadores · Allianz Parque
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Palmeiras 3 · draws 1 · Fluminense 2 · 2.5 goals/game
- Recent form: Palmeiras 4W 1D 0L · Fluminense 2W 0D 3L
As of 18 October 2026, TACTIX’s model — calibration published live, losing picks included — covers Palmeiras v Fluminense across 246 markets; the key numbers are on this page. See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Palmeiras for / against | Line | Fluminense for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.75 for · 0.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.25our book | 1.63 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 5.88 for · 5.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 2.75 for · 5.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 18.63 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 10.25 for · 13.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 7 for · 3.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.25 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 13 for · 13.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 12.13 for · 14.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.75 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.5 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
Palmeiras
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Pacheco n 8 | 18.4 | 3.7 | 0 | — |
| Larson n 8 | 15.8 | 3.6 | 2.1 | — |
| Vitor Roque n 8 | 59.9 | 2.3 | 4.5 | — |
| Mauricio n 8 | 31.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | — |
| A. Barboza n 8 | 90 | 1.9 | 0.4 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| R. Sosa n 8 | 23.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 |
| Heittor n 5 | 13 | 4.2 | 1.4 |
| Vitor Roque n 8 | 59.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 |
| Mauricio n 8 | 31.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| J. Lopez n 8 | 65.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paulinho n 8 | 27 | 0.8 | 0 |
| J. Lopez n 8 | 65.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Vitor Roque n 8 | 59.9 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Mauricio n 8 | 31.9 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Marlon Freitas n 8 | 83.3 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Felipe Anderson n 8 | 33.1 | 3.4 |
| A. Giay n 8 | 71.3 | 3.3 |
| Arthur Gabriel n 8 | 59.9 | 3 |
| Lucas Evangelista n 8 | 82.3 | 2.9 |
| Khellven n 8 | 41.4 | 2.4 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Miguel n 8 | 90 | 2.5 |
Fluminense
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riquelme Felipe n 8 | 17.9 | 3.1 | 3.1 | — |
| L. Acosta n 8 | 36.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | — |
| Otavio n 8 | 43.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | — |
| A. Canobbio n 8 | 72.8 | 2 | 3.2 | — |
| Julio Fidelis n 8 | 46 | 2 | 2.9 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hulk n 8 | 76.9 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| Jefferson Savarino n 8 | 39.6 | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| L. Acosta n 8 | 36.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| K. Serna n 8 | 50.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Guilherme Arana n 8 | 53.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hulk n 8 | 76.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Jefferson Savarino n 8 | 39.6 | 0.9 | 0 |
| L. Acosta n 8 | 36.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| K. Serna n 8 | 50.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Riquelme Felipe n 8 | 17.9 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Riquelme Felipe n 8 | 17.9 | 3.1 |
| Julio Fidelis n 8 | 46 | 2.9 |
| Rene n 8 | 90.8 | 2.6 |
| Guga n 8 | 88 | 2.3 |
| Nonato n 8 | 83.4 | 2.3 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Fabio n 8 | 91.6 | 3.4 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Palmeiras v Fluminense — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-10-15 Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras
- 2026-08-15 Fluminense 3–2 Palmeiras
- 2026-02-26 Palmeiras 2–1 Fluminense
- 2025-11-23 Palmeiras 0–0 Fluminense
- 2025-07-23 Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras
- 2024-12-08 Palmeiras 0–1 Fluminense
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Palmeiras v Fluminense is Over 2.5 goals.
- What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
- In their last 6 meetings, Palmeiras won 3, Fluminense won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Palmeiras and Fluminense?
- Recent form — Palmeiras 4W 1D 0L; Fluminense 2W 0D 3L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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