Santos v Gremio prediction

Serie A – Brazil · · Estadio Urbano Caldeira

Updated · refreshed continuously

TACTIX’s free model pick for Santos v Gremio, Serie A – Brazil on Sun, 22 Nov 2026 21:00 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Santos host Gremio in Serie A – Brazil on Sunday 22 November (kick-off 21:00 UK).

The key numbers

Santos have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions. Gremio are winless in their last seven matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

10 of Santos’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in nine of Santos’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Santos have two wins, three draws and no defeats in their last 5 home matches in all competitions — 1.80 points per game, scoring 1.40 and conceding 0.80. Santos have scored 48 goals, the sixth-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Santos have conceded 46 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Seven of Gremio’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in nine of Gremio’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Gremio have no wins, three draws and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.43 points per game, scoring 0.57 and conceding 1.43. Gremio have scored 34 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Gremio have conceded 44 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Santos (eighth) and Gremio (18th) are 14 points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Santos the stronger side, 352 rating points above Gremio (Santos 1760, Gremio 1408, after at least 335 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Gremio are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Santos. The most recent meeting, on 23 May 2026, finished Gremio 3–2 Santos.

Team news

Predicted Santos XI (4-2-3-1): Diogenes, L. Peres, L. Veríssimo, G. Escobar, Rodinei, C. Oliva, G. Pereira, G. Bontempo, Everton, Arthur, G. Barbosa — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Neymar (5.3 per match over 24 appearances, 10 goals and seven assists) and Gabriel Barbosa (3.6 per match over 38 appearances, 21 goals and seven assists) have been Santos’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Santos (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Neymar averages 3.0 key passes per 90 over 1982 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Gabriel Barbosa averages 2.5 shots per 90 over 2845 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Gremio XI (4-1-4-1): Weverton, Wallace, G. Martins, D. Caito, W. Kannemann, M. Villasanti, F. Krovinović, D. Barbosa, E. Noriega, C. Pavón, C. Vinícius — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Cristian Pavón (4.2 per match over 40 appearances, five goals and five assists) and Wallace (3.8 per match over 14 appearances, two goals and one assist) have been Gremio’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Gremio (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Cristian Pavón averages 1.8 tackles per 90 over 3119 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last 10 appearances. Wallace averages 1.5 tackles per 90 over 1357 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Serie A – Brazil · Estadio Urbano Caldeira
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Santos 2 · draws 1 · Gremio 3 · 2.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Santos 3W 1D 1L · Gremio 0W 3D 2L

Santos v Gremio (Serie A – Brazil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.88 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.63 · 5 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 3.88
Corners
against 6.13 / 7.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5 / 4.5
Shots on target
against 4.63 / 6.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
3 / 3.38
Cards
against 1.88 / 2.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameSantos for / againstLineGremio for / against
Goals scored
1.88 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.5standard
1.25 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
5.38 for · 6.13 against n 8
9.5standard
3.88 for · 7.38 against n 8
Shots
15.63 for · 13 against n 8
19.5standard
12.38 for · 18.88 against n 8
Shots on target
5 for · 4.63 against n 8
8.5standard
4.5 for · 6.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
13.5 for · 12.5 against n 8
21.5standard
14.13 for · 15.63 against n 8
Cards shown
3 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
3.38 for · 2.88 against n 8
Santos
Santos — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
João Schmidt n 852.1
2.46/3
00/0
—
Everton n 842.9
2.45/3
1.63/2
—
Rony n 854.1
2.16/3
2.15/2
—
Gabriel Menino n 849.1
2.14/3
0.93/1
—
Rodinei n 890.3
1.96/4
1.47/4
—
Santos — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Gabriel Barbosa n 887.5
3.98/8
1.88/4
Everton n 842.9
3.75/4
0.82/1
Neymar n 873.8
3.48/6
27/5
Rony n 854.1
3.37/5
0.84/0
Coutinho n 865.5
2.67/4
1.44/1
Santos — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Gabriel Barbosa n 887.5
16/2
0.42/1
Neymar n 873.8
0.31/1
0.63/1
Coutinho n 865.5
0.32/0
0.21/0
Everton n 842.9
00/0
0.52/0
Arthur n 850.3
00/0
0.42/0
Santos — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Gustavo Henrique Pereira n 867.5
4.37/6
Lima n 820.6
3.84/2
João Schmidt n 852.1
35/3
Luan Peres n 874.8
2.77/6
Gonzalo Escobar n 887.4
2.68/5
Santos — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Diogenes n 890.8
3.16/6
Gabriel Brazão n 891
2.78/3
Gremio
Gremio — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Erick Noriega n 866
3.26/6
0.52/1
—
Walter Kannemann n 867.8
2.56/4
1.34/2
—
Jovane Cabral n 838.8
2.35/1
4.47/4
—
João Pedro n 859.4
1.96/4
0.42/0
—
Martin Braithwaite n 827.4
1.64/0
2.14/1
—
Gremio — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Matheus Nascimento n 820
4.55/1
2.34/0
José Enamorado n 821.8
2.62/1
11/1
Martin Braithwaite n 827.4
2.13/2
0.41/0
Carlos Vinícius n 882.6
1.96/3
15/1
Cristian Pavón n 875.6
1.86/4
14/2
Gremio — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Matheus Nascimento n 820
0.61/0
00/0
Gustavo Martins n 865.9
0.52/1
00/0
Carlos Vinícius n 882.6
0.42/1
00/0
Cristian Pavón n 875.6
0.32/0
0.11/0
Tetê n 831.3
00/0
0.41/0
Gremio — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Marlon n 884.9
37/6
Mathias Villasanti n 887.3
2.28/4
Tetê n 831.3
2.23/2
Juan Nardoni n 841.4
1.95/1
Diego Caito n 886.5
1.86/5
Gremio — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Weverton n 890
5.18/6

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Santos v Gremio — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SantosWWDLW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
GremioLDDDL
Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Santos 2 · 1 draw · Gremio 3 · 2.17 goals/game
  • 2026-05-23 Gremio 3–2 Santos
  • 2025-10-02 Santos 1–1 Gremio
  • 2025-05-04 Gremio 1–0 Santos
  • 2023-08-20 Santos 2–1 Gremio
  • 2023-04-16 Gremio 1–0 Santos
  • 2021-10-10 Santos 1–0 Gremio
League standing · 2026
Santos#8 pos45 pts31 pl+2 GD
Gremio#18 pos31 pts31 pl-10 GD
Goals per game
Santos scored1.55
Gremio scored1.1
Santos conceded1.48
Gremio conceded1.42

See the full prediction

Pro members unlock every market for this match — result, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and player props — plus advanced & key match statistics, expected goals and value against the bookmakers.

Expected goals (xG)
Pro
Win probability & value
Pro
Try Pro for £1.00 — see all predictions

£1.00 for 14 days, then £9.99/month. Cancel in the trial and pay nothing more.

Frequently asked questions

What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Gremio?
In their last 6 meetings, Santos won 2, Gremio won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Santos and Gremio?
Recent form — Santos 3W 1D 1L; Gremio 0W 3D 2L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all predictions, advanced stats & value against the bookies with ProTry Pro for £1.00 →