Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense prediction

Serie A – Brazil · · Barradao

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Vitoria · Atletico Paranaense · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense, Serie A – Brazil on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 20:30 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.3% of 4315 landed (95% range 76–78.5%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Vitoria host Atletico Paranaense in Serie A – Brazil on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 20:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Vitoria or Atletico Paranaense (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Vitoria have scored in five consecutive matches.

Form and the table

Seven of Vitoria’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in four of Vitoria’s last 15 results (27%). At home, Vitoria have four wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 8 home matches — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.38 and conceding 1.38. Vitoria have scored 33 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Vitoria have conceded 44 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Nine of Atletico Paranaense’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Atletico Paranaense’s last 15 results (60%). Away from home, Atletico Paranaense have four wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 8 away matches — 1.75 points per game, scoring 1.88 and conceding 1.75. Atletico Paranaense have scored 49 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Atletico Paranaense have conceded 35 goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Vitoria (12th) and Atletico Paranaense (third) are 17 points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Atletico Paranaense the stronger side, 253 rating points above Vitoria (Atletico Paranaense 1737, Vitoria 1485, after at least 182 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 6 August 2026, finished Vitoria 4–0 Atletico Paranaense.

Team news

Predicted Vitoria XI (4-2-3-1): L. Arcanjo, L. Candido, Caca, Jamerson, Mateusinho, Erick, Matheuzinho, D. Tarzia, E. Martinez, C. Goncalves, Rene — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Ze Vitor (3.9 per match over 26 appearances, one goal) and Erick (3.5 per match over 34 appearances, eight goals and six assists) have been Vitoria’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Vitoria (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Ze Vitor averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 1754 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances. Erick averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 2381 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Atletico Paranaense XI (3-4-2-1): Mycael, A. Dias, F. Aguirre, Dantas, S. Mendoza, Jadson, L. Gustavo, Gilberto, G. Benavidez, L. Esquivel, K. Viveros — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, K. Viveros (4.5 per match over 33 appearances, 21 goals and four assists) and L. Esquivel (4.0 per match over 23 appearances, two goals and five assists) have been Atletico Paranaense’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Atletico Paranaense (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), K. Viveros averages 2.4 shots per 90 over 3063 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. L. Esquivel averages 2.5 tackles per 90 over 1866 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Serie A – Brazil · Barradao
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Vitoria 2 · draws 0 · Atletico Paranaense 4 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Vitoria 2W 1D 2L · Atletico Paranaense 2W 2D 1L

Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense (Serie A – Brazil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.25 / 2.38
Goals
against 1.5 / 2 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 5.75
Corners
against 4.38 / 6 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5 / 7.13
Shots on target
against 5.5 / 6.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 1.63
Cards
against 3.13 / 2.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameVitoria for / againstLineAtletico Paranaense for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.5our book
2.38 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
4.25 for · 4.38 against n 8
9.5standard
5.75 for · 6 against n 8
Shots
14.88 for · 15.88 against n 8
19.5standard
16 for · 18.5 against n 8
Shots on target
5 for · 5.5 against n 8
8.5standard
7.13 for · 6.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.63 for · 15.5 against n 8
21.5standard
12.5 for · 12.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 3.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 2.38 against n 8
Vitoria
Vitoria — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Marinho n 835
2.94/2
5.57/5
—
Ze Vitor n 871.4
2.87/5
1.75/4
—
Renato Kayzer n 829.1
2.34/2
1.52/1
—
Walace n 836.4
2.25/2
1.23/1
—
D. Tarzia n 868.5
2.17/5
3.37/6
—
Vitoria — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Rene n 864
2.66/4
1.23/2
Osvaldo n 813
2.63/0
00/0
Marinho n 835
2.34/2
0.62/0
Ze Vitor n 871.4
2.27/4
0.53/0
Lucas Silva n 826.6
2.12/1
0.81/1
Vitoria — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Matheuzinho n 874.4
0.31/1
0.52/1
Erick n 867.4
0.52/1
0.32/0
Rene n 864
0.73/1
00/0
Mateusinho n 865.5
00/0
0.32/0
Lucas Arcanjo n 890.6
00/0
0.11/0
Vitoria — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Ze Vitor n 871.4
4.78/7
Marinho n 835
4.57/3
T. Pochettino n 831.3
47/3
Edenilson n 826.9
2.94/1
Mateusinho n 865.5
2.78/4
Vitoria — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Lucas Arcanjo n 890.6
48/7
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto n 614.8
6.13/2
21/1
—
Renan Peixoto n 832.9
5.56/4
0.72/0
—
K. Viveros n 871.5
2.77/5
3.87/6
—
Leo n 876.8
2.17/4
0.32/0
—
Felipinho n 856.1
26/3
0.42/0
—
Atletico Paranaense — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto n 614.8
44/0
22/0
Renan Peixoto n 832.9
3.13/2
2.73/2
Leozinho n 852.6
2.87/4
1.34/2
K. Viveros n 871.5
2.77/5
26/5
João Cruz n 869.4
1.96/5
14/2
Atletico Paranaense — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
K. A. Calderon Vargas n 847.1
0.52/0
0.72/1
K. Viveros n 871.5
1.15/2
00/0
Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto n 614.8
11/0
00/0
Dudu Kogitzki n 827.3
0.41/0
0.41/0
João Cruz n 869.4
0.32/0
0.32/0
Atletico Paranaense — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
B. Zapelli n 818.8
3.64/2
L. Esquivel n 876.5
2.56/5
Dantas n 878.1
26/6
J. Portilla n 845
25/3
Jadson n 884.4
1.97/4
Atletico Paranaense — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Santos n 891.8
3.37/6
Mycael n 890.8
3.38/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
VitoriaWDLWL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Atletico ParanaenseDWDWL
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Vitoria 2 · 0 draws · Atletico Paranaense 4 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2026-08-06 Vitoria 4–0 Atletico Paranaense
  • 2026-08-04 Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Vitoria
  • 2026-04-26 Atletico Paranaense 3–1 Vitoria
  • 2024-11-02 Atletico Paranaense 1–2 Vitoria
  • 2024-06-30 Vitoria 0–1 Atletico Paranaense
  • 2018-11-17 Vitoria 1–2 Atletico Paranaense
League standing · 2026
Vitoria#12 pos36 pts30 pl-11 GD
Atletico Paranaense#3 pos53 pts30 pl+14 GD
Goals per game
Vitoria scored1.1
Atletico Paranaense scored1.63
Vitoria conceded1.47
Atletico Paranaense conceded1.17

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense?
In their last 6 meetings, Vitoria won 2, Atletico Paranaense won 4 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense?
Recent form — Vitoria 2W 1D 2L; Atletico Paranaense 2W 2D 1L.

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