Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe prediction

Süper Lig · · Rams Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Galatasaray · Fenerbahçe · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe, Süper Lig on Mon, 26 Oct 2026 18:30 GMT.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.9% of 624 landed (95% range 62.1–69.5%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 419 of 638 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.5%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Galatasaray host Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig on Monday 26 October (kick-off 18:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

12 of Galatasaray’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%).

Fenerbahçe have scored 22 goals, the most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Form and the table

Both teams scored in nine of Galatasaray’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Galatasaray have five wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.29 points per game, scoring 2.43 and conceding 1.57. Galatasaray have scored 17 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Galatasaray have conceded 11 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Nine of Fenerbahçe’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in seven of Fenerbahçe’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Fenerbahçe have four wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.86 points per game, scoring 1.29 and conceding 1.29. Fenerbahçe have conceded six goals, the second-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Galatasaray (first) and Fenerbahçe (third) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Fenerbahçe the stronger side, 77 rating points above Galatasaray (Fenerbahçe 1894, Galatasaray 1816, after at least 332 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 26 April 2026, finished Galatasaray 3–0 Fenerbahçe.

Team news

Predicted Galatasaray XI (4-2-3-1): U. Çakır, D. Sánchez, A. Bardakcı, R. Sallai, I. Jakobs, G. Sara, Y. Akgün, L. Torreira, B. Yılmaz, L. Sané, V. Osimhen — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Victor Osimhen (6.8 per match over eight appearances, seven goals and three assists) and Gabriel Sara (4.4 per match over 11 appearances, two goals and two assists) have been Galatasaray’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Galatasaray (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Victor Osimhen averages 6.1 shots per 90 over 580 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last eight appearances. Gabriel Sara averages 3.4 key passes per 90 over 797 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Fenerbahçe XI (4-2-3-1): Ederson, N. Aké, M. Škriniar, N. Semedo, A. Brown, M. Guendouzi, N. Kanté, M. Greenwood, İ. Kahveci, O. Aydın, V. Muriqi — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Talisca (5.3 per match over seven appearances, five goals) and Mason Greenwood (3.9 per match over 17 appearances, seven goals and four assists) have been Fenerbahçe’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Fenerbahçe (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Talisca averages 4.5 shots per 90 over 564 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last seven appearances. Mason Greenwood averages 1.9 key passes per 90 over 1197 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Süper Lig · Rams Park
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Galatasaray 3 · draws 2 · Fenerbahçe 1 · 2.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Galatasaray 3W 0D 2L · Fenerbahçe 3W 1D 1L

Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe (Süper Lig): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 22 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 2.25
Goals
against 2 / 1.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
6.5 / 4.5
Corners
against 3.75 / 5.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 5.5
Shots on target
against 4.75 / 5 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.25 / 2.25
Cards
against 2.13 / 1.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 21 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 21 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameGalatasaray for / againstLineFenerbahçe for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 2 against n 8
3.25our book
2.25 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
6.5 for · 3.75 against n 8
9.5standard
4.5 for · 5.13 against n 8
Shots
15.25 for · 13 against n 8
19.5standard
15.75 for · 14.63 against n 8
Shots on target
5.38 for · 4.75 against n 8
8.5standard
5.5 for · 5 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.63 for · 12.25 against n 8
21.5standard
11.5 for · 12.38 against n 8
Cards shown
2.25 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
2.25 for · 1.38 against n 8
Galatasaray
Galatasaray — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
D. Gül n 822.1
2.53/1
0.51/0
—
M. Lemina n 852.4
1.94/3
0.63/0
—
E. Elmalı n 851.8
1.75/2
0.21/0
—
Renato Nhaga n 827
1.73/1
55/3
—
R. Sallai n 879.5
1.67/3
1.37/2
—
Galatasaray — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
V. Osimhen n 872.5
6.17/6
3.17/5
D. Gül n 822.1
2.54/1
12/0
Gabriel Sara n 868
2.37/5
0.85/0
L. Sané n 845.5
25/3
0.21/0
Rafael Leão n 859.8
1.54/2
0.83/1
Galatasaray — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
V. Osimhen n 872.5
1.15/2
0.53/0
A. Batrakov n 863
0.42/0
0.42/0
B. Yılmaz n 868.9
0.32/0
0.21/0
K. Karataş n 861.1
00/0
0.42/0
Renato Nhaga n 827
0.41/0
00/0
Galatasaray — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Lemina n 852.4
2.46/4
E. Elmalı n 851.8
2.44/4
L. Torreira n 877.8
2.27/3
L. Ugochukwu n 830.6
2.24/2
K. Karataş n 861.1
24/3
Galatasaray — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
U. Çakır n 889.6
3.87/5
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
İ. Yüksek n 852.6
2.46/4
1.35/1
—
R. Lukaku n 833.6
1.73/1
0.71/1
—
N. Dorgeles n 819.8
1.72/1
0.61/0
—
A. Brown n 879.8
1.66/3
1.76/3
—
İ. Kahveci n 854.6
1.64/2
14/1
—
Fenerbahçe — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Dorgeles n 819.8
45/2
1.12/0
R. Lukaku n 833.6
3.36/3
1.34/0
M. Greenwood n 882.3
3.18/7
1.25/2
V. Muriqi n 865.6
2.76/4
2.25/3
O. Aydın n 859.8
2.66/4
0.84/0
Fenerbahçe — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
V. Muriqi n 865.6
13/1
00/0
R. Lukaku n 833.6
0.72/0
0.31/0
K. Aktürkoğlu n 850
0.21/0
0.73/0
O. Aydın n 859.8
0.42/0
0.42/0
İ. Kahveci n 854.6
0.42/0
0.41/1
Fenerbahçe — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
İ. Yüksek n 852.6
5.17/5
N. Dorgeles n 819.8
5.15/2
M. Müldür n 847.5
3.36/3
N. Kanté n 884.4
2.36/4
L. Mercan n 838.8
25/1
Fenerbahçe — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Ederson n 890
3.57/5

The day’s free picks, by email

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
GalatasarayLWLWW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.8 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
FenerbahçeWWLWD
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 3.2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Galatasaray 3 · 2 draws · Fenerbahçe 1 · 2.33 goals/game
  • 2026-04-26 Galatasaray 3–0 Fenerbahçe
  • 2026-01-10 Galatasaray 0–2 Fenerbahçe
  • 2025-12-01 Fenerbahçe 1–1 Galatasaray
  • 2025-04-02 Fenerbahçe 1–2 Galatasaray
  • 2025-02-24 Galatasaray 0–0 Fenerbahçe
  • 2024-09-21 Fenerbahçe 1–3 Galatasaray
League standing · 2026/27
Galatasaray#1 pos19 pts8 pl+6 GD
Fenerbahçe#3 pos16 pts8 pl+16 GD
Goals per game
Galatasaray scored2.13
Fenerbahçe scored2.75
Galatasaray conceded1.38
Fenerbahçe conceded0.75

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe?
In their last 6 meetings, Galatasaray won 3, Fenerbahçe won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe?
Recent form — Galatasaray 3W 0D 2L; Fenerbahçe 3W 1D 1L.

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