União Santarém v GIL Vicente prediction

What the model says

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick — a Bronze-tier call across 19 priced markets; the full forecast, probabilities and value against the bookmakers are part of Pro.

The shape of the game

At home, União Santarém have five wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 9 home matches — 1.78 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 0.67.

At away, GIL Vicente have one win, three draws and three defeats in their last 7 away matches — 0.86 points per game, scoring 0.57 and conceding 1.29.

TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have GIL Vicente the stronger side, 205 rating points above União Santarém (1711 v 1915, after at least 13 rated matches each).

Form and momentum

Eight of União Santarém’s last 13 results went over 2.5 goals (62%). Both teams scored in five of União Santarém’s last 13 results (38%).

Six of GIL Vicente’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in five of GIL Vicente’s last 15 results (33%).

Players to watch

By TACTIX Impact, Murilo (3.0 per match over six appearances, one goal) and Santi García (2.9 per match over five appearances) have been GIL Vicente’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for GIL Vicente: Murilo 2.0 key passes per 90 (403 minutes), a key pass in 2 of the last 6 appearances; Santi García 1.6 key passes per 90 (396 minutes), a key pass in 5 of the last 5 appearances (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off).