Free model picks
Taça de Portugal predictions: free model picks, graded
14 Taça de Portugal fixtures kick off in the next 10 days, starting with União Santarém v GIL Vicente (Wed, 14 Oct 2026 19:00 BST). 2 of them carry a free TACTIX model pick, shown with the best bookmaker price.
A free TACTIX model pick for every upcoming Taça de Portugal fixture, with the best bookmaker price. Our model is calibrated to ±0.7% across 8M+ settled predictions — the full win probability, xG and value across 30+ markets are part of Pro.
Updated · picks refresh daily · live track record
AVS are unbeaten in their last 7 (all competitions we cover)
Nacional have lost their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
União de Leiria have scored in their last 6 (all competitions we cover)
What the data says about Taça de Portugal
TACTIX lists 14 upcoming Taça de Portugal fixtures in the next ten days, 2 of them with a free model pick — the single strongest lean in the 62–80% probability band — shown with the best bookmaker price at build time. Across the whole estate the model runs at ±0.7% mean calibration error across a 8M+-prediction track record; the record is published live, losing predictions included, on the scoreboard and as a hash-chained pre-commitment ledger, so any pick can be checked against what was written before kick-off. In Taça de Portugal specifically, the last 30 days of settled free picks read 30 from 40, every result kept. Expected goals, venue-adjusted team ratings and market prices feed one calibrated probability per market; a prediction is a probability, never a certainty. This page is regenerated daily (figures as of 10 Oct 2026) and every number in this paragraph is computed at build time, never typed in. Scoreboard · Ledger · How accurate is TACTIX?
This matchweek in numbers
14 fixtures in Taça de Portugal fall inside the next 10 days, starting with União Santarém v GIL Vicente (Wed, 14 Oct 2026 19:00 BST). TACTIX’s free pick is posted on 2 of the 14 fixtures in the next 10 days; the remaining markets on every match are Pro. Recent record: the free Taça de Portugal pick landed 30 of 40 over the last 30 days (every pick graded as shown).
Taça de Portugal at a glance
Long-run averages the model fits for Taça de Portugal — the baseline every Taça de Portugal match starts from before team form.
Model record · last 30 days
How the free (Bronze) Taça de Portugal pick shown on each match has settled over the last 30 days — every result, win or lose. 1-unit flat stakes at the price shown.
How these picks work
Each card shows the model’s free pick and the best price we can find across UK bookmakers. We surface one pick per match free; the complete forecast — calibrated win probability, expected goals and value vs the market — opens with TACTIX Pro. We lead with calibration, not an inflated accuracy headline, and the live record (losers included) is on the scoreboard.
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See the full forecast
Win probability, xG and value across 30+ markets for every fixture.