Football Score Probability Calculator

Enter each team’s expected goals and the calculator gives the chance of every scoreline. It treats each side’s goals as independent Poisson counts — the classic starting point for football score models — and adds up the grid into home win, draw, away win, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Example inputs shown.

Home win 46.4% · Draw 25.8% · Away win 27.8% · Over 2.5 goals 48.2% · Both teams score 51.8%

Home ↓ / Away →012345
07.4%8.2%4.5%1.6%0.5%0.1%
111.1%12.3%6.7%2.5%0.7%0.1%
28.4%9.2%5.1%1.9%0.5%0.1%
34.2%4.6%2.5%0.9%0.3%0.1%
41.6%1.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%
50.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

What Does the TACTIX Model Give the Next Covered Match?

Chelsea v Manchester United (Premier League, kick-off 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK): the model’s six most likely scores, as published .

ScoreModel probability
1–19.9%
2–17.9%
1–27.4%
1–06.3%
2–25.9%
0–15.6%

These are the probabilities the model published for this match; the calculator above is a simpler, independent Poisson illustration. Probabilities, not predictions of a result.

Where Do Expected Goals Come From?

Expected goals (xG) estimate how many goals a side’s chances are worth. The method behind the TACTIX model is on the methodology page, its record on how accurate is TACTIX, and its match probabilities on the league hubs, starting with the Premier League.

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18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties, and nothing here is betting advice. Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.org.