Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe prediction
Team pages: Aston Villa · Fenerbahçe
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Draw or Away the free pick for Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe, UEFA Champions League on Wed, 14 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.
The match
Aston Villa host Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 14 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is the draw or Fenerbahçe, a Bronze-tier call.
The key numbers
Aston Villa have scored in five consecutive matches. 13 of Aston Villa’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (87%).
Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in their last four matches.
Form and the table
Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last three matches. Both teams scored in 10 of Aston Villa’s last 15 results (67%). At home, Aston Villa have two wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 6 home matches — 1.17 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.50.
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches. Seven of Fenerbahçe’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Fenerbahçe’s last 15 results (53%). Away from home, Fenerbahçe have four wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 7 away matches — 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.43 and conceding 0.57.
Aston Villa (ninth) and Fenerbahçe (20th) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Aston Villa the stronger side, 234 rating points above Fenerbahçe (Aston Villa 2002, Fenerbahçe 1768, after at least 13 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 22 January 2026, finished Fenerbahçe 0–1 Aston Villa.
Team news
Aston Villa have six names on the availability list: A. Onana (out, Knee Injury), I. Maatsen (out, Ankle Injury), M. Cisse (out, Off the roster), T. Harwood-Bellis (out, Off the roster), L. Goretzka (doubtful, Knee Injury) and M. Ruggeri (doubtful, Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-12. By TACTIX Impact, Johan Manzambi (4.7 per match over four appearances, one goal and two assists) and John McGinn (4.4 per match over nine appearances, two goals and three assists) have been Aston Villa’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Aston Villa (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Johan Manzambi averages 1.9 key passes per 90 over 878 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. John McGinn averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1499 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.
Fenerbahçe have six names on the availability list: A. Diouf (out, Off the roster), A. Fall (out, Off the roster), J. Oosterwolde (out, Achilles Tendon Injury), M. Guendouzi (out, Red Card), M. Muldur (out, Knee Injury) and M. Yandas (out, Off the roster) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-12. By TACTIX Impact, Talisca (5.3 per match over seven appearances, five goals) and Archibald Brown (4.2 per match over 11 appearances, two goals and one assist) have been Fenerbahçe’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Fenerbahçe (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Talisca averages 4.5 shots per 90 over 564 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last seven appearances. Archibald Brown averages 2.0 tackles per 90 over 931 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · UEFA Champions League · Villa Park
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 1): Aston Villa 1 · draws 0 · Fenerbahçe 0 · 1 goals/game
- Recent form: Aston Villa 3W 1D 1L · Fenerbahçe 2W 2D 1L
Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe (UEFA Champions League): TACTIX’s calibrated model has priced this fixture across 246 markets — the full record, losers included, is published live (as of 12 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Aston Villa for / against | Line | Fenerbahçe for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.5 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 3our book | 2.63 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 3.88 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 5.25 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 13.38 for · 15.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 15.38 for · 13.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.63 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 6.5 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 11.25 for · 13.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 12.75 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.38 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Gomes n 8 | 81.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | — |
| George Hemmings n 8 | 70.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | — |
| M. Cash n 8 | 73.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | — |
| B. Kamara n 8 | 84.3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | — |
| E. Buendía n 8 | 70.3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Manzambi n 8 | 59 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| E. Buendía n 8 | 70.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| N. Jackson n 8 | 63.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| I. Mbaye n 8 | 35.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| R. Barkley n 8 | 54.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Manzambi n 8 | 59 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| T. Abraham n 8 | 30.8 | 0.7 | 0 |
| J. McGinn n 8 | 85.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| I. Mbaye n 8 | 35.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Alysson Edward n 8 | 18.4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| João Gomes n 8 | 81.8 | 4 |
| A. Wan-Bissaka n 8 | 56.1 | 3.8 |
| A. Garnacho n 8 | 30.6 | 3.3 |
| L. Bogarde n 8 | 42.6 | 2.6 |
| R. Barkley n 8 | 54.5 | 2.5 |
Fenerbahçe
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| İ. Yüksek n 8 | 65.1 | 1.9 | 1 | — |
| M. Guendouzi n 8 | 85.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | — |
| L. Mercan n 8 | 34.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | — |
| V. Muriqi n 8 | 68.8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | — |
| İ. Kahveci n 8 | 51.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Talisca n 8 | 80.5 | 4.6 | 2.9 |
| M. Greenwood n 8 | 83.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| V. Muriqi n 8 | 68.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| R. Lukaku n 8 | 30.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| K. Aktürkoğlu n 8 | 53.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| O. Aydın n 8 | 38.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| İ. Kahveci n 8 | 51.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| M. Greenwood n 8 | 83.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| V. Muriqi n 8 | 68.8 | 0.8 | 0 |
| R. Lukaku n 8 | 30.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| İ. Yüksek n 8 | 65.1 | 4.7 |
| M. Müldür n 8 | 47.5 | 3.3 |
| B. Elmaz n 8 | 41.9 | 3 |
| N. Kanté n 8 | 81 | 2.8 |
| L. Mercan n 8 | 34.8 | 2.3 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Ederson n 8 | 90 | 3.5 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-01-22 Fenerbahçe 0–1 Aston Villa
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe is Draw or Away (best price 2.25 at Bet365).
- What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe?
- In their last 1 meetings, Aston Villa won 1, Fenerbahçe won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 1 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe?
- Recent form — Aston Villa 3W 1D 1L; Fenerbahçe 2W 2D 1L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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