Bayern München v Arsenal prediction
Team pages: Bayern München · Arsenal
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Bayern München vs Arsenal, UEFA Champions League on Wed, 21 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.
The match
Bayern München host Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 21 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 15 matches — every result checked. Bayern München have scored in six consecutive matches. 12 of Bayern München’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (80%).
Form and the table
Both teams scored in 10 of Bayern München’s last 15 results (67%). At home, Bayern München have six wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 8 home matches — 2.50 points per game, scoring 4.38 and conceding 0.88.
Eight of Arsenal’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in five of Arsenal’s last 15 results (33%). Away from home, Arsenal have six wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 8 away matches — 2.38 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 0.88.
Bayern München (10th) and Arsenal (seventh) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Arsenal the stronger side, 86 rating points above Bayern München (Arsenal 2257, Bayern München 2171, after at least 41 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
Arsenal are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Bayern München, every meeting checked. The most recent meeting, on 26 November 2025, finished Arsenal 3–1 Bayern München.
Team news
Predicted Bayern München XI (4-4-2): M. Neuer, K. Laimer, J. Tah, D. Upamecano, A. Davies, J. Kimmich, M. Olise, L. Díaz, T. Bischof, H. Kane, A. Pavlović — derived from the last 2 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Michael Olise (10.0 per match over 10 appearances, nine goals and four assists) and Harry Kane (7.7 per match over 10 appearances, nine goals and six assists) have been Bayern München’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bayern München (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Michael Olise averages 3.4 key passes per 90 over 1820 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Harry Kane averages 3.4 shots per 90 over 1861 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Arsenal XI (4-4-2): D. Raya, E. Konsa, G. Magalhães, B. White, P. Hincapié, D. Rice, E. Eze, M. Merino, B. Guimarães, V. Gyökeres, M. Ødegaard — derived from the last 2 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Bukayo Saka (5.1 per match over nine appearances, four goals and one assist) and Martin Ødegaard (3.8 per match over 10 appearances, four goals) have been Arsenal’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Arsenal (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bukayo Saka averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 1264 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Martin Ødegaard averages 2.2 key passes per 90 over 1595 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · UEFA Champions League · Allianz Arena
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 3): Bayern München 1 · draws 1 · Arsenal 1 · 3 goals/game
- Recent form: Bayern München 3W 2D 0L · Arsenal 4W 0D 1L
Bayern München v Arsenal (UEFA Champions League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Bayern München for / against | Line | Arsenal for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 3.63 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5 | 3our book | 1.88 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 9.75 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 4.25 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 24.63 for · 6.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 14 for · 9.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 10.25 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 5.75 for · 3 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 9.38 for · 8.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 11.25 for · 14.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.13 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.25 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
Bayern München
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Ito n 8 | 61.5 | 2.2 | 0.2 | — |
| K. Laimer n 8 | 66.5 | 1.9 | 1 | — |
| I. Saibari n 8 | 50 | 1.8 | 0.2 | — |
| J. Musiala n 8 | 60.5 | 1.5 | 2.8 | — |
| D. Upamecano n 8 | 78.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| M. Olise n 8 | 69.3 | 4.2 | 3.2 |
| H. Kane n 8 | 77.8 | 4.1 | 2.6 |
| S. Gnabry n 8 | 33.4 | 3.7 | 2 |
| I. Saibari n 8 | 50 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| T. Bischof n 8 | 49.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| H. Kane n 8 | 77.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| M. Olise n 8 | 69.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| J. Musiala n 8 | 60.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| L. Díaz n 8 | 75.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| T. Bischof n 8 | 49.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| S. Boey n 8 | 49.8 | 2.9 |
| T. Bischof n 8 | 49.4 | 2.7 |
| Bara Ndiaye n 7 | 38.4 | 2.3 |
| K. Laimer n 8 | 66.5 | 2.2 |
| Kim Min-Jae n 8 | 74 | 2.1 |
Arsenal
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Merino n 8 | 36.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | — |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly n 8 | 63 | 2 | 3.2 | — |
| Gabriel Magalhães n 8 | 78.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 | — |
| Martín Zubimendi n 8 | 32.4 | 1.4 | 0 | — |
| E. Konsa n 8 | 84.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bukayo Saka n 8 | 75.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| Eberechi Eze n 8 | 51 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| Bruno Guimarães n 8 | 59.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| K. Havertz n 8 | 60.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Noni Madueke n 8 | 47 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Merino n 8 | 36.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| Bukayo Saka n 8 | 75.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Viktor Gyökeres n 8 | 68 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Martín Zubimendi n 8 | 32.4 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Max Dowman n 8 | 31.9 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Ben White n 8 | 70.3 | 2.6 |
| Bruno Guimarães n 8 | 59.5 | 2.6 |
| Piero Hincapié n 8 | 51.4 | 2.4 |
| Marli Salmon n 5 | 41.2 | 2.2 |
| J. Timber n 8 | 48.8 | 2.1 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| David Raya n 8 | 90 | 2 |
| Kepa Arrizabalaga n 8 | 89.6 | 1.6 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Bayern München v Arsenal — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2025-11-26 Arsenal 3–1 Bayern München
- 2024-04-17 Bayern Munich 1–0 Arsenal
- 2024-04-09 Arsenal 2–2 Bayern Munich
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Bayern München vs Arsenal?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Bayern München v Arsenal is Over 2.5 goals.
- What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Arsenal?
- In their last 3 meetings, Bayern München won 1, Arsenal won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Bayern München and Arsenal?
- Recent form — Bayern München 3W 2D 0L; Arsenal 4W 0D 1L.
Today’s boards
Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.
This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.