Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund prediction

UEFA Champions League · · Baku Olympic Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund, UEFA Champions League on Tue, 20 Oct 2026 17:45 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.47 at Betano
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.7% of 641 landed (95% range 61.9–69.3%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Sabah FA host Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 20 October (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

Form and the table

Eight of Sabah FA’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in six of Sabah FA’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). At home, Sabah FA have six wins, no draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.57 points per game, scoring 2.57 and conceding 0.71.

Nine of Borussia Dortmund’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in six of Borussia Dortmund’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have four wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.63 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 0.75.

Borussia Dortmund are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Sabah FA (22nd) and Borussia Dortmund (18th) are level on points, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Sabah FA the stronger side, 35 rating points above Borussia Dortmund (Sabah FA 1690, Borussia Dortmund 1655, after at least 10 rated matches each).

Team news

Predicted Sabah FA XI (4-2-3-1): S. Pokatilov, T. Puchacz, A. Zedadka, R. Daşdəmirov, S. Solvet, I. Lepinjica, V. Simić, U. Rahmonaliyev, A. Isaev, K. Parris, J. Mickels — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Joy-Lance Mickels (5.2 per match over seven appearances, four goals and one assist) and Tymoteusz Puchacz (4.3 per match over seven appearances, three assists) have been Sabah FA’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Sabah FA (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Joy-Lance Mickels averages 3.1 shots per 90 over 642 minutes, with a shot in six of the last seven appearances. Tymoteusz Puchacz averages 1.8 tackles per 90 over 700 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last eight appearances.

Borussia Dortmund have four names on the availability list: E. Can (out, Knee Injury), G. Konstantelias (out, Knee Injury), J. Lerma (out, Muscle Injury) and K. Karetsas (doubtful, Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-18. Predicted Borussia Dortmund XI (4-4-2): G. Kobel, W. Anton, K. Gadou, R. Bensebaïni, D. Svensson, M. Beier, J. Veerman, F. Nmecha, J. Bellingham, S. Guirassy, M. Sabitzer — derived from the last 2 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Nico Schlotterbeck (6.4 per match over four appearances, one goal) and Waldemar Anton (4.8 per match over 10 appearances, one assist) have been Borussia Dortmund’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Borussia Dortmund (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Nico Schlotterbeck averages 2.7 tackles per 90 over 932 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances. Waldemar Anton averages 2.3 tackles per 90 over 1131 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · UEFA Champions League · Baku Olympic Stadium
  • Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Sabah FA 3W 0D 2L · Borussia Dortmund 2W 2D 1L

Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2 / 2.13
Goals
against 1.25 / 0.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
5 / 7.75
Corners
against 4.83 / 5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 6 matches
6.17 / 5.88
Shots on target
against 6.33 / 3.13 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 6 matches
1.33 / 2
Cards
against 3 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 6 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameSabah FA for / againstLineBorussia Dortmund for / against
Goals scored
2 for · 1.25 against n 8
3.5our book
2.13 for · 0.88 against n 8
Corners won
5 for · 4.83 against n 6
9.5standard
7.75 for · 5 against n 8
Shots
18.17 for · 15.83 against n 6
19.5standard
16.5 for · 11 against n 8
Shots on target
6.17 for · 6.33 against n 6
8.5standard
5.88 for · 3.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
13 for · 12.33 against n 6
21.5standard
10.63 for · 9.88 against n 8
Cards shown
1.33 for · 3 against n 6
3.5standard
2 for · 1.88 against n 8
Sabah FA
Sabah FA — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Xaybulayev n 838.4
3.84/3
1.84/2
—
Y. Lachaab n 55.8
3.11/0
00/0
—
K. Parris n 648.7
2.24/2
0.93/0
—
X. Severina n 827.3
1.73/1
1.23/0
—
Erivaldo Almeida n 869.5
1.55/3
0.53/0
—
Sabah FA — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
C. Nwachukwu n 530.8
3.54/1
1.83/0
J. Mickels n 791.7
3.16/5
1.35/2
P. Mbina n 844
2.85/3
1.33/1
A. Xaybulayev n 838.4
2.35/2
0.61/1
X. Severina n 827.3
2.13/1
1.23/0
Sabah FA — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
P. Mbina n 844
0.31/0
0.83/0
T. Mütəllimov n 550.8
0.41/0
0.41/0
J. Mickels n 791.7
0.64/0
0.11/0
C. Nwachukwu n 530.8
0.61/0
00/0
A. Isaev n 866.8
00/0
0.52/1
Sabah FA — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Xaybulayev n 838.4
56/3
C. Nwachukwu n 530.8
4.73/2
I. Lepinjica n 891.6
3.77/6
Y. Lachaab n 55.8
3.11/0
S. Solvet n 892
2.37/5
Sabah FA — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Stas Pokatilov n 894.4
3.97/7
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Konstantinos Karetsas n 850.8
26/2
1.65/2
—
M. Albert n 731.7
24/1
2.44/2
—
C. Chukwuemeka n 827.6
25/0
2.95/2
—
Joey Veerman n 859.5
1.96/4
0.42/0
—
J. Ryerson n 867.6
1.77/3
14/2
—
Borussia Dortmund — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Fábio Silva n 841.1
36/2
1.94/2
S. Guirassy n 880.1
2.88/6
1.55/4
M. Sabitzer n 840.4
2.23/2
0.61/1
S. Inacio n 854.8
2.14/3
1.24/2
E. Nwaneri n 853.3
2.16/3
1.34/2
Borussia Dortmund — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Fábio Silva n 841.1
0.83/0
0.52/0
S. Guirassy n 880.1
0.63/1
0.32/0
S. Inacio n 854.8
0.62/1
00/0
M. Sabitzer n 840.4
00/0
0.62/0
F. Nmecha n 868.5
0.52/1
00/0
Borussia Dortmund — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Kauã Prates n 824.4
4.25/3
N. Schlotterbeck n 882.8
37/4
W. Anton n 890
2.97/6
J. Bellingham n 870.6
2.77/4
R. Bensebaïni n 869
2.44/4
Borussia Dortmund — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Meyer n 890
2.64/4
G. Kobel n 890
1.44/1

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Sabah FAWLWLW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Borussia DortmundWWDLD
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
Sabah FA#22 pos3 pts2 pl-2 GD
Borussia Dortmund#18 pos3 pts2 pl0 GD
Goals per game
Sabah FA scored1
Borussia Dortmund scored1.5
Sabah FA conceded2
Borussia Dortmund conceded1.5

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.47 at Betano).
What is the recent form of Sabah FA and Borussia Dortmund?
Recent form — Sabah FA 3W 0D 2L; Borussia Dortmund 2W 2D 1L.

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