Ajax v Atalanta prediction
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Ajax v Atalanta, UEFA Europa Conference League on Thu, 22 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.
The match
Ajax host Atalanta in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 22 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
13 of Ajax’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (87%). Both teams scored in 13 of Ajax’s last 15 results in all competitions (87%).
Ajax have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.
Form and the table
At home, Ajax have three wins, three draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.71 points per game, scoring 2.57 and conceding 1.86.
Eight of Atalanta’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Atalanta’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Atalanta have two wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.43 and conceding 1.86.
Ajax (25th) and Atalanta (fourth) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far.
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 9 December 2020, finished Ajax 0–1 Atalanta.
Team news
Predicted Ajax XI (4-3-3): M. Paes, A. Bouwman, D. Blind, Y. Baas, O. Wijndal, Y. Regeer, D. Klaassen, J. Brandt, S. Berghuis, M. Leonardo, T. Arokodare — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Mika Godts (8.0 per match over four appearances, one goal and three assists) and T. Kehrer (4.7 per match over six appearances, one goal and two assists) have been Ajax’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Ajax (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Mika Godts averages 2.2 shots per 90 over 842 minutes, with a shot in six of the last 10 appearances. T. Kehrer averages 1.6 tackles per 90 over 452 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last seven appearances.
Predicted Atalanta XI (4-3-3): M. Carnesecchi, L. Bernasconi, O. Kossounou, R. Bellanova, S. Kolašinac, G. Gaetano, Éderson, L. Samardžić, G. Scamacca, N. Zalewski, G. Raspadori — derived from the last 3 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Marco Carnesecchi (3.4 per match over 10 appearances) and Lazar Samardžić (3.3 per match over 10 appearances, one goal) have been Atalanta’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Atalanta (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Marco Carnesecchi averages 4.2 saves per 90 over 900 minutes, with two or more saves in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Lazar Samardžić averages 2.8 key passes per 90 over 664 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · UEFA Europa Conference League · Johan Cruijff Arena
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 2): Ajax 0 · draws 1 · Atalanta 1 · 2.5 goals/game
- Recent form: Ajax 2W 2D 1L · Atalanta 2W 0D 3L
Ajax v Atalanta (UEFA Europa Conference League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Ajax for / against | Line | Atalanta for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 3 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 6.5 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 4 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 21.13 for · 10.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 14.13 for · 15.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 8.25 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.5 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 10.13 for · 11.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 11.13 for · 9 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.75 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
Ajax
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Mokio n 8 | 72.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | — |
| V. Tsygankov n 8 | 63.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | — |
| A. Gaaei n 8 | 79.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | — |
| D. Janse n 8 | 64.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | — |
| Lucas Rosa n 8 | 68.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| T. Arokodare n 8 | 61.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 |
| Marcos Leonardo n 8 | 35.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| A. Ouazane n 8 | 29.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 |
| K. Dolberg n 8 | 56.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| S. Berghuis n 8 | 67.6 | 3 | 1.5 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| K. Dolberg n 8 | 56.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| T. Arokodare n 8 | 61.5 | 1.1 | 0 |
| D. Klaassen n 8 | 56.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| J. Brandt n 8 | 80.1 | 0.7 | 0 |
| T. Kehrer n 8 | 59.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| S. Amrabat n 8 | 58.9 | 2.9 |
| Jofre Torrents n 6 | 32.2 | 2.8 |
| A. Gaaei n 8 | 79.5 | 2.7 |
| Lucas Rosa n 8 | 68.6 | 2.6 |
| J. Mokio n 8 | 72.8 | 2.3 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. ter Stegen n 8 | 90 | 3.6 |
| M. Paes n 8 | 94.6 | 2.4 |
Atalanta
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Cassa n 4 | 11.3 | 6 | 2 | — |
| E. Elmas n 8 | 76.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | — |
| F. Kessie n 8 | 74 | 1.8 | 0.5 | — |
| G. Raspadori n 8 | 49.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | — |
| Éderson n 8 | 77.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| N. Krstović n 8 | 76.4 | 4 | 2.1 |
| Gianluca Scamacca n 8 | 38.5 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| G. Raspadori n 8 | 49.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| J. Rowe n 8 | 66.8 | 2.2 | 1 |
| L. Samardžić n 8 | 53.6 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| N. Krstović n 8 | 76.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Gianluca Scamacca n 8 | 38.5 | 0.9 | 0 |
| G. Raspadori n 8 | 49.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| N. Zalewski n 8 | 57.5 | 0 | 0.6 |
| C. De Ketelaere n 8 | 72.4 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| L. Samardžić n 8 | 53.6 | 2.3 |
| G. Gaetano n 8 | 64.1 | 1.8 |
| G. Scalvini n 8 | 79 | 1.6 |
| O. Kossounou n 8 | 90 | 1.5 |
| F. Kessie n 8 | 74 | 1.5 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. Carnesecchi n 8 | 90 | 3.9 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Ajax v Atalanta — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2020-12-09 Ajax 0–1 Atalanta
- 2020-10-27 Atalanta 2–2 Ajax
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Ajax v Atalanta?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Ajax v Atalanta is Over 2.5 goals.
- What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Atalanta?
- In their last 2 meetings, Ajax won 0, Atalanta won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Ajax and Atalanta?
- Recent form — Ajax 2W 2D 1L; Atalanta 2W 0D 3L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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