Atalanta v Pafos prediction
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Draw or Away the free pick for Atalanta vs Pafos, UEFA Europa Conference League on Thu, 15 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.
The match
Atalanta host Pafos in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is the draw or Pafos, a Bronze-tier call.
Form and the table
Six of Atalanta’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in nine of Atalanta’s last 15 results (60%). At home, Atalanta have three wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 0.75.
Pafos are unbeaten in their last three matches. Five of Pafos’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (33%). Both teams scored in seven of Pafos’s last 15 results (47%). Away from home, Pafos have no wins, three draws and four defeats in their last 7 away matches — 0.43 points per game, scoring 0.14 and conceding 1.00.
Team news
By TACTIX Impact, Lazar Samardžić (3.6 per match over eight appearances, one goal) and Jonathan Rowe (3.5 per match over three appearances) have been Atalanta’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Atalanta (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Lazar Samardžić averages 2.9 key passes per 90 over 566 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Jonathan Rowe averages 2.6 shots per 90 over 280 minutes.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · UEFA Europa Conference League · New Balance Arena
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Recent form: Atalanta 2W 0D 3L · Pafos 2W 2D 1L
As of 13 October 2026, TACTIX’s model — calibration published live, losing picks included — covers Atalanta v Pafos across 246 markets; the key numbers are on this page. See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Atalanta for / against | Line | Pafos for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.13 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5 | 3our book | 1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 3.88 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 3.29 for · 6.14 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Shots | 13 for · 16.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 8 for · 7 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.63 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 3.71 for · 3 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 10.63 for · 10.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 12.17 for · 11.83 against n 6 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 0.88 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 3.14 for · 2.71 against n 7 Last 5 |
Atalanta
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Cassa n 4 | 11.3 | 6 | 2 | — |
| E. Elmas n 8 | 69.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | — |
| Gianluca Scamacca n 8 | 36.3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | — |
| F. Kessie n 8 | 74 | 1.8 | 0.5 | — |
| N. Zalewski n 8 | 60.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| N. Krstović n 8 | 70.8 | 3.8 | 2.1 |
| Gianluca Scamacca n 8 | 36.3 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| J. Rowe n 8 | 65 | 2.3 | 1 |
| L. Samardžić n 8 | 51.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| G. Raspadori n 8 | 58 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Scamacca n 8 | 36.3 | 0.9 | 0 |
| N. Krstović n 8 | 70.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| N. Zalewski n 8 | 60.1 | 0 | 0.6 |
| C. De Ketelaere n 8 | 75 | 0 | 0.5 |
| J. Rowe n 8 | 65 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| L. Samardžić n 8 | 51.6 | 2.2 |
| G. Gaetano n 8 | 71.5 | 1.7 |
| G. Scalvini n 8 | 79 | 1.6 |
| O. Kossounou n 8 | 90 | 1.5 |
| F. Kessie n 8 | 74 | 1.5 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. Carnesecchi n 8 | 90 | 4.4 |
Pafos
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lele n 8 | 26.6 | 3 | 1.3 | — |
| Bruno Felipe n 8 | 85.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | — |
| I. Sunjic n 8 | 47.6 | 2.8 | 0.5 | — |
| N. Ioannou n 8 | 62.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | — |
| Anderson Silva n 8 | 50.4 | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lele n 8 | 26.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 |
| M. Orsic n 8 | 39.3 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| M. Bassouamina n 8 | 14.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Anderson Silva n 8 | 50.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| N. Moumi Ngamaleu n 8 | 68 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| K. Sema n 8 | 44 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| K. Pileas n 8 | 48.6 | 0 | 0.5 |
| N. Moumi Ngamaleu n 8 | 68 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Anderson Silva n 8 | 50.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
| D. Luckassen n 8 | 83 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Bruno Felipe n 8 | 85.5 | 3.6 |
| N. Ioannou n 8 | 62.4 | 2.7 |
| Domingos Quina n 8 | 51 | 2.6 |
| I. Sunjic n 8 | 47.6 | 2.6 |
| Bruno Langa n 8 | 84 | 2.4 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| J. Gorter n 8 | 84.3 | 2.8 |
The day’s free picks, by email
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Atalanta v Pafos — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Atalanta vs Pafos?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Atalanta v Pafos is Draw or Away (best price 3.25 at Bet365).
- What is the recent form of Atalanta and Pafos?
- Recent form — Atalanta 2W 0D 3L; Pafos 2W 2D 1L.
Today’s boards
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.