Benfica v Celtic prediction
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Benfica vs Celtic, UEFA Europa League on Thu, 15 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.
The match
Benfica host Celtic in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Benfica to win.
The key numbers
Benfica have scored in 15 consecutive matches — every result checked. 12 of Benfica’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (80%).
Form and the table
Both teams scored in nine of Benfica’s last 15 results (60%). At home, Benfica have six wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 7 home matches — 2.71 points per game, scoring 3.29 and conceding 0.86.
11 of Celtic’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in seven of Celtic’s last 15 results (47%). Away from home, Celtic have five wins, no draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches — 2.14 points per game, scoring 2.14 and conceding 1.43.
Benfica (seventh) and Celtic (28th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Benfica the stronger side, 342 rating points above Celtic (Benfica 1945, Celtic 1603, after at least 29 rated matches each).
Team news
By TACTIX Impact, G. Prestianni (7.5 per match over nine appearances, five goals and three assists) and Vangelis Pavlidis (7.1 per match over nine appearances, eight goals and three assists) have been Benfica’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Benfica (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), G. Prestianni averages 2.8 key passes per 90 over 783 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Vangelis Pavlidis averages 2.7 shots per 90 over 1095 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last 10 appearances.
By TACTIX Impact, Yang Hyun-Jun (5.3 per match over seven appearances, two goals and one assist) and B. Nygren (5.0 per match over 11 appearances, five goals and four assists) have been Celtic’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Celtic (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Yang Hyun-Jun averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 634 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances. B. Nygren averages 2.6 key passes per 90 over 1094 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · UEFA Europa League
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Recent form: Benfica 4W 0D 1L · Celtic 2W 0D 3L
As of 13 October 2026, TACTIX’s model — calibration published live, losing picks included — covers Benfica v Celtic across 246 markets; the key numbers are on this page. See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Benfica for / against | Line | Celtic for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 2.5 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.25our book | 1.38 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 6.88 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 9.13 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 15 for · 8.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 16.13 for · 9.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 6 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 7.25 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 11.38 for · 16.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 9.88 for · 9.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.5 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.5 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
Benfica
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Barreiro n 8 | 61.4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | — |
| João Palhinha n 8 | 69.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | — |
| J. Duran n 8 | 23.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | — |
| C. Echeverri n 8 | 33.5 | 1.7 | 3 | — |
| Clément Lenglet n 8 | 84 | 1.6 | 0.7 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| D. Lukebakio n 8 | 41.4 | 3 | 2.4 |
| G. Prestianni n 8 | 66.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| C. Echeverri n 8 | 33.5 | 2.7 | 2 |
| V. Pavlidis n 8 | 68.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| A. Schjelderup n 8 | 54.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| G. Prestianni n 8 | 66.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| D. Lukebakio n 8 | 41.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| S. El Karouani n 8 | 73.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| C. Echeverri n 8 | 33.5 | 0 | 0.7 |
| A. Bah n 8 | 71.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Banjaqui n 3 | 87 | 3.8 |
| A. Schjelderup n 8 | 54.8 | 3.3 |
| João Palhinha n 8 | 69.8 | 2.6 |
| E. Barrenechea n 8 | 38.3 | 2.6 |
| S. El Karouani n 8 | 73.8 | 2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| A. Trubin n 8 | 86.5 | 3.3 |
| Samuel Soares n 8 | 90.9 | 1.2 |
Celtic
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ralston n 8 | 16 | 3.5 | 1.4 | — |
| Kasper Høgh n 8 | 35.4 | 2.2 | 1 | — |
| C. Duran n 8 | 60.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | — |
| Yang Hyun-Jun n 8 | 66.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | — |
| M. Baur n 8 | 57.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shumaira Mheuka n 8 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 6.3 |
| J. Forrest n 8 | 24.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| C. Osmand n 5 | 20.6 | 4.4 | 3.5 |
| C. Duran n 8 | 60.1 | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| H. Hassan n 8 | 48.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Osmand n 5 | 20.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| C. Duran n 8 | 60.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| B. Nygren n 8 | 55.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Jota n 8 | 49.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Yang Hyun-Jun n 8 | 66.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. Baur n 8 | 57.5 | 3.3 |
| Yang Hyun-Jun n 8 | 66.9 | 3 |
| Colby Donovan n 8 | 86.4 | 2.9 |
| A. Ralston n 8 | 16 | 2.8 |
| C. McGregor n 8 | 93.8 | 2.2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| S. Johnstone n 8 | 90 | 2.9 |
| V. Sinisalo n 8 | 93.8 | 2.6 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Benfica v Celtic — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Benfica vs Celtic?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Benfica v Celtic is Home win (best price 1.29 at Betano).
- What is the recent form of Benfica and Celtic?
- Recent form — Benfica 4W 0D 1L; Celtic 2W 0D 3L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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