Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen prediction
Team pages: Lech Poznan · Bayer Leverkusen
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen, UEFA Europa League on Thu, 15 Oct 2026 17:45 BST.
The match
Lech Poznan host Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
12 of Lech Poznan’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (80%).
Bayer Leverkusen have scored in 11 consecutive matches. Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last five matches.
Form and the table
Both teams scored in seven of Lech Poznan’s last 15 results (47%). At home, Lech Poznan have six wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 8 home matches — 2.38 points per game, scoring 2.38 and conceding 0.63.
10 of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in nine of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 15 results (60%). Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have four wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 7 away matches — 1.86 points per game, scoring 2.29 and conceding 1.71.
Lech Poznan (35th) and Bayer Leverkusen (eighth) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Bayer Leverkusen the stronger side, 490 rating points above Lech Poznan (Bayer Leverkusen 2003, Lech Poznan 1513, after at least 29 rated matches each).
Team news
Lech Poznan have five names on the availability list: A. Douglas (out, Ankle Injury), A. Gholizadeh (out, Knee Injury), A. Sayyadmanesh (out, Inactive), J. Moutinho (out, Inactive) and R. Murawski (out, Red Card) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-13. By TACTIX Impact, Pablo Rodríguez (5.5 per match over 12 appearances, four goals and three assists) and P. Wålemark (4.6 per match over 12 appearances, six goals and three assists) have been Lech Poznan’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Lech Poznan (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Pablo Rodríguez averages 2.5 key passes per 90 over 940 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. P. Wålemark averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 910 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.
Bayer Leverkusen have seven names on the availability list: C. Kofane (out, Muscle Injury), G. Doue (out, Calf Injury), J. Hofmann (out, Off the roster), K. Eichhorn (out, Illness), M. Culbreath (out, Foot Injury), T. Oermann (out, Off the roster) and one more — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-13. By TACTIX Impact, Patrik Schick (5.3 per match over seven appearances, six goals and one assist) and Ibrahim Maza (4.6 per match over six appearances, one goal and two assists) have been Bayer Leverkusen’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bayer Leverkusen (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Patrik Schick averages 3.0 shots per 90 over 662 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. Ibrahim Maza averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 983 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · UEFA Europa League · Enea Stadion
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Recent form: Lech Poznan 3W 0D 2L · Bayer Leverkusen 4W 1D 0L
Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen (UEFA Europa League): TACTIX’s calibrated model has priced this fixture across 246 markets — the full record, losers included, is published live (as of 13 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Lech Poznan for / against | Line | Bayer Leverkusen for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 2.25 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.25our book | 2.63 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 6 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 7.13 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 17.38 for · 11.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 21 for · 11.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5.63 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 7.13 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 11.38 for · 13.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 12.25 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.25 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.13 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5 |
Lech Poznan
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Gumny n 8 | 33.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | — |
| R. Murawski n 8 | 82.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | — |
| Allahyar Sayyad n 8 | 63.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | — |
| L. Bengtsson n 8 | 33.4 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Pablo Rodríguez n 8 | 77 | 1.3 | 3.1 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Agnero n 8 | 37.8 | 3.3 | 0.6 |
| M. Ishak n 8 | 54.6 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| L. Palma n 8 | 54.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| P. Wålemark n 8 | 60.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Allahyar Sayyad n 8 | 63.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P. Wålemark n 8 | 60.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Allahyar Sayyad n 8 | 63.4 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Pablo Rodríguez n 8 | 77 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| M. Ishak n 8 | 54.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| L. Palma n 8 | 54.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| R. Murawski n 8 | 82.8 | 2.6 |
| Joel Pereira n 8 | 86.4 | 1.8 |
| Allahyar Sayyad n 8 | 63.4 | 1.8 |
| Pablo Rodríguez n 8 | 77 | 1.6 |
| A. Kozubal n 8 | 76.5 | 1.3 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. Lis n 8 | 90 | 2.5 |
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kofane n 8 | 31.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | — |
| M. Tillman n 8 | 53 | 3 | 1.1 | — |
| Lucas Vázquez n 8 | 32.1 | 1.8 | 3.9 | — |
| L. Badé n 8 | 65 | 1.6 | 0.2 | — |
| F. Medina n 8 | 67.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kofane n 8 | 31.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| P. Schick n 8 | 63.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| N. Tella n 8 | 62.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| I. Maza n 8 | 85.5 | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| Afonso Moreira n 8 | 78 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kofane n 8 | 31.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| P. Schick n 8 | 63.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| N. Tella n 8 | 62.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| M. Tillman n 8 | 53 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Álex Grimaldo n 8 | 82 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| E. Fernández n 8 | 47.1 | 3.3 |
| E. Palacios n 8 | 52.3 | 3 |
| Álex Grimaldo n 8 | 82 | 2.3 |
| M. Culbreath n 8 | 59.8 | 2.3 |
| E. Ben Seghir n 8 | 14.5 | 2.3 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| J. Blaswich n 8 | 90 | 4.5 |
| M. Flekken n 8 | 81.6 | 2.5 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.53 at Betano).
- What is the recent form of Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen?
- Recent form — Lech Poznan 3W 0D 2L; Bayer Leverkusen 4W 1D 0L.
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