Lech Poznan v Sunderland prediction

UEFA Europa League · · Stadion Poznan

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lech Poznan · Sunderland

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Lech Poznan v Sunderland, UEFA Europa League on Thu, 22 Oct 2026 17:45 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.76 at Betvictor
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 643 landed (95% range 61.9–69.2%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Lech Poznan host Sunderland in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

13 of Lech Poznan’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (87%).

Form and the table

Both teams scored in seven of Lech Poznan’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Lech Poznan have six wins, no draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.25 points per game, scoring 2.38 and conceding 1.13.

Seven of Sunderland’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Sunderland’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Sunderland have two wins, two draws and three defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.14 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 2.14.

Lech Poznan (36th) and Sunderland (ninth) are six points apart, 2026/27 so far.

Team news

Predicted Lech Poznan XI (4-2-3-1): M. Lis, M. Gurgul, T. Yegbe, J. Pereira, W. Mońka, P. Wålemark, P. Rodríguez, A. Kozubal, R. Murawski, L. Bengtsson, L. Palma — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Pablo Rodríguez (5.2 per match over 13 appearances, four goals and three assists) and P. Wålemark (4.5 per match over 13 appearances, six goals and three assists) have been Lech Poznan’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Lech Poznan (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Pablo Rodríguez averages 2.4 key passes per 90 over 956 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. P. Wålemark averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 970 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Sunderland XI (4-4-2): R. Roefs, O. Alderete, N. Mukiele, Reinildo, L. O'Nien, N. Sadiki, M. Fofana, G. Xhaka, E. Le Fée, T. Tuterov, C. Rigg — derived from the last 2 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Jules Ahoka (4.4 per match over three appearances, one goal) and N. Mukiele (4.2 per match over eight appearances, one assist) have been Sunderland’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Sunderland (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Jules Ahoka averages 0.7 key passes per 90 over 373 minutes, with a key pass in two of the last five appearances. N. Mukiele averages 2.5 tackles per 90 over 649 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last eight appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · UEFA Europa League · Stadion Poznan
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Lech Poznan 2W 0D 3L · Sunderland 2W 0D 3L

Lech Poznan v Sunderland (UEFA Europa League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2 / 1.13
Goals
against 1.88 / 1.38 · 5 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
6.13 / 6.25
Corners
against 4.5 / 5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.63 / 4.63
Shots on target
against 4.88 / 2.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.88 / 2.13
Cards
against 2.13 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLech Poznan for / againstLineSunderland for / against
Goals scored
2 for · 1.88 against n 8
2.75our book
1.13 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
6.13 for · 4.5 against n 8
9.5standard
6.25 for · 5 against n 8
Shots
17 for · 12.63 against n 8
19.5standard
15.25 for · 10.5 against n 8
Shots on target
5.63 for · 4.88 against n 8
8.5standard
4.63 for · 2.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.5 for · 13.13 against n 8
21.5standard
12.5 for · 14.25 against n 8
Cards shown
1.88 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
2.13 for · 1.88 against n 8
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
R. Gumny n 833.6
2.74/2
0.31/0
—
R. Murawski n 882.8
2.67/6
1.86/4
—
Allahyar Sayyad n 863.4
2.38/2
1.66/3
—
L. Bengtsson n 837.9
1.85/1
00/0
—
M. Ishak n 851.1
1.35/1
1.35/1
—
Lech Poznan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Ishak n 851.1
3.77/6
1.85/3
Y. Agnero n 833.9
3.35/2
0.72/0
L. Palma n 855.8
3.26/6
1.44/2
P. Wålemark n 857.3
2.66/4
2.26/4
Pablo Rodríguez n 873.4
2.37/3
0.83/2
Lech Poznan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
P. Wålemark n 857.3
0.82/2
0.42/0
Allahyar Sayyad n 863.4
0.95/0
00/0
Pablo Rodríguez n 873.4
0.63/1
0.21/0
M. Ishak n 851.1
0.21/0
0.42/0
D. Håkans n 834.8
00/0
0.62/0
Lech Poznan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
R. Murawski n 882.8
2.67/4
Joel Pereira n 886.4
2.16/4
Pablo Rodríguez n 873.4
1.86/4
Allahyar Sayyad n 863.4
1.87/3
Gustav Berggren n 848.3
1.43/1
Lech Poznan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Lis n 890
36/3
Sunderland
Sunderland — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
W. Isidor n 844.1
2.36/3
1.83/3
—
N. Mukiele n 882.6
1.96/4
0.85/1
—
Dan Ballard n 875.1
1.96/4
1.67/4
—
B. Brobbey n 866.3
1.97/3
26/3
—
Jules Ahoka n 676.3
1.84/2
1.44/2
—
Sunderland — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. T. Bi n 346
2.62/1
0.71/0
W. Isidor n 844.1
2.34/3
0.52/0
E. Le Fée n 880.3
2.15/4
0.74/1
Jules Ahoka n 676.3
1.84/3
0.41/1
M. Fofana n 841
1.64/1
1.12/1
Sunderland — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Methalie n 859.3
0.42/0
0.21/0
C. Talbi n 841.6
0.31/0
0.31/0
B. Brobbey n 866.3
0.51/1
00/0
E. Le Fée n 880.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
Jules Ahoka n 676.3
0.21/0
0.21/0
Sunderland — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Hume n 873.4
3.27/5
Jules Ahoka n 676.3
2.85/4
N. Mukiele n 882.6
2.67/6
J. T. Bi n 346
2.63/1
C. Rigg n 833.4
2.43/2
Sunderland — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Ellborg n 890
3.46/5
R. Roefs n 890
1.33/1

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Lech Poznan v Sunderland — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Lech PoznanLLWWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 2 scored / 2.4 conceded per game
SunderlandLWLLW
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.2 scored / 2 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
Lech Poznan#36 pos0 pts2 pl-8 GD
Sunderland#9 pos6 pts2 pl+2 GD
Goals per game
Lech Poznan scored0
Sunderland scored1.5
Lech Poznan conceded4
Sunderland conceded0.5

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Lech Poznan v Sunderland?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Lech Poznan v Sunderland is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.76 at Betvictor).
What is the recent form of Lech Poznan and Sunderland?
Recent form — Lech Poznan 2W 0D 3L; Sunderland 2W 0D 3L.

Today’s boards

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