Columbus Crew v St. Louis City prediction

US Open Cup · · ScottsMiracle-Gro Field

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Columbus Crew · St. Louis City

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Columbus Crew v St. Louis City, US Open Cup on Thu, 22 Oct 2026 01:00 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.7% of 641 landed (95% range 61.9–69.3%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Columbus Crew host St. Louis City in the US Open Cup on Thursday 22 October (kick-off 01:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Columbus Crew have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

10 of Columbus Crew’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 10 of Columbus Crew’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Columbus Crew have four wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.63 points per game, scoring 1.63 and conceding 1.25.

11 of St. Louis City’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 11 of St. Louis City’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). Away from home, St. Louis City have four wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 2.43 and conceding 1.14.

TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have St. Louis City the stronger side, 56 rating points above Columbus Crew (St. Louis City 2027, Columbus Crew 1971, after at least eight rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 13 April 2025, finished St. Louis City 1–2 Columbus Crew.

Team news

By TACTIX Impact, Santiago Rodríguez (5.5 per match over eight appearances, two goals and two assists) and Maximilian Arfsten (5.3 per match over 17 appearances, four goals and four assists) have been Columbus Crew’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Columbus Crew (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Santiago Rodríguez averages 2.2 key passes per 90 over 1496 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Maximilian Arfsten averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 2117 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

By TACTIX Impact, Rafael Navarro (8.0 per match over eight appearances, eight goals and three assists) and M. Hartel (5.0 per match over 16 appearances, six goals and three assists) have been St. Louis City’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for St. Louis City (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Rafael Navarro averages 2.4 shots per 90 over 2607 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. M. Hartel averages 2.5 shots per 90 over 2051 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · US Open Cup · ScottsMiracle-Gro Field
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 2): Columbus Crew 2 · draws 0 · St. Louis City 0 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: Columbus Crew 4W 0D 1L · St. Louis City 3W 1D 1L

Columbus Crew v St. Louis City (US Open Cup): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 2.88
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6.43 / 4.86
Corners
against 2.86 / 5.86 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
6.86 / 6.29
Shots on target
against 4.57 / 4.43 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.29 / 1.86
Cards
against 2.86 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
19
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameColumbus Crew for / againstLineSt. Louis City for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5standard
2.88 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
6.43 for · 2.86 against n 7
9.5standard
4.86 for · 5.86 against n 7
Shots
16.86 for · 12.86 against n 7
19.5standard
12.86 for · 15.57 against n 7
Shots on target
6.86 for · 4.57 against n 7
8.5standard
6.29 for · 4.43 against n 7
Fouls committed
12.29 for · 13.14 against n 7
21.5standard
16 for · 12 against n 7
Cards shown
2.29 for · 2.86 against n 7
3.5standard
1.86 for · 2 against n 7
Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
G. Tapia n 846
2.96/4
2.25/3
—
J. Thiare n 831.5
2.54/2
2.15/1
—
Taha Habroune n 862.8
2.36/4
1.34/2
—
T. Karumanchi n 866.5
2.26/5
1.74/4
—
Sekou Tidiany Bangoura n 845.4
25/3
26/2
—
Columbus Crew — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Zaroury n 868
47/5
1.73/3
Brais Méndez n 879.8
3.26/5
2.36/3
G. Tapia n 846
2.96/3
26/2
J. Thiare n 831.5
2.95/2
0.72/0
Josef Martínez n 864.5
2.65/4
0.94/1
Columbus Crew — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Taha Habroune n 862.8
0.74/0
0.21/0
Brais Méndez n 879.8
0.43/0
0.32/0
G. Tapia n 846
0.21/0
0.52/0
J. Thiare n 831.5
0.72/0
00/0
Mohamed Farsi n 885.1
0.32/0
0.32/0
Columbus Crew — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Taha Habroune n 862.8
2.97/5
Sean Zawadzki n 891
2.56/4
Sekou Tidiany Bangoura n 845.4
2.54/3
Santiago Rodríguez n 880.4
2.48/5
Dylan Chambost n 845
2.35/3
Columbus Crew — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Patrick Schulte n 891
3.27/4
St. Louis City
St. Louis City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Perez n 835
3.24/2
0.31/0
—
T. Ostrák n 817.1
2.64/0
00/0
—
M. Joyner n 835.8
2.53/2
2.53/2
—
L. MacNaughton n 835.5
2.53/3
0.62/0
—
Jaziel Orozco n 864.4
2.46/3
0.74/0
—
St. Louis City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Downs n 811.8
3.84/0
1.92/0
C. Holse n 861.4
3.37/6
26/4
S. Becher n 843
3.16/3
2.46/2
T. Ostrák n 817.1
2.63/1
22/1
Rafael Navarro n 877
2.37/5
1.87/5
St. Louis City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Rafael Navarro n 877
1.25/3
0.42/1
C. Holse n 861.4
1.14/1
0.21/0
T. Ostrák n 817.1
1.32/0
00/0
S. Becher n 843
0.83/0
00/0
C. Wallem n 881
0.11/0
0.64/0
St. Louis City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Ostrák n 817.1
3.93/2
Jaziel Orozco n 864.4
3.17/4
M. Joyner n 835.8
2.84/3
M. Perez n 835
2.65/1
D. Polvara n 871.5
2.56/4
St. Louis City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
R. Burki n 890
2.64/3

The day’s free picks, by email

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Columbus Crew v St. Louis City — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Columbus CrewWWLWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1 conceded per game
St. Louis CityWWWDL
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 2
Columbus Crew 2 · 0 draws · St. Louis City 0 · 3 goals/game
  • 2025-04-13 St. Louis City 1–2 Columbus Crew
  • 2023-07-23 Columbus Crew 2–1 St. Louis City
Goals per game
Columbus Crew scored2.2
St. Louis City scored2.8
Columbus Crew conceded1
St. Louis City conceded1.2

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Columbus Crew v St. Louis City?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Columbus Crew v St. Louis City is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Columbus Crew and St. Louis City?
In their last 2 meetings, Columbus Crew won 2, St. Louis City won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Columbus Crew and St. Louis City?
Recent form — Columbus Crew 4W 0D 1L; St. Louis City 3W 1D 1L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
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