K League 1 xG Table 2026

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-10-31 · 38 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: apisports_proxy

As of 31 October 2026, Gangwon FC have 5.0 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in K League 1 on expected points. FC Seoul are the luckiest (2.8 more). FC Seoul lead the K League 1 on 16 points; they also top the expected-points column on 13.2 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	FC Seoul	8	16	13.2	+2.8
2	Jeonbuk Motors	7	12	11.5	+0.5
3	Incheon United	7	11	10.1	+0.9
4	Jeju United FC	7	11	8.2	+2.8
5	Ulsan Hyundai FC	6	10	9.5	+0.5
6	Pohang Steelers	7	9	10.8	-1.8
7	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	6	7	7.4	-0.4
8	Daejeon Citizen	6	7	7.2	-0.2
9	Gangwon FC	6	6	11.0	-5.0
10	FC Anyang	5	6	5.2	+0.8
11	Bucheon FC 1995	6	5	6.6	-1.6
12	Gwangju FC	5	1	4.4	-3.4

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to Read This Table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

K League 1 predictions K League 1 top scorers Model scoreboard What is xPts?What is xG?

Questions This Page Answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished K League 1 match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).