As of 1 November 2026, the Premier League title odds simulation (issue #7) has Arsenal on 62.9% to win the title, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Issue #7 · week 2026-W45 · simulations updated 1 November 2026 · 10,000 season simulations per league
The TACTIX Simulation Report is the weekly, numbered record of what our season simulations say — and how they moved. Every number below is the same number the live Supercomputer hub shows; the deltas compare this run with the previous one.
Premier League Title Odds Simulation #7: Three Lines You Can Quote
- Arsenal won the Premier League title in 62.9% of 10,000 simulations of the 2026/27 season. (TACTIX Simulation Report #7)
- The gap at the top: Arsenal 62.9% vs Manchester City 30.4% — a 32.5-point difference in title likelihood. (TACTIX Simulation Report #7)
- 3 of 20 Premier League clubs took the title in at least 1% of simulations. (TACTIX Simulation Report #7)
Who Is Favourite to Win the Premier League 2026/27?
Arsenal are favourites: they won the title in 62.9% of 10,000 simulated seasons, as of 1 November 2026, ahead of Manchester City on 30.4%. The table below gives every club’s title, Top 4 and relegation chances and the change since the last run.
Premier League 2026/27 — The Full Movement Table
| # | Club | Title | Δ | Top 4 | Relegation | Avg pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 62.9% | +9.3pp | 99.7% | 0% | 81.9 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 30.4% | −8.9pp | 98.3% | 0% | 77.5 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6.1% | −0.2pp | 86.6% | 0% | 69.9 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 0.4% | −0.2pp | 37.2% | <0.1% | 60.7 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 0.1% | · | 22.4% | 0.3% | 57.9 |
| 6 | Brentford | 0.2% | +0.1pp | 21.1% | 0.2% | 57.3 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | <0.1% | −0.1pp | 10.8% | 0.9% | 54.7 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | <0.1% | · | 7.0% | 1.9% | 52.5 |
| 9 | Manchester United | <0.1% | · | 5.1% | 2.3% | 51.3 |
| 10 | Leeds | 0% | · | 3.6% | 3.0% | 50.5 |
| 11 | Everton | 0% | · | 3.2% | 3.9% | 49.8 |
| 12 | Newcastle | <0.1% | · | 2.4% | 5.0% | 49.3 |
| 13 | Fulham | 0% | · | 1.1% | 7.8% | 46.8 |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 0% | · | 0.9% | 9.7% | 46.2 |
| 15 | Hull City | 0% | · | 0.4% | 14.9% | 44.5 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 0% | · | 0.2% | 21.4% | 42.8 |
| 17 | Ipswich | 0% | · | 0.1% | 35.1% | 40.3 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 0% | · | <0.1% | 60.2% | 36.3 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 0% | · | <0.1% | 63.9% | 35.9 |
| 20 | Coventry | 0% | · | <0.1% | 69.6% | 34.9 |
Club by Club
One line per club, for the beat writer who covers exactly one of them:
- Arsenal (1/20 by simulation) — title 62.9% (+9.3pp on the last run), top four 99.7%, averaging 81.9 pts.
- Manchester City (2/20 by simulation) — title 30.4% (−8.9pp on the last run), top four 98.3%, averaging 77.5 pts.
- Brighton (3/20 by simulation) — title 6.1% (−0.2pp on the last run), top four 86.6%, averaging 69.9 pts.
- Liverpool (4/20 by simulation) — top four 37.2% (title −0.2pp), relegation <0.1%, averaging 60.7 pts.
- Chelsea (5/20 by simulation) — top four 22.4%, relegation 0.3%, averaging 57.9 pts.
- Brentford (6/20 by simulation) — top four 21.1% (title +0.1pp), relegation 0.2%, averaging 57.3 pts.
- Aston Villa (7/20 by simulation) — top four 10.8% (title −0.1pp), relegation 0.9%, averaging 54.7 pts.
- Bournemouth (8/20 by simulation) — top four 7.0%, relegation 1.9%, averaging 52.5 pts.
- Manchester United (9/20 by simulation) — top four 5.1%, relegation 2.3%, averaging 51.3 pts.
- Leeds (10/20 by simulation) — top four 3.6%, relegation 3.0%, averaging 50.5 pts.
- Everton (11/20 by simulation) — top four 3.2%, relegation 3.9%, averaging 49.8 pts.
- Newcastle (12/20 by simulation) — top four 2.4%, relegation 5.0%, averaging 49.3 pts.
- Fulham (13/20 by simulation) — relegation 7.8% (+0.3pp), top-half push 1.1%, averaging 46.8 pts.
- Nottingham Forest (14/20 by simulation) — relegation 9.7% (+2.2pp), top-half push 0.9%, averaging 46.2 pts.
- Hull City (15/20 by simulation) — relegation 14.9% (+1.5pp), top-half push 0.4%, averaging 44.5 pts.
- Tottenham (16/20 by simulation) — relegation 21.4% (−11.6pp), top-half push 0.2%, averaging 42.8 pts.
- Ipswich (17/20 by simulation) — relegation 35.1% (−0.8pp), top-half push 0.1%, averaging 40.3 pts.
- Sunderland (18/20 by simulation) — relegation 60.2% (+5.4pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 36.3 pts.
- Crystal Palace (19/20 by simulation) — relegation 63.9% (+14.9pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 35.9 pts.
- Coventry (20/20 by simulation) — relegation 69.6% (−14.3pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 34.9 pts.
Movers Elsewhere
- Bundesliga (Austria): Rapid Vienna — title 50.9% (+3.2pp).
- Challenger Pro League: Dender — title 36.0% (−10.4pp).
- Jupiler Pro League: Charleroi — top spots 62.4% (+6.5pp).
- Série A: Bahia — top spots 40.6% (−0.7pp).
- Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen — top spots 46.2% (−4.2pp).
- Championship: West Ham — top spots 52.0% (−15.6pp).
- Super League (China): Shandong Luneng — top spots 60.0% (+19.3pp).
- Superliga (Denmark): Aarhus — top spots 27.3% (−9.6pp).
- League One: Huddersfield — top spots 60.0% (+5.4pp).
- League Two: York — top spots 15.5% (−9.1pp).
- National League: Boreham Wood — title 95.9% (+0.3pp).
- Ligue 2: Saint Etienne — title 50.2% (−17.0pp).
- 2. Bundesliga: 1. FC Nürnberg — top spots 47.3% (+6.1pp).
- Super League 1 (Greece): OFI — top spots 66.1% (+16.3pp).
- Serie B: Benevento — top spots 6.1% (−3.6pp).
- La Liga: Real Betis — top spots 63.0% (+4.9pp).
- Ligue 1: Monaco — top spots 12.2% (−4.7pp).
- Eredivisie: Feyenoord — top spots 40.7% (−5.2pp).
- Eliteserien: Viking — title 51.8% (−3.7pp).
- Ekstraklasa: Lech Poznan — title 84.1% (+1.3pp).
- Primeira Liga: FC Porto — title 73.0% (+9.2pp).
- Saudi Pro League: Al-Hilal Saudi FC — title 70.5% (+4.3pp).
- Serie A: Inter — title 56.6% (−13.1pp).
- Segunda División: Girona — top spots 22.2% (−3.0pp).
- Allsvenskan: Hammarby FF — title 38.8% (+15.7pp).
- Süper Lig: Trabzonspor — top spots 40.3% (+5.1pp).
- Premier League (Ukraine): Polessya — title 20.1% (−0.4pp).
- Cymru Premier: Cardiff MET — top spots 7.5% (−3.2pp).
Model vs the Market, This Week
The model’s settled hit rate against the bookmaker favourite, from the live accuracy leaderboard (last-12-months window, all leagues, losers included):
| Market | Settled picks | Model | Bookmaker favourite | Model − favourite | Δ model since last issue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 11,031 | 74.3% | 79.0% | -4.7 pp | · |
| Both teams to score | 10,986 | 54.4% | 56.7% | -2.3 pp | · |
| Total goals (over / under) | 10,978 | 94.8% | 95.1% | -0.3 pp | · |
Hit rate answers “who picks winners more often” — it is not a profitability claim; probabilities are odds to weigh, not promises. Definitions and every league’s cells: the leaderboard.
Method, in One Paragraph
Each covered league is simulated thousands of times from the current table and remaining fixtures, using the same calibrated match model that prices every prediction on the site. Probabilities are model estimates — odds to weigh, not promises. The live, always-current version of every table on this page is at tactix.football/supercomputer; embeddable versions are free at /widgets with the credit intact. Cite this issue as “TACTIX Simulation Report #7”.
How to Read This Issue
Each percentage is the share of simulated seasons in which a club finished in that position, so a club on ten per cent for the title won it in about one season in ten. The movement column compares this run with the previous one, and a small move can be noise rather than news, because every run draws a fresh set of seasons from the same model. Averages sit beside the percentages so a reader can see the typical finish as well as the tails. The simulations take the current table and the fixtures still to be played, they do not know about injuries announced after the run, and each issue is stamped with the date of the run it uses.
More from TACTIX: the accuracy page shows how the model has scored, and the Simulation Report page holds the latest issue and the archive.
TACTIX Simulation Report #7 — FAQs
How many simulations does the report use?
10,000 simulated seasons per league, re-run from the current table and the remaining fixtures; this issue uses the run of 1 November 2026.
Who is most likely to be relegated?
Coventry: relegated in 69.6% of the 10,000 simulated seasons as of 1 November 2026. The table above has every club’s figure.
Where is the live, always-current version?
On the TACTIX Supercomputer, which shows the same numbers as this issue and updates after every run.
Sources and data: the live scoreboard · the Supercomputer · the open data catalogue. Cite as “TACTIX (tactix.football)”.
18+. TACTIX simulations are model estimates — not betting advice or guarantees. Please gamble responsibly — support at BeGambleAware.org.
This post is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically. How it works →
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