Bayern München v RB Leipzig prediction

Bundesliga · · Allianz Arena

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bayern München · RB Leipzig · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Bayern München v RB Leipzig, Bundesliga on Sat, 17 Oct 2026 17:30 BST.

Free pick
Home win
Best price: 1.22 at William Hill
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 77.7% of 188 landed (95% range 71.2–83%); it had given them 75.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Bayern München host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October (kick-off 17:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Bayern München to win, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 13 matches. Bayern München have scored 16 goals, the most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Bayern München are unbeaten in the last six meetings with RB Leipzig, every meeting checked.

Form and the table

12 of Bayern München’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (80%). Both teams scored in 10 of Bayern München’s last 15 results (67%). At home, Bayern München have five wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 7 home matches — 2.43 points per game, scoring 4.14 and conceding 0.86. Bayern München have conceded four goals, the fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

13 of RB Leipzig’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (87%). Both teams scored in eight of RB Leipzig’s last 15 results (53%). Away from home, RB Leipzig have three wins, no draws and five defeats in their last 8 away matches — 1.13 points per game, scoring 1.88 and conceding 2.38. RB Leipzig have scored 15 goals, the second-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). RB Leipzig have conceded five goals, the fourth-fewest of the 18 clubs.

Bayern München (third) and RB Leipzig (fifth) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Bayern München the stronger side, 320 rating points above RB Leipzig (Bayern München 1993, RB Leipzig 1673, after at least 311 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 11 February 2026, finished Bayern München 2–0 RB Leipzig.

Team news

Predicted Bayern München XI (4-2-3-1): M. Neuer, D. Upamecano, A. Davies, J. Tah, J. Stanišić, A. Pavlović, M. Olise, J. Kimmich, L. Díaz, I. Saibari, H. Kane — derived from the last 5 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Michael Olise (11.3 per match over eight appearances, eight goals and three assists) and Harry Kane (6.8 per match over eight appearances, six goals and four assists) have been Bayern München’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bayern München (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Michael Olise averages 3.3 key passes per 90 over 1657 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Harry Kane averages 3.4 shots per 90 over 1712 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted RB Leipzig XI (4-3-3): M. Vandevoordt, W. Orbán, D. Raum, R. Baku, C. Lukeba, E. Banzuzi, N. El Aynaoui, N. Seiwald, T. Gomis, A. Nusa, Rômulo — derived from the last 5 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Antonio Nusa (7.5 per match over seven appearances, four goals and three assists) and Christopher Nkunku (5.1 per match over six appearances, four goals and two assists) have been RB Leipzig’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for RB Leipzig (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Antonio Nusa averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 1369 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Christopher Nkunku averages 2.9 shots per 90 over 373 minutes, with a shot in three of the last six appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Bundesliga · Allianz Arena
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Bayern München 5 · draws 1 · RB Leipzig 0 · 4.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Bayern München 3W 2D 0L · RB Leipzig 2W 0D 3L

Bayern München v RB Leipzig (Bundesliga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 12 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

3.38 / 2.88
Goals
against 0.75 / 1.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 4.75
over 8 matches
8.38 / 6
Corners
against 2.75 / 4.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
9 / 7
Shots on target
against 2.13 / 5.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
0.63 / 1.38
Cards
against 1.88 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBayern München for / againstLineRB Leipzig for / against
Goals scored
3.38 for · 0.75 against n 8
4.75our book
2.88 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
8.38 for · 2.75 against n 8
9.5standard
6 for · 4.25 against n 8
Shots
22.63 for · 6 against n 8
19.5standard
18.88 for · 13.13 against n 8
Shots on target
9 for · 2.13 against n 8
8.5standard
7 for · 5.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
8.63 for · 9.75 against n 8
21.5standard
9.88 for · 11.75 against n 8
Cards shown
0.63 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
1.38 for · 1.38 against n 8
Bayern München
Bayern München — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
K. Laimer n 869.3
1.95/5
0.63/1
—
H. Ito n 869.3
1.84/3
00/0
—
A. Pavlović n 874
1.75/3
0.95/1
—
T. Bischof n 845.1
1.75/2
0.21/0
—
J. Musiala n 860.5
1.57/1
2.85/5
—
Bayern München — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Olise n 871.4
4.68/7
3.28/5
H. Kane n 881.6
4.38/8
1.98/5
I. Saibari n 844.3
3.86/3
1.53/2
S. Gnabry n 837.6
3.66/4
1.85/1
L. Karl n 838.9
2.65/3
1.23/1
Bayern München — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
H. Kane n 881.6
1.47/3
0.74/1
M. Olise n 871.4
1.45/3
0.64/0
T. Bischof n 845.1
0.52/0
0.51/1
I. Saibari n 844.3
0.52/0
0.51/1
L. Karl n 838.9
0.31/0
0.62/0
Bayern München — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Bischof n 845.1
35/4
K. Laimer n 869.3
2.87/5
L. Karl n 838.9
2.34/3
Bara Ndiaye n 738.4
2.34/1
D. Upamecano n 883.8
2.17/6
Bayern München — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Urbig n 882.5
24/2
M. Neuer n 892.6
1.75/2
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
C. Baumgartner n 888
2.27/5
1.26/2
—
C. Harder n 834.1
24/2
0.72/0
—
E. Banzuzi n 869.6
1.87/3
1.35/3
—
J. Bakayoko n 826.1
1.72/1
00/0
—
B. Henrichs n 828.1
1.63/1
1.23/0
—
RB Leipzig — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
T. Gomis n 845.8
3.47/5
1.24/1
C. Harder n 834.1
35/4
1.65/0
J. Bakayoko n 826.1
34/2
1.33/0
C. Nkunku n 863.8
2.55/3
1.65/3
E. Banzuzi n 869.6
2.35/4
0.84/1
RB Leipzig — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
C. Nkunku n 863.8
0.93/1
0.42/0
T. Gomis n 845.8
0.52/0
0.72/1
C. Harder n 834.1
0.72/0
0.31/0
A. Nusa n 872.6
0.32/0
0.63/1
E. Banzuzi n 869.6
0.32/0
0.53/0
RB Leipzig — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Seiwald n 861.3
3.38/4
R. Reitz n 871.9
2.86/5
E. Banzuzi n 869.6
2.67/6
Max Finkgräfe n 853.5
2.55/3
C. Baumgartner n 888
28/4
RB Leipzig — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Maarten Vandevoordt n 890
4.38/6

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Bayern München v RB Leipzig — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Bayern MünchenDWWWD
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 3.2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
RB LeipzigLLWLW
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 2.6 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Bayern München 5 · 1 draw · RB Leipzig 0 · 4.83 goals/game
  • 2026-02-11 Bayern München 2–0 RB Leipzig
  • 2026-01-17 RB Leipzig 1–5 Bayern München
  • 2025-08-22 Bayern München 6–0 RB Leipzig
  • 2025-05-03 RB Leipzig 3–3 Bayern München
  • 2024-12-20 Bayern München 5–1 RB Leipzig
  • 2024-02-24 Bayern Munich 2–1 RB Leipzig
League standing · 2026/27
Bayern München#3 pos11 pts5 pl+12 GD
RB Leipzig#5 pos9 pts5 pl+10 GD
Goals per game
Bayern München scored3.2
RB Leipzig scored3
Bayern München conceded0.8
RB Leipzig conceded1

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Bayern München v RB Leipzig?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Bayern München v RB Leipzig is Home win (best price 1.22 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and RB Leipzig?
In their last 6 meetings, Bayern München won 5, RB Leipzig won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 4.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bayern München and RB Leipzig?
Recent form — Bayern München 3W 2D 0L; RB Leipzig 2W 0D 3L.

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