Sturm Graz v Ried prediction

Bundesliga – Austria · · Merkur-Arena

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Sturm Graz · Ried · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Sturm Graz v Ried, Bundesliga – Austria on Sun, 25 Oct 2026 13:30 GMT.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 77.9% of 199 landed (95% range 71.6–83.1%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Sturm Graz host Ried in the Bundesliga – Austria on Sunday 25 October (kick-off 13:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Sturm Graz to win.

The key numbers

Ried have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions. Sturm Graz are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Ried, every meeting checked. Ried are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Six of Sturm Graz’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in five of Sturm Graz’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). At home, Sturm Graz have four wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 0.57. Sturm Graz have scored 16 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 12 clubs (2026/27 so far). Sturm Graz have conceded 10 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 12 clubs.

Nine of Ried’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in 10 of Ried’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Ried have one win, one draw and four defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 0.67 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 2.33. Ried have scored 16 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 12 clubs (2026/27 so far). Ried have conceded 15 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 12 clubs.

Sturm Graz (fourth) and Ried (fifth) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Sturm Graz the stronger side, 167 rating points above Ried (Sturm Graz 1785, Ried 1617, after at least 140 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 8 February 2026, finished Sturm Graz 1–0 Ried.

Team news

Predicted Sturm Graz XI (4-4-2): D. Khudyakov, J. Heil, A. Vallci, P. Koller, A. Malic, J. Stankovic, L. Weinhandl, J. Hödl, S. Seidl, S. Jatta, O. Diakité — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Emran Soglo (5.1 per match over nine appearances, one goal and one assist) and Oumar Diakité (4.9 per match over six appearances, six goals) have been Sturm Graz’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Sturm Graz (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Emran Soglo averages 3.8 tackles per 90 over 638 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last nine appearances. Oumar Diakité averages 3.3 shots per 90 over 332 minutes, with a shot in four of the last nine appearances.

Predicted Ried XI (4-2-3-1): A. Leitner, O. Steurer, S. Chukwudi, L. Malicsek, D. Radonjic, Y. Maart, S. Schwab, M. Rasner, A. Bajić, Y. Nasrawe, E. E. Aisowieren — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, P. Pomer (5.6 per match over five appearances, three goals and one assist) and A. Bajić (4.8 per match over nine appearances, one goal and three assists) have been Ried’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Ried (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), P. Pomer averages 2.0 tackles per 90 over 398 minutes, with a tackle in four of the last five appearances. A. Bajić averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 793 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last nine appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Bundesliga – Austria · Merkur-Arena
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Sturm Graz 4 · draws 2 · Ried 0 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Sturm Graz 2W 1D 2L · Ried 3W 1D 1L

Sturm Graz v Ried (Bundesliga – Austria): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.5 / 1.88
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.75 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
6 / 3.38
Corners
against 5.13 / 6.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.88 / 5.25
Shots on target
against 4.75 / 5.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.88 / 2.5
Cards
against 1.88 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameSturm Graz for / againstLineRied for / against
Goals scored
1.5 for · 1.5 against n 8
3.5our book
1.88 for · 1.75 against n 8
Corners won
6 for · 5.13 against n 8
9.5standard
3.38 for · 6.25 against n 8
Shots
14.25 for · 18.25 against n 8
19.5standard
13.63 for · 17.75 against n 8
Shots on target
4.88 for · 4.75 against n 8
8.5standard
5.25 for · 5.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
13 for · 9 against n 8
21.5standard
10.13 for · 9.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.88 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
2.5 for · 1.88 against n 8
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Rózga n 327.3
2.21/1
4.42/2
—
N. Weiper n 831.6
2.15/1
0.41/0
—
B. Beganović n 838.9
24/2
1.44/1
—
Luca Weinhandl n 877.4
1.96/3
1.98/3
—
Gizo Mamageishvili n 842.1
1.95/1
1.35/0
—
Sturm Graz — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Oumar Diakité n 835.9
3.84/3
2.53/3
Simon Seidl n 866.6
2.56/4
1.24/1
F. Rózga n 327.3
2.22/0
00/0
Axel Kayombo n 837.1
2.14/2
00/0
N. Weiper n 831.6
2.14/2
0.71/1
Sturm Graz — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Oumar Diakité n 835.9
1.93/2
00/0
Simon Seidl n 866.6
00/0
0.83/1
N. Weiper n 831.6
0.71/1
00/0
E. Soglo n 869.9
0.21/0
0.21/0
Seedy Jatta n 860
0.42/0
00/0
Sturm Graz — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
F. Rózga n 327.3
3.32/1
E. Soglo n 869.9
3.28/6
J. Heil n 888.3
2.78/6
A. Malic n 869
2.67/5
Petar Petrović n 751.1
2.34/3
Sturm Graz — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Helac n 786
3.45/5
Daniil Khudyakov n 882.6
3.36/5
Ried
Ried — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Martin Rasner n 845.8
2.56/2
1.24/1
—
J. Mayer n 835.1
2.24/2
1.95/1
—
I. Kiese Thelin n 820.8
2.23/1
0.51/0
—
S. Schwab n 882.4
1.88/5
0.74/1
—
L. Malicsek n 851.3
1.85/3
0.73/0
—
Ried — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Niama Pape Sissoko n 841
3.87/5
1.13/1
I. Kiese Thelin n 820.8
2.23/1
2.23/1
Joris Boguo n 837.5
2.14/2
1.23/1
T. Lund Jensen n 838.3
1.84/2
1.24/0
F. Rossdorfer n 849.4
1.64/2
0.21/0
Ried — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
I. Kiese Thelin n 820.8
2.23/1
0.51/0
S. Schwab n 882.4
0.54/0
0.11/0
P. Pomer n 883.5
0.43/0
0.11/0
Niama Pape Sissoko n 841
0.52/0
00/0
A. Bajić n 887.9
0.11/0
0.32/0
Ried — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Mayer n 835.1
4.26/5
F. Rossdorfer n 849.4
2.34/2
O. Sorg n 758.3
2.26/2
Joris Boguo n 837.5
2.15/2
L. Malicsek n 851.3
25/1
Ried — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Leitner n 890
3.47/5

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Sturm Graz v Ried — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Sturm GrazDLWLW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
RiedLDWWW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Sturm Graz 4 · 2 draws · Ried 0 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2026-02-08 Sturm Graz 1–0 Ried
  • 2025-08-16 Ried 1–3 Sturm Graz
  • 2022-10-30 Sturm Graz 2–1 Ried
  • 2022-08-06 Ried 1–1 Sturm Graz
  • 2022-03-06 Ried 2–2 Sturm Graz
  • 2021-10-17 Sturm Graz 1–0 Ried
League standing · 2026/27
Sturm Graz#4 pos17 pts9 pl+6 GD
Ried#5 pos14 pts9 pl+1 GD
Goals per game
Sturm Graz scored1.78
Ried scored1.78
Sturm Graz conceded1.11
Ried conceded1.67

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Sturm Graz v Ried?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Sturm Graz v Ried is Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Ried?
In their last 6 meetings, Sturm Graz won 4, Ried won 0 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Sturm Graz and Ried?
Recent form — Sturm Graz 2W 1D 2L; Ried 3W 1D 1L.

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