Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 result

Full-time · Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07

Bundesliga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:30 BST · Weserstadion

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 03:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Werder Bremen · SC Paderborn 07 · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07 — this Bundesliga match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick

Home or Draw

Best price: 1.25 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.4% of 1739 landed (95% range 74.3–78.3%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,041 of 1,389 times (74.9%), against an average rating of 70.3%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Werder Bremen: 2.67 to 1.37 in expected goals, 0.76 of it from a penalty, from 18 shots to 11, ahead on xG from the 80th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The points were shared.

The result

Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 drew 2–2 at Weserstadion in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October. Werder Bremen have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

SC Paderborn 07 led 2–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — SC Paderborn 07: Stefano Marino (18’, assisted by Steffen Tigges) and Steffen Tigges (30’); Werder Bremen: Niclas Füllkrug (59’, assisted by Eren Dinkçi; 65’ pen).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Niclas Füllkrug’s goal on 65 minutes.

Discipline

Robert Schröder, Germany showed two yellow cards — against 3.7 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Werder Bremen: Youri Regeer (86’); SC Paderborn 07: Stefano Marino (4’).

What it changes

Werder Bremen move down from fourth to sixth (six league matches played). Werder Bremen have scored 17 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 8 games). Werder Bremen have conceded 14 goals, the eighth-fewest of the 18 clubs.

SC Paderborn 07 stay 15th after this result (six league matches played). SC Paderborn 07 have scored six goals, the second-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 8 games). SC Paderborn 07 have conceded nine goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Werder Bremen are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Niclas Füllkrug (Werder Bremen) 11.6, Steffen Tigges (SC Paderborn 07) 9.4 and Santiago Castañeda (SC Paderborn 07) 6.2 led the match.

Head-to-head

Werder Bremen are unbeaten in the last three meetings with SC Paderborn 07.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Werder Bremen or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 76.4% of the time in the last 90 days (1328 of 1739).

Next up

Werder Bremen next travel to VfB Stuttgart on 7 November 2026.

SC Paderborn 07 next host Eintracht Frankfurt on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Werder Bremen: VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for SC Paderborn 07: SC Paderborn 07 v Eintracht Frankfurt, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga
Venue: Weserstadion · Bremen
Referee: Robert Schröder, Germany
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Werder Bremen 3 · draws 1 · SC Paderborn 07 2 · 4 goals/game
Recent form: Werder Bremen 2W 2D 1L · SC Paderborn 07 1W 1D 3L

Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 1

Goals

against 1.63 / 1.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

4.25 / 4.71

Corners

against 5.75 / 6.29 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

5.38 / 3.57

Shots on target

against 5.25 / 5.71 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.25 / 2

Cards

against 1 / 1.14 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

3.73 yellows

Referee · Robert Schröder, Germany

22.27 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 11 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 10 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Werder Bremen for / against	Line	SC Paderborn 07 for / against
Goals scored	1.63 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	1 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.25 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.71 for · 6.29 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	13.75 for · 14.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	13.86 for · 17.71 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	5.38 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.57 for · 5.71 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	10 for · 8.88 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.71 for · 11.86 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	1.25 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 1.14 against n 7 Last 5

Referee: Robert Schröder, Germany — 3.73 yellow cards a game, 0.18 red cards, 22.27 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen Goalkeeper

Werder Bremen — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
K. Hein	5	90450 min	183.6 /90	102 /90	10.2 /90

Werder Bremen — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Werder Bremen before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
K. Hein n 7	90	4.1 6/5

Werder Bremen Defensive

Werder Bremen — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
M. Friedl	6	90540 min	30.5 /90	111.8 /90	81.3 /90	152.5 /90	101.7 /90	00 /90
O. Deman	6	90540 min	183 /90	111.8 /90	40.7 /90	284.7 /90	50.8 /90	10.2 /90
A. Pieper	6	76458 min	91.8 /90	81.6 /90	40.8 /90	193.7 /90	10.2 /90	00 /90
Arthur	4	76302 min	61.8 /90	61.8 /90	00 /90	195.7 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90
Mick Schmetgens	3	68203 min	52.2 /90	20.9 /90	00 /90	125.3 /90	31.3 /90	00 /90
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Werder Bremen — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Werder Bremen before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Friedl n 8	84.4	1.5 6/4	0.4 3/0	T. Scheller
O. Deman n 8	90	0.8 5/1	0.6 4/1	J. ter Horst
L. Reis n 6	83.8	1.4 4/2	0.9 2/2	S. Castañeda
Chuky San José n 6	79.8	0.9 3/2	0.6 2/1	L. Ulrich
M. Grüll n 8	64.8	1.2 5/2	2.3 5/4	L. Curda
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Werder Bremen — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Werder Bremen before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
O. Deman n 8	90	3.2 8/5
M. Friedl n 8	84.4	0.7 5/0
L. Reis n 6	83.8	2.9 5/4
Chuky San José n 6	79.8	1.3 4/2
M. Grüll n 8	64.8	3 4/3
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Werder Bremen Attacking

Werder Bremen — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
N. Füllkrug	6	76456 min	51 /90	00 /90	153 /90	102 /90	81.6 /90	10.2 /90
C. Itten	3	2575 min	00 /90	00 /90	33.6 /90	00 /90	22.4 /90	33.6 /90
J. Njinmah	2	67134 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90	21.3 /90	00 /90	42.7 /90
P. Erevbenagie	2	3468 min	00 /90	00 /90	11.3 /90	11.3 /90	11.3 /90	56.6 /90
S. Mbangula	1	4545 min	00 /90	00 /90	12 /90	12 /90	24 /90	00 /90
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Werder Bremen — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Werder Bremen before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
O. Deman n 8	90	0.9 4/3	0.6 4/1
M. Friedl n 8	84.4	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
L. Reis n 6	83.8	1.3 3/3	0.7 3/1
Chuky San José n 6	79.8	1.3 4/2	0.8 2/1
M. Grüll n 8	64.8	1.6 6/1	0.7 3/1
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Werder Bremen — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Werder Bremen before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
O. Deman n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
M. Friedl n 8	84.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Reis n 6	83.8	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
Chuky San José n 6	79.8	0 0/0	0.4 2/0
M. Grüll n 8	64.8	0.3 2/0	0.9 5/0
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SC Paderborn 07

SC Paderborn 07 Goalkeeper

SC Paderborn 07 — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
N. Noll	5	90450 min	193.8 /90	71.4 /90	00 /90
M. Schubert	1	9090 min	44 /90	22 /90	00 /90

SC Paderborn 07 — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
N. Noll n 5	90	3.8 4/4
M. Schubert n 3	91.7	2.9 3/2

SC Paderborn 07 Defensive

SC Paderborn 07 — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
T. Scheller	6	89535 min	132.2 /90	50.8 /90	91.5 /90	376.2 /90	50.8 /90	10.2 /90
J. ter Horst	6	89532 min	122 /90	152.5 /90	71.2 /90	284.7 /90	50.8 /90	10.2 /90
M. Hansen	6	81483 min	132.4 /90	132.4 /90	50.9 /90	295.4 /90	40.7 /90	10.2 /90
Jonah Benedict Sticker	2	2142 min	24.3 /90	12.1 /90	12.1 /90	24.3 /90	12.1 /90	00 /90
F. Götze	1	1515 min	16 /90	212 /90	16 /90	16 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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SC Paderborn 07 — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
S. Castañeda n 8	89	0.9 5/2	1.9 7/5	L. Reis
T. Scheller n 8	89.4	0.6 3/1	0.6 3/2	M. Friedl
J. ter Horst n 6	88.7	0.8 3/2	0.5 3/0	O. Deman
L. Curda n 8	87.1	1.5 5/3	1.5 7/2	M. Grüll
L. Ulrich n 6	81	0.9 4/1	2.4 6/5	Chuky San José
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SC Paderborn 07 — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
S. Castañeda n 8	89	2 7/4
T. Scheller n 8	89.4	1.6 6/4
J. ter Horst n 6	88.7	2 6/3
L. Curda n 8	87.1	2.8 7/7
L. Ulrich n 6	81	1.9 3/3
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SC Paderborn 07 Attacking

SC Paderborn 07 — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
S. Tigges	6	29174 min	10.5 /90	00 /90	126.2 /90	21 /90	31.6 /90	21 /90
M. Pieringer	5	75376 min	00 /90	00 /90	51.2 /90	10.2 /90	51.2 /90	10.2 /90
S. Marino	5	70349 min	20.5 /90	00 /90	71.8 /90	41 /90	41 /90	10.3 /90
R. Philippe	3	2782 min	00 /90	00 /90	33.3 /90	33.3 /90	22.2 /90	00 /90
A. Millgramm	1	4545 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	12 /90	00 /90
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SC Paderborn 07 — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
S. Castañeda n 8	89	1 6/2	0.6 5/0
T. Scheller n 8	89.4	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
J. ter Horst n 6	88.7	0.5 3/0	0.2 1/0
L. Curda n 8	87.1	0.9 4/2	0.1 1/0
L. Ulrich n 6	81	1.1 3/3	0 0/0
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SC Paderborn 07 — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
S. Castañeda n 8	89	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
T. Scheller n 8	89.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. ter Horst n 6	88.7	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
L. Curda n 8	87.1	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
L. Ulrich n 6	81	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Werder Bremen		SC Paderborn 07
61%	Possession	39%
3.21	Expected goals (xG)	1.15
18	Shots	11
11	Shots on target	4
4	Shots off target	5
3	Blocked shots	2
13	Shots inside the box	9
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
11	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	9
628	Passes	399
85%	Pass accuracy	79%

Werder Bremen Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Arthur	90	0	0	1	1	3	3	0	6.6
O. Deman	90	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	6.9
M. Friedl	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
N. Füllkrug	90	2	0	6	5	1	0	0	7.9
M. Grüll	90	0	0	2	1	1	1	0	7.2
A. Pieper	90	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	7.6
K. Hein	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
Y. Regeer	88	0	0	1	1	2	3	Y	7.6
L. Reis	79	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.5
E. Dinkçi	63	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	7.3
Chuky San José	45	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	6.2
M. Weiser sub	45	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	7.3
C. Itten sub	27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Dariusz Stalmach sub	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
P. Erevbenagie sub	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	–

SC Paderborn 07 Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
S. Castañeda	90	0	0	1	0	1	4	0	7.7
L. Curda	90	0	0	1	0	1	4	0	6.2
R. Obermair	90	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	7.9
T. Scheller	90	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	7.2
J. ter Horst	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.6
N. Noll	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9.7
M. Hansen	88	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
G. Vidovic	75	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
S. Tigges	75	1	1	3	2	1	2	0	8.2
S. Marino	66	1	0	3	2	0	0	Y	7.2
L. Ulrich	66	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6.5
T. Baack sub	24	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
R. Philippe sub	24	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.3
Ruben Müller sub	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
M. Pieringer sub	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Jonah Benedict Sticker sub	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Werder BremenLWDWD

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 2 scored / 2 conceded per game

SC Paderborn 07DLLWL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Werder Bremen 3 · 1 draw · SC Paderborn 07 2 · 4 goals/game

2024-10-30 SC Paderborn 07 0–1 Werder Bremen
2022-10-19 SC Paderborn 07 2–2 Werder Bremen
2022-01-22 SC Paderborn 07 3–4 Werder Bremen
2021-08-15 Werder Bremen 1–4 SC Paderborn 07
2020-06-13 SC Paderborn 07 1–5 Werder Bremen
2019-12-08 Werder Bremen 0–1 SC Paderborn 07

League standing · 2026/27

Werder Bremen#5 pos15 pts8 pl+3 GD

SC Paderborn 07#14 pos9 pts8 pl-3 GD

Goals per game

Werder Bremen scored2.13

SC Paderborn 07 scored0.75

Werder Bremen conceded1.75

SC Paderborn 07 conceded1.13

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Werder Bremen 2.67 xG from 18 shots, SC Paderborn 07 1.37 from 11. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Werder Bremen (attacking right)SC Paderborn 07 (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
Werder Bremen	18	2	2.67
SC Paderborn 07	11	2	1.37

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Werder Bremen 0.78, SC Paderborn 07 1.09. At full time, Werder Bremen led on xG, 2.67 to 1.37, 0.76 of it from a penalty. The widest gap was 1.40 xG to Werder Bremen, in the 83rd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)

Werder Bremen 2.67 xGSC Paderborn 07 1.37 xGdots = goals · 29 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 was Home or Draw (best price 1.25 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07?: In their last 6 meetings, Werder Bremen won 3, SC Paderborn 07 won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07?: Recent form — Werder Bremen 2W 2D 1L; SC Paderborn 07 1W 1D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 31 Oct 2026, 03:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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