Derby v Millwall prediction

Championship · Sat, 23 Jan 2027 15:00 GMT · Pride Park

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Derby · Millwall · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for Derby v Millwall, Championship on Sat, 23 Jan 2027 15:00 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Derby host Millwall in the Championship on Saturday 23 January (kick-off 15:00 UK).

The key numbers

Millwall are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Derby, every meeting checked.

Form and the table

Nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Derby have one win, two draws and five defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 0.63 points per game, scoring 0.88 and conceding 1.88. Derby have scored 14 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 15 games). Derby have conceded 30 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

11 of Millwall’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in seven of Millwall’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Millwall have two wins, one draw and five defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.88 points per game, scoring 0.88 and conceding 2.25. Millwall have scored 23 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 15 games). Millwall have conceded 27 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Derby (23rd) and Millwall (16th) are eight points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Millwall the stronger side, 98 rating points above Derby (Millwall 1426, Derby 1329, after at least 342 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 31 October 2026, finished Millwall 4–1 Derby.

Team news

Predicted Derby XI (4-2-3-1): J. Widell Zetterström, R. Nyambe, D. Sanderson, J. Robinson, R. Hedges, B. Clark, D. Ozoh, S. Szmodics, R. Brewster, M. Fuseini, C. Morris — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Bobby Clark (3.8 per match over 16 appearances, three goals and two assists) and Carlton Morris (3.6 per match over 12 appearances, one goal and two assists) have been Derby’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Derby (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bobby Clark averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 1365 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Carlton Morris averages 1.6 shots per 90 over 1037 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Millwall XI (4-2-3-1): M. Crocombe, J. Cooper, C. Taylor, Z. Sturge, J. Osei-Tutu, C. Neghli, D. Mazou-Sacko, J. Metcalfe, K. Lisbie, L. Cundle, L. Dykes — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Caleb Taylor (4.6 per match over 17 appearances, two goals and two assists) and Jenson Metcalfe (3.8 per match over 17 appearances, one goal and two assists) have been Millwall’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Millwall (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Caleb Taylor averages 1.2 tackles per 90 over 1535 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances. Jenson Metcalfe averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 1312 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 23 Jan 2027 15:00 GMT · Championship · Pride Park
Head-to-head (last 6): Derby 0 · draws 2 · Millwall 4 · 2.33 goals/game
Recent form: Derby 1W 1D 3L · Millwall 1W 1D 3L

Derby v Millwall (Championship): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 1.25

Goals

against 2.13 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.5 / 5.88

Corners

against 4.88 / 5.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.25 / 4.13

Shots on target

against 6.13 / 4.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.25 / 2.5

Cards

against 1.88 / 2.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 7 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Derby for / against	Line	Millwall for / against
Goals scored	1 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.25 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.5 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.88 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	12.25 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	13.63 for · 13.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.25 for · 6.13 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.13 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.5 for · 8.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12 for · 11.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.25 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.5 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5

Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström	12	901085 min	544.5 /90	161.3 /90	00 /90
J. Vickers	4	90360 min	92.3 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90

Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	4.6 7/7
J. Vickers n 8	89.5	2 6/3

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Sanderson	14	821151 min	131 /90	161.3 /90	110.9 /90	554.3 /90	120.9 /90	40.3 /90
S. Langås	10	91905 min	171.7 /90	60.6 /90	50.5 /90	414.1 /90	70.7 /90	40.4 /90
J. Ward	10	80800 min	161.8 /90	171.9 /90	20.2 /90	353.9 /90	50.6 /90	00 /90
C. Taylor	9	86774 min	161.9 /90	80.9 /90	80.9 /90	354.1 /90	101.2 /90	10.1 /90
M. Johnston	8	50396 min	81.8 /90	30.7 /90	20.5 /90	92 /90	40.9 /90	10.2 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.6 4/1	1.4 6/3	—
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.7 4/1	0.1 1/0	—
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0	—
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
C. Morris n 8	84.3	1.9 7/5	0.8 6/0	—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	1.6 6/3
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	1 4/2
S. Szmodics n 8	78	1.6 6/2
C. Morris n 8	84.3	0.8 5/1
A. Mowatt n 8	67.1	1.7 4/3
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. Morris	12	861037 min	10.1 /90	20.2 /90	181.6 /90	70.6 /90	141.2 /90	50.4 /90
R. Brewster	11	44481 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	50.9 /90	20.4 /90	40.7 /90	20.4 /90
H. Meister	9	47426 min	00 /90	00 /90	102.1 /90	30.6 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90
L. Salvesen	7	33230 min	20.8 /90	00 /90	114.3 /90	52 /90	31.2 /90	20.8 /90
B. Clark	16	851365 min	30.2 /90	20.1 /90	211.4 /90	90.6 /90	231.5 /90	181.2 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	1.3 7/2	0.8 4/2
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
S. Szmodics n 8	78	2 6/5	0.9 4/2
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Morris n 8	84.3	1.6 6/3	0.5 4/0
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Morris n 8	84.3	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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Millwall

Millwall Goalkeeper

Millwall — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
M. Crocombe	11	86945 min	282.7 /90	151.4 /90
F. Marschall	5	81405 min	112.4 /90	30.7 /90
L. Jensen	2	90180 min	21 /90	00 /90

Millwall — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Crocombe n 8	84.4	3.2 5/5
F. Marschall n 5	81	2.4 2/2

Millwall Defensive

Millwall — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Cooper	17	901522 min	150.9 /90	191.1 /90	140.8 /90	995.9 /90	191.1 /90	20.1 /90
C. Taylor	16	901440 min	171.1 /90	402.5 /90	120.8 /90	1016.3 /90	90.6 /90	00 /90
Zak Norton Sturge	16	801280 min	221.5 /90	191.3 /90	90.6 /90	694.9 /90	211.5 /90	40.3 /90
J. Osei-Tutu	10	71707 min	91.1 /90	70.9 /90	20.3 /90	344.3 /90	70.9 /90	10.1 /90
E. Baggott	6	53317 min	41.1 /90	41.1 /90	10.3 /90	185.1 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
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Millwall — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Cooper n 8	90	1.8 6/5	0.8 4/2	—
C. Neghli n 8	87.9	1.2 5/3	0.4 3/0	—
C. Taylor n 8	90	0.6 3/1	0.5 3/1	—
Zak Norton Sturge n 8	82.9	1.4 6/4	1.4 5/5	—
Jenson Metcalfe n 8	81.1	1.4 6/2	1.9 7/5	—
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Millwall — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Cooper n 8	90	1 4/2
C. Neghli n 8	87.9	1.5 7/4
C. Taylor n 8	90	1.1 6/3
Zak Norton Sturge n 8	82.9	1 4/2
Jenson Metcalfe n 8	81.1	3.5 8/7
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Millwall Attacking

Millwall — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
L. Dykes	14	791106 min	40.3 /90	20.2 /90	242 /90	80.7 /90	151.2 /90	40.3 /90
T. Arconte	9	69619 min	30.4 /90	00 /90	111.6 /90	40.6 /90	50.7 /90	60.9 /90
J. Coburn	6	63377 min	20.5 /90	00 /90	92.1 /90	51.2 /90	71.7 /90	10.2 /90
Z. Lovelace	6	35212 min	00 /90	20.8 /90	10.4 /90	00 /90	20.8 /90	10.4 /90
Y. Issoufou	4	31123 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90
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Millwall — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Cooper n 8	90	1 5/3	0.5 4/0
C. Neghli n 8	87.9	1.4 7/3	0.4 2/1
C. Taylor n 8	90	1 6/2	0.4 3/0
Zak Norton Sturge n 8	82.9	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
Jenson Metcalfe n 8	81.1	0.7 4/1	0.3 2/0
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Millwall — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Cooper n 8	90	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
C. Neghli n 8	87.9	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
C. Taylor n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
Zak Norton Sturge n 8	82.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
Jenson Metcalfe n 8	81.1	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Derby v Millwall — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

DerbyLDLLW

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

MillwallDLWLL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.4 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Derby 0 · 2 draws · Millwall 4 · 2.33 goals/game

2026-10-31 Millwall 4–1 Derby
2026-03-10 Millwall 1–0 Derby
2025-12-10 Derby 1–1 Millwall
2025-02-22 Derby 0–1 Millwall
2024-10-19 Millwall 1–1 Derby
2022-02-23 Derby 1–2 Millwall

League standing · 2026/27

Derby#23 pos10 pts15 pl-16 GD

Millwall#16 pos18 pts15 pl-4 GD

Goals per game

Derby scored0.93

Millwall scored1.53

Derby conceded2

Millwall conceded1.8

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Millwall?: In their last 6 meetings, Derby won 0, Millwall won 4 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Derby and Millwall?: Recent form — Derby 1W 1D 3L; Millwall 1W 1D 3L.

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