Middlesbrough v Cardiff prediction

Championship · · Riverside Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Middlesbrough · Cardiff · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff, Championship on Sat, 17 Oct 2026 12:30 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.40 at Bet365
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 648 landed (95% range 61.8–69.1%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Middlesbrough host Cardiff in the Championship on Saturday 17 October (kick-off 12:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last five matches. Middlesbrough have scored in five consecutive matches.

Middlesbrough are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Cardiff.

Form and the table

10 of Middlesbrough’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 10 of Middlesbrough’s last 15 results (67%). At home, Middlesbrough have five wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 6 home matches — 2.67 points per game, scoring 2.17 and conceding 1.17. Middlesbrough have scored 20 goals, the second-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far). Middlesbrough have conceded 14 goals, the 12th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

10 of Cardiff’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 12 of Cardiff’s last 15 results (80%). Away from home, Cardiff have no wins, one draw and five defeats in their last 6 away matches — 0.17 points per game, scoring 1.33 and conceding 2.33. Cardiff have scored 16 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far). Cardiff have conceded 15 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Middlesbrough (second) and Cardiff (18th) are 11 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Middlesbrough the stronger side, 326 rating points above Cardiff (Middlesbrough 1707, Cardiff 1381, after at least 334 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 4 January 2025, finished Middlesbrough 1–1 Cardiff.

Team news

Predicted Middlesbrough XI (4-2-3-1): R. Vítek, A. Malanda, N. Borges, L. Ayling, A. Phillips, A. Morris, S. Berhalter, R. McGree, A. Cozier-Duberry, T. Conway, W. Lankshear — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Amario Cozier-Duberry (5.6 per match over six appearances, two goals and two assists) and Aidan Morris (5.1 per match over 11 appearances, one goal) have been Middlesbrough’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Middlesbrough (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Amario Cozier-Duberry averages 2.5 key passes per 90 over 509 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last seven appearances. Aidan Morris averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 970 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Cardiff XI (4-2-3-1): N. Trott, P. Ng, G. Osho, J. Bagan, K. Bielik, A. Robertson, O. Tanner, J. Moylan, J. Colwill, C. Willock, Y. Salech — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Jack Moylan (4.8 per match over 12 appearances, six goals and two assists) and Yousef Salech (4.1 per match over 10 appearances, five goals and two assists) have been Cardiff’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Cardiff (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Jack Moylan averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 1265 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Yousef Salech averages 2.9 shots per 90 over 813 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Championship · Riverside Stadium
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Middlesbrough 4 · draws 1 · Cardiff 1 · 3.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Middlesbrough 3W 2D 0L · Cardiff 2W 1D 2L

Middlesbrough v Cardiff (Championship): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 14 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 1.63
Goals
against 1.63 / 1.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.75
over 8 matches
4.63 / 7.38
Corners
against 4.88 / 3.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.5 / 6.75
Shots on target
against 3.75 / 4.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.63 / 2.13
Cards
against 1.38 / 2.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 13 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 13 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameMiddlesbrough for / againstLineCardiff for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.75our book
1.63 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
4.63 for · 4.88 against n 8
9.5standard
7.38 for · 3.75 against n 8
Shots
16.25 for · 11.75 against n 8
19.5standard
19.5 for · 12.13 against n 8
Shots on target
5.5 for · 3.75 against n 8
8.5standard
6.75 for · 4.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
9.5 for · 9.63 against n 8
21.5standard
10.25 for · 13.38 against n 8
Cards shown
1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8
3.5standard
2.13 for · 2.13 against n 8
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
R. Pukštas n 863.1
3.47/7
1.85/3
—
Sebastian Berhalter n 855.5
1.83/3
1.65/2
—
Maximilian Arfsten n 843.4
1.85/1
0.83/0
—
A. Cozier-Duberry n 874.9
1.45/3
0.63/1
—
W. Lankshear n 874.8
1.46/2
0.93/2
—
Middlesbrough — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Cozier-Duberry n 874.9
2.78/5
1.55/4
W. Lankshear n 874.8
2.66/5
1.75/4
R. Pukštas n 863.1
2.56/3
1.45/2
K. Joseph n 834.4
25/1
13/0
R. McGree n 850
1.86/2
0.52/0
Middlesbrough — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Sebastian Berhalter n 855.5
0.42/0
0.42/0
J. Sarmiento n 843
0.52/0
0.31/0
R. Pukštas n 863.1
0.53/0
0.21/0
T. Conway n 845.3
00/0
0.72/1
A. Cozier-Duberry n 874.9
0.32/0
0.32/0
Middlesbrough — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Morris n 889.3
4.38/7
R. Pukštas n 863.1
2.75/4
J. Sarmiento n 843
2.46/3
C. Brittain n 890
2.37/4
Maximilian Arfsten n 843.4
2.14/2
Middlesbrough — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
S. Brynn n 893.8
2.56/3
R. Vítek n 890
2.57/2
Cardiff
Cardiff — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Colwill n 856.9
2.46/5
3.66/4
—
R. Colwill n 859.1
1.96/3
1.36/1
—
I. Davies n 823.9
1.93/1
0.92/0
—
J. Moylan n 872.9
1.75/4
2.57/5
—
P. Ng n 890
1.56/3
27/5
—
Cardiff — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Y. Salech n 879.1
3.38/6
27/4
O. Tanner n 883.3
37/7
0.85/1
J. Moylan n 872.9
2.95/3
1.44/2
C. Robinson n 834
2.66/1
1.75/0
D. Turnbull n 839.8
25/2
0.62/0
Cardiff — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Moylan n 872.9
0.83/2
0.53/0
C. Robinson n 834
13/0
0.31/0
R. Colwill n 859.1
0.21/0
0.63/0
Cian Ashford n 842.8
0.31/0
0.52/0
Y. Salech n 879.1
0.43/0
0.11/0
Cardiff — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
R. Kpakio n 849.1
2.14/4
P. Ng n 890
28/4
Joel Bagan n 866.4
25/3
A. Robertson n 889.8
1.56/3
R. Colwill n 859.1
1.54/2
Cardiff — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 13 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
N. Trott n 890
38/5

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Middlesbrough v Cardiff — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
MiddlesbroughWDDWW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 2.4 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
CardiffDLWLW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Middlesbrough 4 · 1 draw · Cardiff 1 · 3.33 goals/game
  • 2025-01-04 Middlesbrough 1–1 Cardiff
  • 2024-08-31 Cardiff 0–2 Middlesbrough
  • 2024-04-27 Cardiff 1–4 Middlesbrough
  • 2023-10-03 Middlesbrough 2–0 Cardiff
  • 2023-02-11 Cardiff 1–3 Middlesbrough
  • 2022-09-13 Middlesbrough 2–3 Cardiff
League standing · 2026/27
Middlesbrough#2 pos21 pts10 pl+6 GD
Cardiff#18 pos10 pts10 pl+1 GD
Goals per game
Middlesbrough scored2
Cardiff scored1.6
Middlesbrough conceded1.4
Cardiff conceded1.5

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Middlesbrough v Cardiff is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.40 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Cardiff?
In their last 6 meetings, Middlesbrough won 4, Cardiff won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Middlesbrough and Cardiff?
Recent form — Middlesbrough 3W 2D 0L; Cardiff 2W 1D 2L.

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