This Matchweek

MillwallBolton

Millwall v Bolton result

Full-time · Millwall 4–0 Bolton

Championship · · The Den

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Millwall · Bolton

The model’s pre-match pick

Millwall 4–0 Bolton — Millwall won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.30 at Bet365
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Millwall beat Bolton 4–0 at The Den in the Championship on Saturday 5 September. Bolton are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

The goals

Millwall led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Millwall: Caleb Taylor (38’, assisted by Jenson Metcalfe), Lyndon Dykes (83’, assisted by Zakariya Lovelace; 88’, assisted by Zak Norton Sturge) and Camiel Neghli (90’). Jenson Metcalfe (86’) and Joshua Sheehan (86’) were sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s six key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Caleb Taylor’s goal on 38 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Millwall 2.65, Bolton 0.95, from 12 shots to 13 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Will Finnie, England showed one yellow card and two reds — against 2.8 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Bolton: Akinlolu Famewo (75’).

What it changes

Millwall move up from 11th to fifth (five league matches played). Millwall have scored 10 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). Millwall have conceded eight goals, the 11th-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Bolton move down from 14th to 19th (five league matches played). Bolton have scored four goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). Bolton have conceded nine goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Lyndon Dykes (Millwall) 9.3, Caleb Taylor (Millwall) 6.5 and Maxime Crocombe (Millwall) 4.7 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Millwall or Bolton (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

Millwall next host QPR on 21 November 2026.

Bolton next host Portsmouth on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Millwall: Millwall v QPR, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Bolton: Bolton v Portsmouth, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Millwall 4–0 Bolton · Championship
  • Venue: The Den · London
  • Referee: Will Finnie, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 4): Millwall 1 · draws 2 · Bolton 1 · 2.25 goals/game
  • Recent form: Millwall 3W 0D 2L · Bolton 1W 1D 3L

Millwall 4–0 Bolton (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 19 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.38 / 0.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.25
over 8 matches
5.43 / 5.5
Corners
against 4.43 / 4.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
3.71 / 3.88
Shots on target
against 3 / 3.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.14 / 1.25
Cards
against 2.29 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
2.83 yellows
Referee · Will Finnie, England
23 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 6 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 2 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 2 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameMillwall for / againstLineBolton for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.25our book
1.25 for · 0.88 against n 8
Corners won
5.43 for · 4.43 against n 7
9.5standard
5.5 for · 4.75 against n 8
Shots
13.86 for · 10.71 against n 7
19.5standard
13.38 for · 10 against n 8
Shots on target
3.71 for · 3 against n 7
8.5standard
3.88 for · 3.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.14 for · 8.86 against n 7
21.5standard
9.88 for · 11.5 against n 8
Cards shown
1.14 for · 2.29 against n 7
3.5standard
1.25 for · 1.5 against n 8

Referee: Will Finnie, England — 2.83 yellow cards a game, 0.33 red cards, 23 fouls over 6 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Millwall

Millwall Goalkeeper

Millwall — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Crocombe390270 min41.3 /9082.7 /9000 /90
L. Jensen290180 min21 /9000 /9000 /90
Millwall — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Crocombe n 890
2.35/2
L. Jensen n 890
2.65/3

Millwall Defensive

Millwall — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Cooper590450 min30.6 /9081.6 /9051 /90295.8 /9020.4 /9000 /90
Zak Norton Sturge571353 min102.5 /9051.3 /9010.3 /90174.3 /9051.3 /9000 /90
C. Taylor490360 min30.8 /9061.5 /9051.3 /90215.3 /9030.8 /9000 /90
E. Baggott358173 min42.1 /9031.6 /9010.5 /90168.3 /9010.5 /9000 /90
J. Osei-Tutu24079 min22.3 /9011.1 /9000 /9044.6 /9011.1 /9000 /90
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Millwall — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Cooper n 890
0.84/2
16/2
A. Famewo
Zak Norton Sturge n 869.9
1.15/1
1.14/3
C. Forino-Joseph
C. Neghli n 876.6
16/1
0.42/1
—
M. Sykes n 564.6
0.31/0
0.31/0
—
Jenson Metcalfe n 564.2
3.65/3
0.82/1
J. Sheehan
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Millwall — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Cooper n 890
0.64/1
Zak Norton Sturge n 869.9
2.36/5
C. Neghli n 876.6
13/1
M. Sykes n 564.6
2.24/3
Jenson Metcalfe n 564.2
2.85/3
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Millwall Attacking

Millwall — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
J. Coburn476304 min20.6 /9000 /9072.1 /9051.5 /9051.5 /9010.3 /90
T. Arconte369206 min20.9 /9000 /9062.6 /9031.3 /9020.9 /9020.9 /90
K. Lisbie367200 min00 /9000 /9031.4 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9020.9 /90
Z. Lovelace337110 min00 /9010.8 /9010.8 /9000 /9010.8 /9000 /90
L. Dykes290180 min00 /9000 /9031.5 /9000 /9021 /9010.5 /90
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Millwall — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Cooper n 890
0.63/2
0.42/1
Zak Norton Sturge n 869.9
0.21/0
0.21/0
C. Neghli n 876.6
1.56/4
0.32/0
M. Sykes n 564.6
0.83/0
0.31/0
Jenson Metcalfe n 564.2
1.13/1
00/0
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Millwall — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Cooper n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
Zak Norton Sturge n 869.9
00/0
00/0
C. Neghli n 876.6
00/0
0.11/0
M. Sykes n 564.6
0.31/0
00/0
Jenson Metcalfe n 564.2
00/0
0.31/0
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Bolton

Bolton Goalkeeper

Bolton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Bonham591457 min163.2 /9061.2 /9000 /90
Bolton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Bonham n 890.9
2.65/2

Bolton Defensive

Bolton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
C. Forino-Joseph587436 min132.7 /9091.9 /9061.2 /90408.3 /9020.4 /9010.2 /90
A. Famewo575374 min92.2 /9061.4 /9010.2 /90307.2 /9051.2 /9010.2 /90
M. Conway474297 min30.9 /9010.3 /9030.9 /90154.5 /9020.6 /9000 /90
L. Brunt375225 min41.6 /9041.6 /9010.4 /90166.4 /9010.4 /9000 /90
B. Davies370211 min10.4 /9010.4 /9010.4 /90104.3 /9010.4 /9000 /90
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Bolton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Dalby n 873.5
1.26/2
1.45/3
—
J. Sheehan n 890.9
1.15/3
1.48/2
Jenson Metcalfe
J. Bonham n 890.9
00/0
0.21/1
—
C. Forino-Joseph n 888.3
0.32/0
1.58/3
Zak Norton Sturge
A. Famewo n 574.8
1.24/1
1.73/3
J. Cooper
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Bolton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Sheehan n 890.9
1.66/4
S. Dalby n 873.5
0.84/1
C. Forino-Joseph n 888.3
2.28/6
A. Famewo n 574.8
2.24/2
T. Gale n 860.3
0.73/1
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Bolton Attacking

Bolton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
S. Dalby591457 min20.4 /9000 /9071.4 /9030.6 /9040.8 /9000 /90
K. Dong32677 min00 /9000 /9022.3 /9011.2 /9011.2 /9000 /90
R. Hardie32164 min00 /9000 /9011.4 /9000 /9022.8 /9000 /90
Ruben Rodrigues24487 min00 /9000 /9044.1 /9011 /9044.1 /9011 /90
J. Nelson11919 min00 /9000 /9014.7 /9014.7 /9029.5 /9029.5 /90
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Bolton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Dalby n 873.5
1.86/4
0.84/1
J. Sheehan n 890.9
15/1
0.54/0
J. Bonham n 890.9
00/0
00/0
C. Forino-Joseph n 888.3
0.84/2
0.32/0
A. Famewo n 574.8
0.21/0
0.21/0
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Bolton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Dalby n 873.5
0.53/0
00/0
J. Bonham n 890.9
00/0
00/0
J. Sheehan n 890.9
00/0
00/0
C. Forino-Joseph n 888.3
00/0
00/0
A. Famewo n 574.8
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
MillwallBolton
39%Possession61%
2.65Expected goals (xG)0.95
12Shots13
5Shots on target4
4Shots off target5
3Blocked shots4
11Shots inside the box11
3Corners9
8Offsides0
13Fouls14
0Yellow cards1
1Red cards1
4Saves1
265Passes412
70%Pass accuracy81%

Millwall Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Crocombe9000000008.9
C. Taylor9010310108.5
Zak Norton Sturge9001101006.9
C. Neghli9010111007.9
L. Dykes9020320008.7
J. Cooper9000000007.7
Jenson Metcalfe86010033R7.7
J. Osei-Tutu8100110307.3
R. Esse6500001206.6
T. Arconte6500000006.6
D. Mazou-Sacko5500000307.3
D. Kelly sub3500000006.3
Z. Lovelace sub2501001006.9
Y. Issoufou sub2500001106.9
E. Baggott sub900000006.9

Bolton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Bonham9000000005.9
T. Gale9000210006.7
C. Forino-Joseph9000100106.3
B. Davies9000000006
J. Sheehan86002121R6.6
L. Brunt8100003106.9
X. Simons7600110106.6
A. Famewo75001002Y6.7
S. Iling-Junior6000001006.3
S. Dalby6000101006.2
J. McAtee4500000106.3
Ruben Rodrigues sub4500112007.3
K. Dong sub3000001006.7
Thelonius Bair sub3000000006.2
M. Conway sub1500000005.3
R. Hardie sub1400000006.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Millwall v Bolton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
MillwallWWWLL
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
BoltonLWDLL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 4
Millwall 1 · 2 draws · Bolton 1 · 2.25 goals/game
  • 2019-03-09 Bolton 2–1 Millwall
  • 2018-11-24 Millwall 1–1 Bolton
  • 2018-04-10 Bolton 0–2 Millwall
  • 2017-08-12 Millwall 1–1 Bolton
League standing · 2026/27
Millwall#13 pos18 pts14 pl-1 GD
Bolton#17 pos17 pts15 pl-9 GD
Goals per game
Millwall scored1.64
Bolton scored1.33
Millwall conceded1.71
Bolton conceded1.93

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Millwall v Bolton?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Millwall v Bolton was Home or Away (best price 1.30 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Bolton?
In their last 4 meetings, Millwall won 1, Bolton won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.25 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Millwall and Bolton?
Recent form — Millwall 3W 0D 2L; Bolton 1W 1D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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