Norwich v Derby prediction

Championship · Tue, 26 Jan 2027 19:45 GMT · Carrow Road

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Norwich · Derby · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for Norwich v Derby, Championship on Tue, 26 Jan 2027 19:45 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Norwich host Derby in the Championship on Tuesday 26 January (kick-off 19:45 UK).

The key numbers

12 of Norwich’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%).

Form and the table

Both teams scored in nine of Norwich’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Norwich have three wins, no draws and three defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 1.50 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.67. Norwich have scored 27 goals, the fourth-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Norwich have conceded 24 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Derby have one win, two draws and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.71 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 2.14. Derby have scored 11 goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Derby have conceded 29 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs.

Norwich have won their last three matches in all competitions. Derby are winless in their last 10 matches in all competitions. Norwich (12th) and Derby (23rd) are 11 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Norwich the stronger side, 279 rating points above Derby (Norwich 1535, Derby 1256, after at least 338 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 3 November 2026, finished Derby 0–4 Norwich.

Team news

Predicted Norwich XI (4-2-3-1): D. Grimshaw, R. McConville, J. Stacey, B. Chrisene, J. Córdoba, J. Wright, A. Brooks, P. Maghoma, S. Field, O. Schwartau, M. Kvistgaarden — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Jack Stacey (4.5 per match over 14 appearances, one goal and three assists) and D. Yongwa (4.0 per match over eight appearances, one goal) have been Norwich’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Norwich (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Jack Stacey averages 3.2 tackles per 90 over 1144 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances. D. Yongwa averages 4.6 tackles per 90 over 452 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last eight appearances.

Predicted Derby XI (4-2-3-1): J. Widell Zetterström, R. Nyambe, D. Sanderson, R. Hedges, M. Johnston, B. Clark, S. Szmodics, D. Ozoh, A. Mowatt, R. Brewster, C. Morris — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Bobby Clark (4.0 per match over 15 appearances, three goals and two assists) and Carlton Morris (3.4 per match over 11 appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Derby’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Derby (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bobby Clark averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 1275 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Carlton Morris averages 1.6 shots per 90 over 948 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Tue, 26 Jan 2027 19:45 GMT · Championship · Carrow Road
Head-to-head (last 6): Norwich 4 · draws 1 · Derby 1 · 2.67 goals/game
Recent form: Norwich 3W 0D 2L · Derby 0W 1D 4L

Norwich v Derby (Championship): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 0.75

Goals

against 2 / 2.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.5 / 5.25

Corners

against 2.5 / 4.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.13 / 4.13

Shots on target

against 4.38 / 6.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.25 / 2.25

Cards

against 1.38 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 3 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Norwich for / against	Line	Derby for / against
Goals scored	1.75 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.75 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.5 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.25 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	12.13 for · 10.13 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	13.38 for · 15.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.13 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.13 for · 6.5 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.25 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11 for · 9 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.25 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.25 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5

Norwich

Norwich Goalkeeper

Norwich — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
V. Kovačević	10	91909 min	252.5 /90	202 /90	10.1 /90
D. Grimshaw	7	90630 min	142 /90	40.6 /90	00 /90

Norwich — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norwich before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
V. Kovačević n 8	90	2.6 6/4
D. Grimshaw n 8	84.4	1.9 5/2

Norwich Defensive

Norwich — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Ruairi McConville	15	811209 min	151.1 /90	181.3 /90	70.5 /90	644.8 /90	30.2 /90	20.1 /90
J. Stacey	14	821144 min	413.2 /90	252 /90	40.3 /90	695.4 /90	90.7 /90	30.2 /90
J. Córdoba	13	891153 min	131 /90	80.6 /90	80.6 /90	443.4 /90	151.2 /90	70.5 /90
B. Chrisene	13	831077 min	322.7 /90	161.3 /90	50.4 /90	655.4 /90	80.7 /90	10.1 /90
H. Darling	7	81569 min	40.6 /90	30.5 /90	60.9 /90	223.5 /90	50.8 /90	10.2 /90
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Norwich — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norwich before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
A. Brooks n 8	70.4	1 5/1	1 4/2	—
Ruairi McConville n 8	81.1	0 0/0	1 6/1	—
P. Mattsson n 8	84.4	2.7 6/6	1.7 7/3	—
J. Stacey n 8	81.9	0.5 3/1	1 3/3	—
A. Musaba n 8	47.6	0.5 2/0	0.5 1/1	—
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Norwich — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norwich before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Brooks n 8	70.4	0.8 4/1
Ruairi McConville n 8	81.1	1.5 6/3
P. Mattsson n 8	84.4	2.8 8/6
J. Stacey n 8	81.9	3.8 8/6
A. Musaba n 8	47.6	0.9 4/0
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Norwich Attacking

Norwich — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
M. Kvistgaarden	13	52675 min	30.4 /90	40.5 /90	101.3 /90	60.8 /90	81.1 /90	10.1 /90
M. Touré	9	60536 min	61 /90	10.2 /90	132.2 /90	81.3 /90	81.3 /90	10.2 /90
J. Makama	9	36323 min	20.6 /90	00 /90	102.8 /90	20.6 /90	10.3 /90	102.8 /90
P. Diallo	7	29205 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	41.8 /90	31.3 /90	31.3 /90	83.5 /90
A. Crnac	6	29172 min	10.5 /90	00 /90	63.1 /90	21 /90	31.6 /90	52.6 /90
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Norwich — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norwich before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
A. Brooks n 8	70.4	1.3 5/3	0.2 1/0
Ruairi McConville n 8	81.1	0.8 5/1	0.4 3/0
P. Mattsson n 8	84.4	0.7 4/1	0.3 1/1
J. Stacey n 8	81.9	0.5 3/1	0.1 1/0
A. Musaba n 8	47.6	2.6 7/4	1.7 5/2
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Norwich — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norwich before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
A. Brooks n 8	70.4	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Ruairi McConville n 8	81.1	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
P. Mattsson n 8	84.4	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
J. Stacey n 8	81.9	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
A. Musaba n 8	47.6	0.5 2/0	0 0/0
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Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström	11	90995 min	494.4 /90	161.4 /90	00 /90
J. Vickers	4	90360 min	92.3 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90

Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	5.1 7/7
J. Vickers n 8	89.5	2 6/3

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Sanderson	13	821061 min	131.1 /90	131.1 /90	110.9 /90	554.7 /90	121 /90	40.3 /90
S. Langås	10	91905 min	171.7 /90	60.6 /90	50.5 /90	414.1 /90	70.7 /90	40.4 /90
J. Ward	10	80800 min	161.8 /90	171.9 /90	20.2 /90	353.9 /90	50.6 /90	00 /90
C. Taylor	9	86774 min	161.9 /90	80.9 /90	80.9 /90	354.1 /90	101.2 /90	10.1 /90
M. Johnston	8	50396 min	81.8 /90	30.7 /90	20.5 /90	92 /90	40.9 /90	10.2 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.6 4/1	1.3 6/2	—
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0	—
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.8 5/1	0.3 2/0	—
R. Hedges n 8	72.4	0.6 4/0	1.2 4/3	—
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	2 6/4
S. Szmodics n 8	78	1.6 6/2
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	1.2 5/3
R. Hedges n 8	72.4	2.5 7/5
C. Morris n 8	84.4	0.8 5/1
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. Morris	11	86948 min	10.1 /90	10.1 /90	171.6 /90	60.6 /90	111 /90	50.5 /90
R. Brewster	10	39391 min	00 /90	00 /90	40.9 /90	10.2 /90	40.9 /90	20.5 /90
H. Meister	9	47426 min	00 /90	00 /90	102.1 /90	30.6 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90
L. Salvesen	7	33230 min	20.8 /90	00 /90	114.3 /90	52 /90	31.2 /90	20.8 /90
B. Clark	15	851275 min	30.2 /90	20.1 /90	201.4 /90	90.6 /90	231.6 /90	181.3 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	1.5 7/3	0.9 5/2
S. Szmodics n 8	78	2 6/5	0.9 4/2
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
R. Hedges n 8	72.4	0.8 3/2	0.5 3/0
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Hedges n 8	72.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Norwich v Derby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

NorwichLLWWW

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2 scored / 1 conceded per game

DerbyLLDLL

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.6 scored / 2.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Norwich 4 · 1 draw · Derby 1 · 2.67 goals/game

2026-11-03 Derby 0–4 Norwich
2026-04-21 Norwich 2–1 Derby
2025-10-21 Derby 1–0 Norwich
2025-02-08 Norwich 1–1 Derby
2024-09-28 Derby 2–3 Norwich
2021-04-10 Derby 0–1 Norwich

League standing · 2026/27

Norwich#12 pos18 pts14 pl+3 GD

Derby#23 pos7 pts14 pl-18 GD

Goals per game

Norwich scored1.93

Derby scored0.79

Norwich conceded1.71

Derby conceded2.07

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Derby?: In their last 6 meetings, Norwich won 4, Derby won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Norwich and Derby?: Recent form — Norwich 3W 0D 2L; Derby 0W 1D 4L.

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