Southampton v Stoke City result

Full-time · Southampton 1–2 Stoke City

Championship · · St. Mary's Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Southampton · Stoke City · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Southampton 1–2 Stoke City — Stoke City won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 78% of 214 landed (95% range 72–83.1%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Stoke City won 2–1 at St. Mary's Stadium in the Championship on Saturday 23 August. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Southampton out-shot Stoke City 18 to 12 and created the better chances, 2.59 xG to 1.50 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Stoke City: L. Baker (54’) and S. Thomas (76’, assisted by Viktor Johansson); Southampton: Taylor Harwood-Bellis (79’, assisted by Mateus Fernandes). Divin Mubama (59’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with L. Baker’s goal on 54 minutes.

Discipline

J. Smith showed six yellow cards and one red — against 4.2 yellows a game across the last 13 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Southampton: Nathan Wood (57’); Stoke City: Junior Tchamadeu (25’), Divin Mubama (28’), T. Seko (45+3’), Divin Mubama (59’) and Viktor Johansson (71’).

What it changes

Southampton move down from sixth to ninth (three league matches played).

Stoke City stay first after this result (three league matches played).

Stoke City are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions. Southampton have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Taylor Harwood-Bellis (Southampton) 6.9, S. Thomas (Stoke City) 5.9 and L. Baker (Stoke City) 5.2 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Southampton to win, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Southampton next travel to West Ham on 24 October 2026.

Stoke City next host Bristol City on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Southampton: West Ham v Southampton, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Stoke City: Stoke City v Bristol City, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Southampton 1–2 Stoke City · Championship
  • Venue: St. Mary's Stadium · Southampton
  • Referee: J. Smith
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 5): Southampton 2 · draws 1 · Stoke City 2 · 2 goals/game
  • Recent form: Southampton 2W 1D 2L · Stoke City 2W 2D 1L

Southampton 1–2 Stoke City (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.75 / 1.13
Goals
against 1.25 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.75 / 4.5
Corners
against 7.13 / 4.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.13 / 3.38
Shots on target
against 4.25 / 4 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.88 / 1.88
Cards
against 1.25 / 1.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.15 yellows
Referee · J. Smith
1.31 home / 2.85 away
over 13 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameSouthampton for / againstLineStoke City for / against
Goals scored
0.75 for · 1.25 against n 8
2.5standard
1.13 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
4.75 for · 7.13 against n 8
9.5standard
4.5 for · 4.38 against n 8
Shots
10.13 for · 17.75 against n 8
19.5standard
9.13 for · 12.13 against n 8
Shots on target
3.13 for · 4.25 against n 8
8.5standard
3.38 for · 4 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.5 for · 9.5 against n 8
21.5standard
11.38 for · 11.75 against n 8
Cards shown
1.88 for · 1.25 against n 8
3.5standard
1.88 for · 1.38 against n 8

Referee: J. Smith — 4.15 yellow cards a game, 0.38 red cards, 20.23 fouls over 13 matches (1.31 to the home side, 2.85 to the away side).

Southampton
Southampton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Downes n 880
2.18/4
1.47/3
—
K. Sulemana n 873.4
27/3
0.32/0
—
Mateus Fernandes n 872.8
1.96/4
1.95/4
—
T. Dibling n 841.6
1.95/1
1.65/1
—
A. Armstrong n 839.9
1.74/1
00/0
—
Southampton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Jay Robinson n 650.3
2.43/2
1.53/2
A. Armstrong n 839.9
24/1
1.44/1
Ross Stewart n 833.9
1.32/2
0.72/0
Y. Sugawara n 844
13/1
0.52/0
K. Sulemana n 873.4
0.95/1
0.53/0
Southampton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Mateus Fernandes n 872.8
0.21/0
0.21/0
Ryan Manning n 862.5
0.21/0
0.21/0
Cameron Archer n 828.8
00/0
0.41/0
J. Stephens n 884.4
0.32/0
00/0
Jay Robinson n 650.3
0.31/0
00/0
Southampton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Welington n 855.3
3.57/4
J. Stephens n 884.4
2.87/4
Cameron Archer n 828.8
2.32/2
Shea Charles n 886.6
2.17/6
Mateus Fernandes n 872.8
26/3
Stoke City
Stoke City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
W. Burger n 882.1
2.57/5
0.74/1
—
R. Boženík n 868.4
2.17/6
26/4
—
Ali Al Hamadi n 843.9
2.15/2
1.55/1
—
Jordan Thompson n 868.4
26/4
0.83/1
—
S. Gallagher n 869.9
1.98/2
14/1
—
Stoke City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Ali Al Hamadi n 843.9
2.15/3
0.82/1
D. Mubama n 849.9
1.64/2
1.44/2
M. Manhoef n 871.8
1.35/3
0.63/1
R. Boženík n 868.4
1.35/1
0.73/1
J. Donley n 875.4
1.26/2
0.43/0
Stoke City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Thomas n 873
0.32/0
0.84/1
D. Mubama n 849.9
0.73/0
00/0
M. Manhoef n 871.8
0.52/1
00/0
R. Boženík n 868.4
0.21/0
0.21/0
J. Donley n 875.4
00/0
0.32/0
Stoke City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Donley n 875.4
3.47/7
W. Burger n 882.1
3.27/6
L. Gooch n 872.8
3.26/4
Bae Jun-Ho n 868.8
2.68/4
B. Pearson n 851
2.45/3

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
SouthamptonStoke City
65%Possession35%
2.59Expected goals (xG)1.50
18Shots12
2Shots on target4
10Shots off target4
6Blocked shots4
13Shots inside the box7
7Corners3
2Offsides1
6Fouls12
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards1
2Saves1
457Passes257
87%Pass accuracy74%

Southampton player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Gavin Bazunu9000000006.2
Taylor Harwood-Bellis9010320207.3
J. Stephens9000000006.2
Ryan Fraser9000002007.6
F. Downes9000101006.7
Mateus Fernandes9001102207
Shea Charles7900101206.5
Jay Robinson7900200206.6
Nathan Wood68000002Y6.3
A. Armstrong4500200006.2
Welington2100001106.7
Ryan Manning sub7000005207.9
D. Downs sub4500100006.3
Ross Stewart sub2300100006.3
M. Roerslev sub1200000006.7
Cameron Archer sub1200000006.3

Stoke City player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
V. Johansson90010010Y7.2
J. Tchamadeu90001011Y6.5
Bosun Lawal9000000107
B. Wilmot9000110006.7
A. Cresswell9000001006.3
L. Baker9010110007
S. Thomas9010312007.9
M. Manhoef8100210107.2
T. Seko70000001Y6.5
Bae Jun-Ho7000000306.3
D. Mubama59000002RY6.2
A. Phillips sub2100000006.5
E. Bocat sub2100000006.2
R. Boženík sub1000000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Southampton v Stoke City — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SouthamptonLLWWD
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Stoke CityLDWDW
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 5
Southampton 2 · 1 draw · Stoke City 2 · 2 goals/game
  • 2024-10-29 Southampton 3–2 Stoke City
  • 2024-04-27 Southampton 0–1 Stoke City
  • 2023-10-03 Stoke City 0–1 Southampton
  • 2018-03-03 Southampton 0–0 Stoke City
  • 2017-09-30 Stoke City 2–1 Southampton
League standing · 2025/26
Southampton#4 pos80 pts46 pl+26 GD
Stoke City#17 pos55 pts46 pl-5 GD
Goals per game
Southampton scored1.78
Stoke City scored1.11
Southampton conceded1.22
Stoke City conceded1.22

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1.00 — the full match analysis

£1.00 for 14 days, then £9.99/month. Cancel in the trial and pay nothing more.

Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Southampton v Stoke City?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Southampton v Stoke City was Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Stoke City?
In their last 5 meetings, Southampton won 2, Stoke City won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Southampton and Stoke City?
Recent form — Southampton 2W 1D 2L; Stoke City 2W 2D 1L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all 246 predictions, advanced stats & value against the bookies with ProTry Pro for £1.00 →