Southampton v Wrexham result

Full-time · Southampton 2–1 Wrexham

Championship · Sat, 09 Aug 2025 12:30 BST · St. Mary's Stadium

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Southampton 2–1 Wrexham — Southampton won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.6% of 171 landed (95% range 45.2–60%); it had given them 77.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Southampton beat Wrexham 2–1 at St. Mary's Stadium in the Championship on Saturday 9 August. Wrexham have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Southampton came from behind: Wrexham led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Wrexham: Joshua Windass (22’ pen); Southampton: Ryan Manning (90’) and Jack Stephens (90’, assisted by D. Downs).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Jack Stephens’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Southampton 4.14, Wrexham 1.88, from 27 shots to 10 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Southampton: Flynn Downes (32’) and Cameron Archer (90+8’); Wrexham: Max Cleworth (25’) and James McClean (90+1’).

What it changes

Southampton are first after this result (one league match played).

Wrexham are 24th after this result (one league match played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jack Stephens (Southampton) 7.6, Shea Charles (Southampton) 7.4 and Joshua Windass (Wrexham) 7.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Southampton next travel to West Ham on 24 October 2026.

Wrexham next travel to Blackburn on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Southampton: West Ham v Southampton, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Wrexham: Blackburn v Wrexham, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Southampton 2–1 Wrexham · Championship
Venue: St. Mary's Stadium · Southampton
Referee: J. Bell
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Southampton 0W 1D 4L · Wrexham 3W 2D 0L

Southampton 2–1 Wrexham (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.5 / 1.88

Goals

against 1.88 / 0.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

3.25 / 4.75

Corners

against 8.13 / 5 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 4 matches

2.38 / 4.25

Shots on target

against 6.13 / 1.75 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 4 matches

1.5 / 0.75

Cards

against 0.88 / 1.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 4 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 May 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 May 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Southampton for / against	Line	Wrexham for / against
Goals scored	0.5 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.88 for · 0.5 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.25 for · 8.13 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.75 for · 5 against n 4 Last 5
Shots	8 for · 19 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.75 for · 6.5 against n 4 Last 5
Shots on target	2.38 for · 6.13 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.25 for · 1.75 against n 4 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.63 for · 10 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	9.5 for · 8.25 against n 4 Last 5
Cards shown	1.5 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	0.75 for · 1.5 against n 4 Last 5

Referee: J. Bell.

Southampton

Southampton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Sanda n 8	51.1	2.6 5/4	0.7 2/1	—
K. Sulemana n 8	73.4	2 7/3	0.3 2/0	—
T. Dibling n 8	41.8	1.9 5/1	1.6 5/1	—
Jay Robinson n 4	35.8	1.9 3/0	0.6 1/0	—
P. Onuachu n 8	43.1	1.6 4/2	1 3/1	—

Southampton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
P. Onuachu n 8	43.1	2.1 5/2	1.3 3/2
Ross Stewart n 8	34.4	1.3 2/2	0.7 2/0
K. Sulemana n 8	73.4	0.9 5/1	0.5 3/0
W. Smallbone n 8	36.4	0.9 3/0	0.3 1/0
Mateus Fernandes n 8	85.1	0.7 3/1	0.4 2/1

Southampton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
P. Onuachu n 8	43.1	0.5 2/0	0 0/0
W. Smallbone n 8	36.4	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
Ross Stewart n 8	34.4	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
Mateus Fernandes n 8	85.1	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
K. Sulemana n 8	73.4	0 0/0	0.2 1/0

Southampton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Sanda n 8	51.1	4 6/5
Welington n 8	45	3 6/3
J. Stephens n 8	73.3	2.9 6/3
Mateus Fernandes n 8	85.1	2.6 7/5
W. Smallbone n 8	36.4	2.5 6/2

Wrexham

Wrexham — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Marriott n 8	9.1	3.7 3/0	0 0/0	—
S. Fletcher n 8	24.5	2.3 4/1	1.8 3/1	—
S. Smith n 8	85.9	1.8 6/3	1.6 7/2	—
O. Rathbone n 8	86.5	1.7 6/5	1.2 6/2	—
J. Rodríguez n 8	65.3	1.7 6/2	1.6 5/2	—

Wrexham — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
S. Fletcher n 8	24.5	3.7 5/3	2.8 5/1
S. Smith n 8	85.9	1.8 7/4	1.2 5/3
O. Rathbone n 8	86.5	1.4 5/4	1 4/3
E. Lee n 8	34.6	1.3 3/1	0.3 1/0
J. Rodríguez n 8	65.3	1.2 5/2	0.7 3/1

Wrexham — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Marriott n 8	9.1	1.2 1/0	0 0/0
R. Longman n 8	86.8	0.1 1/0	0.4 3/0
S. Smith n 8	85.9	0.5 3/1	0 0/0
J. McClean n 8	72.1	0.2 1/0	0.3 2/0
J. Rodríguez n 8	65.3	0.3 2/0	0.2 1/0

Wrexham — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
O. Rathbone n 8	86.5	3 7/6
M. Cleworth n 8	90	1.9 7/6
L. Brunt n 8	88.1	1.9 8/4
M. James n 8	90	1.6 7/3
R. Longman n 8	86.8	1.6 6/2

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Southampton		Wrexham
75%	Possession	25%
4.14	Expected goals (xG)	1.88
27	Shots	10
10	Shots on target	2
10	Shots off target	5
7	Blocked shots	3
22	Shots inside the box	6
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
12	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Saves	7
609	Passes	204
87%	Pass accuracy	64%

Southampton player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Gavin Bazunu	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.7
J. Stephens	90	1	0	3	2	1	2	0	7.7
Joshua Quarshie	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
Shea Charles	90	0	0	1	1	4	3	0	7.3
Ryan Fraser	90	0	0	2	1	2	1	0	7.7
Jay Robinson	90	0	0	5	2	2	0	0	7
R. Edwards	80	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	6.7
F. Downes	72	0	0	0	0	2	1	Y	6.6
Welington	72	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	6.9
Y. Sugawara	60	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6.9
A. Armstrong	60	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	6.5
Mateus Fernandes sub	30	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	6.6
D. Downs sub	30	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	6
Ryan Manning sub	18	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	9.3
Cameron Archer sub	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.3
Ross Stewart sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7

Wrexham player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
D. Ward	90	0	0	0	1	0	0	9
M. Cleworth	90	0	0	0	1	1	Y	6.2
C. Coady	90	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.9
L. Brunt	90	0	2	0	0	4	0	6.9
G. Dobson	90	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.7
M. James	90	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.7
L. O'Brien	90	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.9
L. Cacace	85	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.9
R. Barnett	73	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.6
J. Windass	72	1	2	1	1	1	0	7.3
K. Moore	54	0	0	0	2	2	0	7.3
S. Smith sub	36	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.2
R. Hardie sub	18	0	1	1	0	0	0	7.2
R. Longman sub	17	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.5
J. McClean sub	13	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Southampton v Wrexham — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

SouthamptonLLDLL

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

WrexhamDDWWW

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1.6 scored / 0.4 conceded per game

League standing · 2025/26

Southampton#4 pos80 pts46 pl+26 GD

Wrexham#7 pos71 pts46 pl+4 GD

Goals per game

Southampton scored1.78

Wrexham scored1.5

Southampton conceded1.22

Wrexham conceded1.41

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Southampton v Wrexham?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Southampton v Wrexham was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Southampton and Wrexham?: Recent form — Southampton 0W 1D 4L; Wrexham 3W 2D 0L.

Today’s boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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