Stoke City v Derby prediction

Championship · Sat, 16 Jan 2027 15:00 GMT · Bet365 Stadium

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Stoke City · Derby · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for Stoke City v Derby, Championship on Sat, 16 Jan 2027 15:00 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Stoke City host Derby in the Championship on Saturday 16 January (kick-off 15:00 UK).

The key numbers

Stoke City are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Stoke City’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in 10 of Stoke City’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Stoke City have four wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.71 and conceding 0.71. Stoke City have scored 24 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 15 games). Stoke City have conceded 18 goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Derby have one win, two draws and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.71 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 2.14. Derby have scored 14 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 15 games). Derby have conceded 30 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Stoke City (third) and Derby (23rd) are 19 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Stoke City the stronger side, 287 rating points above Derby (Stoke City 1616, Derby 1329, after at least 342 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 17 October 2026, finished Derby 0–1 Stoke City.

Team news

Predicted Stoke City XI (3-4-3): V. Johansson, B. Wilmot, L. Graham, B. Lawal, B. Johnson, E. Soumaré, E. Galbraith, L. Bombino, J. McGlynn, J. Devenny, R. Boženík — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Ethan Galbraith (4.2 per match over 16 appearances, three goals and four assists) and Jack McGlynn (3.9 per match over 11 appearances, five goals and two assists) have been Stoke City’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Stoke City (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Ethan Galbraith averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 1737 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Jack McGlynn averages 2.5 key passes per 90 over 2187 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Derby XI (4-2-3-1): J. Widell Zetterström, R. Nyambe, D. Sanderson, J. Robinson, R. Hedges, B. Clark, D. Ozoh, S. Szmodics, R. Brewster, M. Fuseini, C. Morris — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Bobby Clark (3.8 per match over 16 appearances, three goals and two assists) and Carlton Morris (3.6 per match over 12 appearances, one goal and two assists) have been Derby’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Derby (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bobby Clark averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 1365 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Carlton Morris averages 1.6 shots per 90 over 1037 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 16 Jan 2027 15:00 GMT · Championship · Bet365 Stadium
Head-to-head (last 6): Stoke City 3 · draws 1 · Derby 2 · 2.17 goals/game
Recent form: Stoke City 4W 1D 0L · Derby 1W 1D 3L

Stoke City v Derby (Championship): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 1

Goals

against 0.88 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.88 / 4.5

Corners

against 5.75 / 4.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3.38 / 4.25

Shots on target

against 3.25 / 6.13 · 0 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.13 / 2.25

Cards

against 2.13 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 7 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Stoke City for / against	Line	Derby for / against
Goals scored	1.63 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.88 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.5 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	10.63 for · 13.5 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.25 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.38 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.25 for · 6.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.25 for · 12.5 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.5 for · 8.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.13 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.25 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5

Stoke City

Stoke City Goalkeeper

Stoke City — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
V. Johansson	16	901447 min	472.9 /90	161 /90	00 /90

Stoke City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
V. Johansson n 8	90	2.5 6/3

Stoke City Defensive

Stoke City — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
B. Wilmot	16	881402 min	161 /90	251.6 /90	140.9 /90	613.9 /90	171.1 /90	10.1 /90
Luke Graham	14	911267 min	251.8 /90	181.3 /90	100.7 /90	906.4 /90	151.1 /90	30.2 /90
B. Lawal	8	74593 min	81.2 /90	30.5 /90	00 /90	263.9 /90	101.5 /90	20.3 /90
Bosun Lawal	8	68547 min	71.2 /90	40.7 /90	91.5 /90	264.3 /90	91.5 /90	30.5 /90
M. Talovierov	8	57454 min	40.8 /90	51 /90	30.6 /90	234.6 /90	61.2 /90	10.2 /90
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Stoke City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
V. Johansson n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
B. Wilmot n 8	90	1 6/2	0.6 3/1	—
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 8	75	1.7 6/4	1.7 6/4	—
E. Galbraith n 8	90	0.6 5/0	1.1 5/4	—
Luke Graham n 8	90	1.3 6/3	1.5 5/4	—
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Stoke City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
B. Wilmot n 8	90	0.9 5/1
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 8	75	2.4 6/5
E. Galbraith n 8	90	1.5 7/2
Luke Graham n 8	90	1.8 6/4
Ben Johnson n 8	90	1.3 5/2
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Stoke City Attacking

Stoke City — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
George Hirst	13	44570 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	81.3 /90	30.5 /90	20.3 /90	20.3 /90
J. McGlynn	11	72796 min	50.6 /90	20.2 /90	121.4 /90	80.9 /90	131.5 /90	30.3 /90
R. Boženík	11	44485 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	142.6 /90	40.7 /90	71.3 /90	10.2 /90
J. Devenny	10	70700 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	101.3 /90	50.6 /90	111.4 /90	70.9 /90
L. Cissé	9	56505 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	101.8 /90	20.4 /90	71.2 /90	101.8 /90
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Stoke City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
V. Johansson n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
B. Wilmot n 8	90	1.1 5/4	0.5 4/0
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 8	75	0.9 5/1	0.2 1/0
E. Galbraith n 8	90	1.3 7/3	0.5 4/0
Luke Graham n 8	90	0.6 4/1	0.1 1/0
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Stoke City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
V. Johansson n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
B. Wilmot n 8	90	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 8	75	0 0/0	0 0/0
E. Galbraith n 8	90	0 0/0	0.5 4/0
Luke Graham n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström	12	901085 min	544.5 /90	161.3 /90	00 /90
J. Vickers	4	90360 min	92.3 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90

Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	4.6 7/7
J. Vickers n 8	89.5	2 6/3

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Sanderson	14	821151 min	131 /90	161.3 /90	110.9 /90	554.3 /90	120.9 /90	40.3 /90
S. Langås	10	91905 min	171.7 /90	60.6 /90	50.5 /90	414.1 /90	70.7 /90	40.4 /90
J. Ward	10	80800 min	161.8 /90	171.9 /90	20.2 /90	353.9 /90	50.6 /90	00 /90
C. Taylor	9	86774 min	161.9 /90	80.9 /90	80.9 /90	354.1 /90	101.2 /90	10.1 /90
M. Johnston	8	50396 min	81.8 /90	30.7 /90	20.5 /90	92 /90	40.9 /90	10.2 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.6 4/1	1.4 6/3	—
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.7 4/1	0.1 1/0	—
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0	—
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
C. Morris n 8	84.3	1.9 7/5	0.8 6/0	—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	1.6 6/3
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	1 4/2
S. Szmodics n 8	78	1.6 6/2
C. Morris n 8	84.3	0.8 5/1
A. Mowatt n 8	67.1	1.7 4/3
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. Morris	12	861037 min	10.1 /90	20.2 /90	181.6 /90	70.6 /90	141.2 /90	50.4 /90
R. Brewster	11	44481 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	50.9 /90	20.4 /90	40.7 /90	20.4 /90
H. Meister	9	47426 min	00 /90	00 /90	102.1 /90	30.6 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90
L. Salvesen	7	33230 min	20.8 /90	00 /90	114.3 /90	52 /90	31.2 /90	20.8 /90
B. Clark	16	851365 min	30.2 /90	20.1 /90	211.4 /90	90.6 /90	231.5 /90	181.2 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	1.3 7/2	0.8 4/2
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
S. Szmodics n 8	78	2 6/5	0.9 4/2
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Morris n 8	84.3	1.6 6/3	0.5 4/0
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Morris n 8	84.3	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Stoke City v Derby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Stoke CityWDWWW

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 1.4 scored / 0.4 conceded per game

DerbyLDLLW

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Stoke City 3 · 1 draw · Derby 2 · 2.17 goals/game

2026-10-17 Derby 0–1 Stoke City
2026-04-06 Derby 2–0 Stoke City
2025-08-09 Stoke City 3–1 Derby
2025-05-03 Derby 0–0 Stoke City
2024-11-02 Stoke City 2–1 Derby
2021-12-30 Stoke City 1–2 Derby

League standing · 2026/27

Stoke City#3 pos29 pts15 pl+6 GD

Derby#23 pos10 pts15 pl-16 GD

Goals per game

Stoke City scored1.6

Derby scored0.93

Stoke City conceded1.2

Derby conceded2

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Derby?: In their last 6 meetings, Stoke City won 3, Derby won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Stoke City and Derby?: Recent form — Stoke City 4W 1D 0L; Derby 1W 1D 3L.

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