Atletico-MG v Gremio prediction

Copa Do Brasil · Sat, 07 Nov 2026 21:00 GMT · Arena MRV

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 01:52 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Atletico-MG · Gremio · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Atletico-MG v Gremio, Copa Do Brasil on Sat, 07 Nov 2026 21:00 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Away

Best price: 1.24 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.7% of 5142 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Atletico-MG host Gremio in Copa Do Brasil on Saturday 7 November (kick-off 21:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Atletico-MG or Gremio (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Gremio have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions. Atletico-MG have lost their last five matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Six of Atletico-MG’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in six of Atletico-MG’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). At home, Atletico-MG have six wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.38 points per game, scoring 1.88 and conceding 0.75.

Six of Gremio’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in eight of Gremio’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Gremio have one win, two draws and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.71 points per game, scoring 0.71 and conceding 1.29.

Atletico-MG have failed to score in their last three matches in all competitions. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Gremio the stronger side, 147 rating points above Atletico-MG (Gremio 2050, Atletico-MG 1903, after at least 56 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 1 November 2026, finished Gremio 2–0 Atletico-MG.

Team news

Predicted Atletico-MG XI (4-2-3-1): G. Delfim, R. Lodi, L. Duarte, Vitão, Lyanco, K. Castaño, A. Franco, Bernard, Maycon, Alexsander, C. Soares — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Cuello (4.1 per match over 40 appearances, eight goals and eight assists) and Fred (4.1 per match over 10 appearances, one goal and three assists) have been Atletico-MG’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Atletico-MG (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Cuello averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 2964 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Fred averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 1005 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Gremio XI (4-1-4-1): Weverton, G. Martins, Wallace, W. Kannemann, F. Balbuena, M. Villasanti, E. Noriega, Dodi, J. Pedro, Marlon, C. Vinícius — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Cristian Pavón (4.2 per match over 41 appearances, five goals and five assists) and Marlon (4.0 per match over 20 appearances, two goals and one assist) have been Gremio’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Gremio (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Cristian Pavón averages 1.8 tackles per 90 over 3178 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last 10 appearances. Marlon averages 3.1 tackles per 90 over 1660 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 21:00 GMT · Copa Do Brasil · Arena MRV
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Atletico-MG 2 · draws 0 · Gremio 4 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Atletico-MG 0W 0D 5L · Gremio 3W 0D 2L

Atletico-MG v Gremio (Copa Do Brasil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 6 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 1.25

Goals

against 1.25 / 1.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.75

over 8 matches

6.75 / 5.5

Corners

against 5.63 / 8.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.75 / 4.38

Shots on target

against 4.25 / 6 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.63 / 2.63

Cards

against 2.38 / 2.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Atletico-MG for / against	Line	Gremio for / against
Goals scored	1 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.75our book	1.25 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.75 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.5 for · 8.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	14.75 for · 15.5 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.75 for · 18.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.75 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.38 for · 6 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.25 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	14.25 for · 13.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.63 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.63 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5

Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG Goalkeeper

Atletico-MG — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Everson	36	913290 min	1163.2 /90	371 /90	00 /90
Gabriel Delfim	14	911279 min	473.3 /90	110.8 /90	00 /90

Atletico-MG — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Everson n 8	90.8	3.1 6/4
Gabriel Delfim n 8	90	3.5 6/5

Atletico-MG Defensive

Atletico-MG — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Renan Lodi	42	873672 min	521.3 /90	441.1 /90	150.4 /90	1944.8 /90	561.4 /90	50.1 /90
Natanael	34	782667 min	501.7 /90	311 /90	120.4 /90	1424.8 /90	301 /90	40.1 /90
Ruan Tressoldi	30	852544 min	341.2 /90	331.2 /90	301.1 /90	1254.4 /90	301.1 /90	90.3 /90
Vitor Hugo	26	782035 min	221 /90	221 /90	180.8 /90	883.9 /90	180.8 /90	20.1 /90
Lyanco	19	841604 min	160.9 /90	201.1 /90	171 /90	613.4 /90	211.2 /90	40.2 /90
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Atletico-MG — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Renan Lodi n 8	82.3	1.1 5/2	1.1 6/2	—
Bernard n 8	75.1	0.7 4/1	1.2 7/1	—
Cuello n 8	78.9	0.9 4/2	1.7 7/4	—
Victor Hugo n 8	58.1	0.4 2/0	0.6 2/1	—
Everson n 8	90.8	0.1 1/0	0.4 2/1	—
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Atletico-MG — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Renan Lodi n 8	82.3	1 5/2
Bernard n 8	75.1	0.7 3/2
Cuello n 8	78.9	0.7 4/1
Victor Hugo n 8	58.1	1 4/1
A. Franco n 8	82.4	1.5 5/3
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Atletico-MG Attacking

Atletico-MG — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Minda	32	431380 min	40.3 /90	30.2 /90	322.1 /90	181.2 /90	231.5 /90	352.3 /90
M. Cassierra	30	611836 min	50.2 /90	20.1 /90	281.4 /90	150.7 /90	221.1 /90	60.3 /90
Reinier	29	591697 min	50.3 /90	30.2 /90	281.5 /90	170.9 /90	281.5 /90	170.9 /90
Dudu	22	41891 min	20.2 /90	00 /90	191.9 /90	111.1 /90	151.5 /90	151.5 /90
Hulk	14	70979 min	10.1 /90	30.3 /90	181.7 /90	70.6 /90	181.7 /90	70.6 /90
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Atletico-MG — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Renan Lodi n 8	82.3	1.4 6/3	0.5 4/0
Bernard n 8	75.1	1.9 7/3	1 6/1
Cuello n 8	78.9	2.6 5/5	0.7 3/2
Victor Hugo n 8	58.1	1.9 6/2	0.8 4/0
Everson n 8	90.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Atletico-MG — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Renan Lodi n 8	82.3	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
Bernard n 8	75.1	0.6 4/0	0 0/0
Cuello n 8	78.9	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
Victor Hugo n 8	58.1	0 0/0	0.4 2/0
Everson n 8	90.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Gremio

Gremio Goalkeeper

Gremio — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Weverton	45	924121 min	1433.1 /90	420.9 /90	20 /90
Gabriel Grando	3	94282 min	134.1 /90	51.6 /90	00 /90
Thiago Beltrame	1	7575 min	56 /90	33.6 /90	00 /90

Gremio — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Weverton n 8	90	4.9 8/6

Gremio Defensive

Gremio — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Cristian Pavón	41	783178 min	621.8 /90	471.3 /90	50.1 /90	1744.9 /90	230.7 /90	100.3 /90
Gustavo Martins	33	822716 min	401.3 /90	351.2 /90	160.5 /90	1444.8 /90	331.1 /90	80.3 /90
Pedro Gabriel	22	781709 min	361.9 /90	130.7 /90	50.3 /90	653.4 /90	221.2 /90	70.4 /90
Viery	20	921839 min	391.9 /90	120.6 /90	180.9 /90	1055.1 /90	371.8 /90	60.3 /90
Marlon	20	831660 min	583.1 /90	191 /90	70.4 /90	1035.6 /90	201.1 /90	40.2 /90
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Gremio — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Weverton n 8	90	0 0/0	0.5 2/2	—
Carlos Vinícius n 8	78.8	1.4 8/1	1.1 4/4	—
F. Amuzu n 8	72.5	1.2 5/3	2.8 8/4	—
Cristian Pavón n 8	71.8	0.9 5/1	0.9 3/2	—
José Enamorado n 8	41.1	1.1 3/1	3.3 7/3	—
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Gremio — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Carlos Vinícius n 8	78.8	0.4 2/1
F. Amuzu n 8	72.5	0.2 1/0
Cristian Pavón n 8	71.8	1.1 4/2
José Enamorado n 8	41.1	0.5 2/0
Erick Noriega n 8	77.4	1.7 6/4
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Gremio Attacking

Gremio — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Carlos Vinícius	42	793304 min	170.5 /90	10 /90	631.7 /90	411.1 /90	120.3 /90	90.2 /90
José Enamorado	38	481808 min	00 /90	40.2 /90	291.4 /90	110.5 /90	251.2 /90	351.7 /90
Tetê	34	511730 min	30.2 /90	10.1 /90	422.2 /90	201 /90	331.7 /90	422.2 /90
Martin Braithwaite	32	481547 min	40.2 /90	10.1 /90	271.6 /90	120.7 /90	150.9 /90	70.4 /90
Gabriel Mec	26	501307 min	30.2 /90	10.1 /90	221.5 /90	90.6 /90	171.2 /90	433 /90
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Gremio — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Weverton n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Carlos Vinícius n 8	78.8	1.4 6/2	0.7 5/0
F. Amuzu n 8	72.5	2 7/3	0.8 4/1
Cristian Pavón n 8	71.8	1.7 6/3	1.1 4/2
José Enamorado n 8	41.1	1.9 3/2	0.8 2/1
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Gremio — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Weverton n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
Carlos Vinícius n 8	78.8	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
F. Amuzu n 8	72.5	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
Cristian Pavón n 8	71.8	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
José Enamorado n 8	41.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Atletico-MG v Gremio — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Atletico-MGLLLLL

Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · 0.4 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

GremioLWWWL

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Atletico-MG 2 · 0 draws · Gremio 4 · 3 goals/game

2026-11-01 Gremio 2–0 Atletico-MG
2026-08-16 Atletico-MG 3–0 Gremio
2026-02-26 Gremio 2–1 Atletico-MG
2025-08-17 Atletico-MG 1–3 Gremio
2025-03-29 Gremio 2–1 Atletico-MG
2024-10-09 Atletico-MG 2–1 Gremio

Goals per game

Atletico-MG scored0.4

Gremio scored1.6

Atletico-MG conceded1.8

Gremio conceded1.4

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Atletico-MG v Gremio?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Atletico-MG v Gremio is Home or Away (best price 1.24 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Gremio?: In their last 6 meetings, Atletico-MG won 2, Gremio won 4 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Atletico-MG and Gremio?: Recent form — Atletico-MG 0W 0D 5L; Gremio 3W 0D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 6 Nov 2026, 01:52 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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