Gremio v Atletico-MG prediction

Copa Do Brasil · Sun, 01 Nov 2026 21:30 GMT

Updated 29 Oct 2026, 01:03 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Gremio · Atletico-MG · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Gremio v Atletico-MG, Copa Do Brasil on Sun, 01 Nov 2026 21:30 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.4% of 4833 landed (95% range 76.2–78.5%); it had given them 74.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Gremio host Atletico-MG in Copa Do Brasil on Sunday 1 November (kick-off 21:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Gremio or Atletico-MG (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

Form and the table

Seven of Gremio’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Gremio’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Gremio have four wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.75 points per game, scoring 1.63 and conceding 1.25.

Eight of Atletico-MG’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Atletico-MG’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Atletico-MG have no wins, two draws and four defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 0.33 points per game, scoring 0.83 and conceding 2.00.

TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Atletico-MG the stronger side, 26 rating points above Gremio (Atletico-MG 1989, Gremio 1963, after at least 55 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 16 August 2026, finished Atletico-MG 3–0 Gremio.

Team news

Predicted Gremio XI (4-1-4-1): Weverton, Wallace, G. Martins, W. Kannemann, D. Caito, M. Villasanti, E. Noriega, F. Krovinović, D. Barbosa, F. Amuzu, C. Vinícius — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Cristian Pavón (4.2 per match over 41 appearances, five goals and five assists) and Marlon (3.8 per match over 18 appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Gremio’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Gremio (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Cristian Pavón averages 1.8 tackles per 90 over 3178 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last 10 appearances. Marlon averages 3.3 tackles per 90 over 1525 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Atletico-MG XI (4-2-3-1): G. Delfim, R. Lodi, Natanael, Lyanco, Vitão, Maycon, Bernard, K. Castaño, Cuello, V. Hugo, Reinier — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Cuello (4.2 per match over 39 appearances, eight goals and eight assists) and Fred (4.1 per match over 10 appearances, one goal and three assists) have been Atletico-MG’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Atletico-MG (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Cuello averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 2874 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Fred averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 1005 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 01 Nov 2026 21:30 GMT · Copa Do Brasil
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Gremio 3 · draws 0 · Atletico-MG 3 · 3.5 goals/game
Recent form: Gremio 1W 3D 1L · Atletico-MG 3W 0D 2L

Gremio v Atletico-MG (Copa Do Brasil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 1.5

Goals

against 1.5 / 1.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 2

over 8 matches

4.63 / 5.88

Corners

against 6.38 / 7.13 · 5 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.63 / 6.5

Shots on target

against 6.25 / 5.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.88 / 1.88

Cards

against 2.63 / 1.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 26 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 26 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Gremio for / against	Line	Atletico-MG for / against
Goals scored	1 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	2our book	1.5 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.63 for · 6.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.88 for · 7.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.5 for · 17.5 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	14.63 for · 18.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.63 for · 6.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	6.5 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	15 for · 14.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.25 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.88 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.88 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5

Gremio

Gremio Goalkeeper

Gremio — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Weverton	43	923941 min	1353.1 /90	421 /90	20 /90
Gabriel Grando	2	96192 min	73.3 /90	20.9 /90	00 /90
Thiago Beltrame	1	7575 min	56 /90	33.6 /90	00 /90

Gremio — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Weverton n 8	90	4.9 8/6

Gremio Defensive

Gremio — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Cristian Pavón	41	783178 min	621.8 /90	471.3 /90	50.1 /90	1755 /90	230.7 /90	100.3 /90
Gustavo Martins	30	822446 min	381.4 /90	351.3 /90	150.6 /90	1395.1 /90	281 /90	80.3 /90
Pedro Gabriel	21	791664 min	331.8 /90	130.7 /90	50.3 /90	623.4 /90	221.2 /90	70.4 /90
Viery	20	921839 min	391.9 /90	120.6 /90	180.9 /90	1055.1 /90	371.8 /90	60.3 /90
Marlon	18	851525 min	563.3 /90	150.9 /90	70.4 /90	985.8 /90	201.2 /90	40.2 /90
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Gremio — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Weverton n 8	90	0 0/0	0.6 3/2	—
Cristian Pavón n 8	71.8	0.9 5/1	0.9 3/2	—
Carlos Vinícius n 8	82.6	1.1 6/1	1.2 5/3	—
F. Amuzu n 8	71.4	1.1 4/3	2.7 7/4	—
José Enamorado n 8	31.1	0.7 2/0	5.1 7/4	—
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Gremio — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Cristian Pavón n 8	71.8	1.1 4/2
Carlos Vinícius n 8	82.6	0 0/0
F. Amuzu n 8	71.4	0.2 1/0
José Enamorado n 8	31.1	1.1 3/0
Erick Noriega n 8	73.3	1.5 5/3
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Gremio Attacking

Gremio — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Carlos Vinícius	40	793167 min	160.5 /90	10 /90	601.7 /90	391.1 /90	90.3 /90	70.2 /90
José Enamorado	35	471636 min	00 /90	40.2 /90	281.5 /90	100.6 /90	261.4 /90	351.9 /90
Tetê	31	531632 min	30.2 /90	10.1 /90	422.3 /90	201.1 /90	321.8 /90	412.3 /90
Martin Braithwaite	29	491418 min	40.3 /90	10.1 /90	251.6 /90	100.6 /90	151 /90	60.4 /90
Gabriel Mec	26	501307 min	30.2 /90	10.1 /90	221.5 /90	90.6 /90	171.2 /90	433 /90
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Gremio — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Weverton n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Cristian Pavón n 8	71.8	1.7 6/3	1.1 4/2
Carlos Vinícius n 8	82.6	1.2 6/2	0.5 4/0
F. Amuzu n 8	71.4	1.9 6/2	0.5 2/1
José Enamorado n 8	31.1	2.9 4/2	0.7 1/1
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Gremio — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Weverton n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Cristian Pavón n 8	71.8	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
Carlos Vinícius n 8	82.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
F. Amuzu n 8	71.4	0 0/0	0.5 2/1
José Enamorado n 8	31.1	0 0/0	0.4 1/0
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Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG Goalkeeper

Atletico-MG — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Everson	35	913200 min	1143.2 /90	361 /90	00 /90
Gabriel Delfim	12	921099 min	433.5 /90	70.6 /90	00 /90

Atletico-MG — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Everson n 8	91.5	3.2 6/5
Gabriel Delfim n 8	90.8	3.8 6/5

Atletico-MG Defensive

Atletico-MG — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Renan Lodi	40	873492 min	491.3 /90	431.1 /90	130.3 /90	1844.7 /90	541.4 /90	50.1 /90
Natanael	32	812598 min	481.7 /90	301 /90	100.3 /90	1374.7 /90	281 /90	30.1 /90
Ruan Tressoldi	30	852544 min	341.2 /90	331.2 /90	301.1 /90	1254.4 /90	301.1 /90	90.3 /90
Vitor Hugo	25	781945 min	221 /90	211 /90	170.8 /90	823.8 /90	180.8 /90	20.1 /90
Lyanco	17	861469 min	161 /90	181.1 /90	140.9 /90	593.6 /90	201.2 /90	40.2 /90
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Atletico-MG — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Renan Lodi n 8	75.8	1 4/2	1 6/1	—
Bernard n 8	77.3	1 5/2	1 7/0	—
Cuello n 8	79.8	1.1 4/3	1.4 7/3	—
Victor Hugo n 8	49.3	0.7 3/0	0.7 2/1	—
Everson n 8	91.5	0.1 1/0	0.4 2/1	—
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Atletico-MG — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Renan Lodi n 8	75.8	1.3 4/2
Bernard n 8	77.3	1.2 5/3
Cuello n 8	79.8	0.7 4/1
Victor Hugo n 8	49.3	1.6 5/2
A. Franco n 8	80.1	1.8 5/4
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Atletico-MG Attacking

Atletico-MG — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
M. Cassierra	30	611836 min	50.2 /90	20.1 /90	281.4 /90	150.7 /90	221.1 /90	60.3 /90
A. Minda	30	431290 min	40.3 /90	30.2 /90	302.1 /90	171.2 /90	221.5 /90	332.3 /90
Reinier	28	581630 min	50.3 /90	30.2 /90	271.5 /90	170.9 /90	281.5 /90	170.9 /90
Dudu	21	38801 min	20.2 /90	00 /90	161.8 /90	101.1 /90	131.5 /90	151.7 /90
Hulk	14	70979 min	10.1 /90	30.3 /90	181.7 /90	70.6 /90	181.7 /90	70.6 /90
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Atletico-MG — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Renan Lodi n 8	75.8	1.3 5/3	0.6 4/0
Bernard n 8	77.3	1.5 6/2	0.9 5/1
Cuello n 8	79.8	2.1 4/4	0.7 3/2
Victor Hugo n 8	49.3	2.3 6/2	0.9 4/0
Everson n 8	91.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Atletico-MG — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Renan Lodi n 8	75.8	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
Bernard n 8	77.3	0.6 4/0	0 0/0
Cuello n 8	79.8	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
Victor Hugo n 8	49.3	0 0/0	0.5 2/0
Everson n 8	91.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Gremio v Atletico-MG — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

GremioDDDLW

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Atletico-MGWWWLL

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Gremio 3 · 0 draws · Atletico-MG 3 · 3.5 goals/game

2026-08-16 Atletico-MG 3–0 Gremio
2026-02-26 Gremio 2–1 Atletico-MG
2025-08-17 Atletico-MG 1–3 Gremio
2025-03-29 Gremio 2–1 Atletico-MG
2024-10-09 Atletico-MG 2–1 Gremio
2024-09-01 Gremio 2–3 Atletico-MG

Goals per game

Gremio scored1

Atletico-MG scored1.6

Gremio conceded1.2

Atletico-MG conceded1.2

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Gremio v Atletico-MG?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Gremio v Atletico-MG is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Atletico-MG?: In their last 6 meetings, Gremio won 3, Atletico-MG won 3 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Gremio and Atletico-MG?: Recent form — Gremio 1W 3D 1L; Atletico-MG 3W 0D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 29 Oct 2026, 01:03 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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