Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin prediction

Ekstraklasa · · Motor Lublin Arena

Updated · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin, Ekstraklasa on Fri, 23 Oct 2026 17:00 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 643 landed (95% range 61.9–69.2%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Motor Lublin host Zaglebie Lubin in the Ekstraklasa on Friday 23 October (kick-off 17:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

Form and the table

10 of Motor Lublin’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in nine of Motor Lublin’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Motor Lublin have two wins, two draws and four defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.63. Motor Lublin have scored 15 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Motor Lublin have conceded 19 goals, the fifth-most of the 18 clubs.

Six of Zaglebie Lubin’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in seven of Zaglebie Lubin’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have two wins, two draws and three defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.14 points per game, scoring 1.14 and conceding 1.43. Zaglebie Lubin have scored 12 goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Zaglebie Lubin have conceded 13 goals, the sixth-fewest of the 18 clubs.

Motor Lublin are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Motor Lublin (12th) and Zaglebie Lubin (ninth) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Motor Lublin the stronger side, 69 rating points above Zaglebie Lubin (Motor Lublin 1508, Zaglebie Lubin 1439, after at least 79 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Motor Lublin are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Zaglebie Lubin, every meeting checked. The most recent meeting, on 20 March 2026, finished Motor Lublin 1–0 Zaglebie Lubin.

Team news

Predicted Motor Lublin XI (4-1-4-1): G. Tratnik, F. Luberecki, B. Bereszyński, M. Bartoš, K. Lukoszek, M. Ndiaye, Kikis, Y. Bourhane, I. Rodrigues, M. Łęgowski, K. Czubak — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, K. Czubak (5.1 per match over 11 appearances, six goals) and M. Ndiaye (3.9 per match over 11 appearances, two goals and three assists) have been Motor Lublin’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Motor Lublin (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), K. Czubak averages 3.5 shots per 90 over 989 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. M. Ndiaye averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 949 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Zaglebie Lubin XI (5-4-1): Z. Alomerovic, A. Ławniczak, R. Yakuba, M. Nalepa, D. Michalski, I. Orlikowski, F. Kocaba, D. Dąbrowski, S. Kerk, J. Kolan, M. Reguła — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, M. Reguła (4.2 per match over 10 appearances, two goals) and J. Ćorluka (3.8 per match over seven appearances, one goal and two assists) have been Zaglebie Lubin’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Zaglebie Lubin (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), M. Reguła averages 2.5 shots per 90 over 937 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. J. Ćorluka averages 2.5 tackles per 90 over 460 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last seven appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Ekstraklasa · Motor Lublin Arena
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 4): Motor Lublin 3 · draws 1 · Zaglebie Lubin 0 · 2.25 goals/game
  • Recent form: Motor Lublin 2W 1D 2L · Zaglebie Lubin 2W 1D 2L

Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin (Ekstraklasa): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.38 / 1.13
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.75 / 3.63
Corners
against 3.38 / 5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.5 / 4.75
Shots on target
against 3.88 / 4.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 3
Cards
against 2.5 / 2.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameMotor Lublin for / againstLineZaglebie Lubin for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.5standard
1.13 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.75 for · 3.38 against n 8
9.5standard
3.63 for · 5 against n 8
Shots
16.88 for · 11.38 against n 8
19.5standard
13.75 for · 14.75 against n 8
Shots on target
5.5 for · 3.88 against n 8
8.5standard
4.75 for · 4.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.88 for · 13.38 against n 8
21.5standard
13.63 for · 13.25 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 2.5 against n 8
3.5standard
3 for · 2.25 against n 8
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Ndiaye n 885.8
2.48/7
27/5
—
M. Bartoš n 872.6
2.37/4
0.94/2
—
Ivo Rodrigues n 876.9
1.97/5
3.17/6
—
K. Czubak n 889.9
1.87/5
0.94/2
—
M. Aïko n 849.1
1.65/2
2.16/1
—
Motor Lublin — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
K. Czubak n 889.9
3.68/8
1.86/5
Kikis n 866.5
2.53/3
1.53/3
Rony Lopes n 864
2.37/3
0.74/0
M. Ndiaye n 885.8
2.16/3
0.53/1
Lucas Pasquoto n 832.3
2.12/2
0.31/0
Motor Lublin — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
K. Czubak n 889.9
0.64/1
00/0
Ivo Rodrigues n 876.9
00/0
0.64/0
M. Ndiaye n 885.8
0.11/0
0.32/0
Rony Lopes n 864
0.42/0
00/0
Kamil Lukoszek n 858.4
0.21/0
0.21/0
Motor Lublin — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
F. Luberecki n 889.6
3.48/6
T. Santos n 860.4
3.46/4
Tin Plavotić n 859.1
2.54/4
Paskal Konrad Meyer n 832.9
2.46/1
Y. Bourhane n 880.5
2.27/5
Motor Lublin — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Tratnik n 890
3.16/5
Mihai Popa n 590
24/1
Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Reguła n 873.3
2.95/5
2.97/5
—
J. Sypek n 842.8
2.47/2
1.34/1
—
J. Kolan n 843.3
2.38/1
2.16/1
—
M. Kosidis n 833.6
2.35/2
2.36/1
—
J. Ćorluka n 868
27/3
0.53/0
—
Zaglebie Lubin — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Kosidis n 833.6
2.77/1
1.75/0
M. Reguła n 873.3
2.67/6
1.45/3
L. Szabó n 846.8
1.95/2
13/1
J. Sypek n 842.8
1.84/2
0.82/1
A. Ławniczak n 889
1.66/3
0.64/1
Zaglebie Lubin — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
L. Szabó n 846.8
0.52/0
0.21/0
J. Sypek n 842.8
0.31/0
0.31/0
J. Ćorluka n 868
0.21/0
0.32/0
I. Orlikowski n 854.9
00/0
0.42/0
K. Nowogoński n 541
0.41/0
00/0
Zaglebie Lubin — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Szymon Łyczko n 424.5
3.73/1
K. Nowogoński n 541
2.64/2
M. Reguła n 873.3
2.56/4
J. Ćorluka n 868
2.36/4
S. Kerk n 844.3
2.35/2
Zaglebie Lubin — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Z. Alomerovic n 890
36/5

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Motor LublinLLDWW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.8 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Zaglebie LubinDWWLL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 4
Motor Lublin 3 · 1 draw · Zaglebie Lubin 0 · 2.25 goals/game
  • 2026-03-20 Motor Lublin 1–0 Zaglebie Lubin
  • 2025-09-21 Zaglebie Lubin 2–2 Motor Lublin
  • 2025-05-18 Motor Lublin 1–0 Zaglebie Lubin
  • 2024-11-22 Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Motor Lublin
League standing · 2026/27
Motor Lublin#12 pos12 pts11 pl-4 GD
Zaglebie Lubin#9 pos15 pts10 pl-1 GD
Goals per game
Motor Lublin scored1.36
Zaglebie Lubin scored1.2
Motor Lublin conceded1.73
Zaglebie Lubin conceded1.3

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin?
In their last 4 meetings, Motor Lublin won 3, Zaglebie Lubin won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.25 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Recent form — Motor Lublin 2W 1D 2L; Zaglebie Lubin 2W 1D 2L.

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