Lillestrom v Aalesund prediction

Eliteserien · Sun, 08 Nov 2026 16:00 GMT · Åråsen Stadion

Updated 7 Nov 2026, 12:08 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lillestrom · Aalesund · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Lillestrom v Aalesund, Eliteserien on Sun, 08 Nov 2026 16:00 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.37 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.3% of 515 landed (95% range 64.2–72.2%); it had given them 75.8% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 546 of 850 times (64.2%), against an average rating of 67.6%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Lillestrom host Aalesund in the Eliteserien on Sunday 8 November (kick-off 16:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Aalesund have conceded 57 goals, the most of the 16 clubs (2026 so far, after 25 games). Both teams scored in 13 of Aalesund’s last 15 results in all competitions (87%).

Aalesund have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Lillestrom’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Lillestrom’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Lillestrom have four wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 1.44 points per game, scoring 1.44 and conceding 2.11. Lillestrom have scored 36 goals, the eighth-fewest of the 16 clubs (2026 so far, after 25 games). Lillestrom have conceded 33 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 16 clubs.

11 of Aalesund’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Away from home, Aalesund have three wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.25 points per game, scoring 1.63 and conceding 1.88. Aalesund have scored 43 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 16 clubs (2026 so far, after 25 games).

Lillestrom (fifth) and Aalesund (14th) are 18 points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Lillestrom the stronger side, 254 rating points above Aalesund (Lillestrom 1713, Aalesund 1459, after at least 147 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Lillestrom are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Aalesund. The most recent meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Aalesund 1–3 Lillestrom.

Team news

Predicted Lillestrom XI (4-1-4-1): P. Dahlberg, R. Gabrielsen, Y. Paintsil, L. Ranger, S. Kristiansen, F. Ottosson, G. Nyheim, Y. Ibrahimaj, G. Nordh, D. Bassi, F. Vá — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Felix Vá (5.2 per match over 29 appearances, eight goals and six assists) and Lars Ranger (4.6 per match over 26 appearances, two goals and two assists) have been Lillestrom’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Lillestrom (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Felix Vá averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 2402 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Lars Ranger averages 3.5 tackles per 90 over 2105 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Aalesund XI (5-3-2): L. Podlech, K. Nessø, C. Diop, U. Charles, M. Andresen, Ó. Guðmundsson, E. Hagen, M. Christensen, S. Kartum, I. Skotheim, H. M. Reed — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Mathias Christensen (6.1 per match over 24 appearances, 11 goals and five assists) and Uba Charles (5.3 per match over 24 appearances, two goals and four assists) have been Aalesund’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Aalesund (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Mathias Christensen averages 2.4 key passes per 90 over 2002 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Uba Charles averages 2.9 tackles per 90 over 1889 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 16:00 GMT · Eliteserien · Åråsen Stadion
Referee: Stian Rovig Sletner
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Lillestrom 4 · draws 1 · Aalesund 1 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Lillestrom 3W 0D 2L · Aalesund 2W 0D 3L

Lillestrom v Aalesund (Eliteserien): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 7 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 2.13

Goals

against 1.63 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.75

over 8 matches

3.57 / 6.29

Corners

against 5.43 / 8.43 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

4.29 / 6.14

Shots on target

against 7.29 / 6.29 · 3 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.57 / 2.86

Cards

against 2.14 / 1.71 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Lillestrom for / against	Line	Aalesund for / against
Goals scored	1.38 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.75our book	2.13 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.57 for · 5.43 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	6.29 for · 8.43 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	13.71 for · 17.43 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	17 for · 18.71 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	4.29 for · 7.29 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	6.14 for · 6.29 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	9.43 for · 10.71 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	13.29 for · 12 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	1.57 for · 2.14 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	2.86 for · 1.71 against n 7 Last 5

Referee: Stian Rovig Sletner.

Lillestrom

Lillestrom Goalkeeper

Lillestrom — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Pontus Dahlberg	27	902430 min	1154.3 /90	261 /90	00 /90
Stephan Hagerup	2	90180 min	21 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Lillestrom — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lillestrom before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Pontus Dahlberg n 8	90	5.4 7/6

Lillestrom Defensive

Lillestrom — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Lars Ranger	26	812105 min	833.5 /90	220.9 /90	90.4 /90	1837.8 /90	311.3 /90	30.1 /90
Ruben Gabrielsen	24	902160 min	261.1 /90	321.3 /90	140.6 /90	843.5 /90	110.5 /90	30.1 /90
Yaw Paintsil	19	671279 min	221.5 /90	171.2 /90	00 /90	735.1 /90	120.8 /90	10.1 /90
Frederik Elkær	16	701126 min	252 /90	80.6 /90	20.2 /90	453.6 /90	131 /90	30.2 /90
Sturla Ottesen	16	701125 min	221.8 /90	181.4 /90	60.5 /90	625 /90	121 /90	00 /90
See more players · Pro Try Pro for £1, then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Lillestrom — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lillestrom before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Felix Vá n 8	85.3	1.1 4/2	2.1 7/5	—
Pontus Dahlberg n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.5 3/1	—
Ylldren Ibrahimaj n 8	82.8	0.3 2/0	0.7 4/1	—
Lars Ranger n 8	69.3	1.8 7/3	2.4 6/4	—
Ruben Gabrielsen n 8	90	0.8 4/2	0.5 4/0	—
See more players · Pro

Lillestrom — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lillestrom before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Felix Vá n 8	85.3	2.9 8/6
Ylldren Ibrahimaj n 8	82.8	1.2 5/2
Lars Ranger n 8	69.3	3.2 7/6
Ruben Gabrielsen n 8	90	1.8 8/4
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim n 8	78.3	2.6 7/4
See more players · Pro

Lillestrom Attacking

Lillestrom — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
T. Lehne Olsen	22	641409 min	80.5 /90	10.1 /90	473 /90	201.3 /90	140.9 /90	60.4 /90
F. Gulbrandsen	15	46689 min	30.4 /90	10.1 /90	162.1 /90	91.2 /90	60.8 /90	40.5 /90
Kparobo Arierhi	5	42209 min	00 /90	00 /90	62.6 /90	20.9 /90	00 /90	20.9 /90
G. Nordh	5	25127 min	00 /90	10.7 /90	21.4 /90	00 /90	42.8 /90	21.4 /90
Felix Vá	29	832402 min	80.3 /90	60.2 /90	371.4 /90	170.6 /90	481.8 /90	371.4 /90
See more players · Pro

Lillestrom — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lillestrom before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Felix Vá n 8	85.3	1.7 7/4	0.8 3/2
Pontus Dahlberg n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Ylldren Ibrahimaj n 8	82.8	1.4 6/4	0.3 2/0
Lars Ranger n 8	69.3	2.1 4/4	0 0/0
Ruben Gabrielsen n 8	90	0.6 4/1	0 0/0
See more players · Pro

Lillestrom — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lillestrom before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Felix Vá n 8	85.3	0.4 2/1	0 0/0
Pontus Dahlberg n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Ylldren Ibrahimaj n 8	82.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
Lars Ranger n 8	69.3	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Ruben Gabrielsen n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
See more players · Pro

Aalesund

Aalesund Goalkeeper

Aalesund — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Luca Podlech	12	871046 min	453.9 /90	161.4 /90	10.1 /90
Kristoffer Klaesson	11	90990 min	413.7 /90	201.8 /90	10.1 /90
Tor Erik Larsen	3	71214 min	145.9 /90	83.4 /90	00 /90

Aalesund — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aalesund before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Luca Podlech n 8	85.8	3.7 8/5
Kristoffer Klaesson n 8	90	4 8/7

Aalesund Defensive

Aalesund — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Uba Charles	24	791889 min	612.9 /90	180.9 /90	60.3 /90	1617.7 /90	281.3 /90	10 /90
K. Nessø	24	631509 min	241.4 /90	140.8 /90	60.4 /90	714.2 /90	120.7 /90	00 /90
Ólafur Guðmundsson	20	801595 min	352 /90	211.2 /90	80.5 /90	814.6 /90	211.2 /90	40.2 /90
Marius Andresen	16	671074 min	292.4 /90	171.4 /90	40.3 /90	968 /90	231.9 /90	50.4 /90
Aleksander Kjelsen	15	811210 min	171.3 /90	171.3 /90	141 /90	554.1 /90	151.1 /90	30.2 /90
See more players · Pro

Aalesund — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aalesund before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Mathias Christensen n 8	90	2.3 8/5	0.5 3/1	—
Uba Charles n 8	83.3	0.9 4/2	0.8 4/2	—
K. Nessø n 8	86.6	0.5 3/1	1.6 8/4	—
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen n 8	90	0.3 2/0	0.5 3/1	—
Ólafur Guðmundsson n 8	81.1	1.2 6/3	0.3 2/0	—
See more players · Pro

Aalesund — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aalesund before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Mathias Christensen n 8	90	1 5/2
Uba Charles n 8	83.3	3.1 8/6
K. Nessø n 8	86.6	1.4 6/3
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen n 8	90	1.3 7/2
Ólafur Guðmundsson n 8	81.1	1.5 5/3
See more players · Pro

Aalesund Attacking

Aalesund — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Kristian Lonebu	16	801272 min	50.4 /90	10.1 /90	251.8 /90	181.3 /90	161.1 /90	100.7 /90
H. M. Reed	13	73948 min	60.6 /90	40.4 /90	323 /90	151.4 /90	201.9 /90	90.9 /90
Elias Heggland Myrlid	8	26204 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	41.8 /90	10.4 /90	31.3 /90	10.4 /90
I. Skotheim	7	67466 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	152.9 /90	61.2 /90	40.8 /90	30.6 /90
Ivan Djantou	4	44174 min	00 /90	10.5 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90	31.6 /90	10.5 /90
See more players · Pro

Aalesund — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aalesund before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Mathias Christensen n 8	90	2.4 8/5	1.5 6/3
Uba Charles n 8	83.3	1.6 5/4	1.1 5/3
K. Nessø n 8	86.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen n 8	90	1.9 8/4	0.6 4/1
Ólafur Guðmundsson n 8	81.1	0.6 4/0	0 0/0
See more players · Pro

Aalesund — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aalesund before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Mathias Christensen n 8	90	0.6 5/0	0.4 2/1
Uba Charles n 8	83.3	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
K. Nessø n 8	86.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen n 8	90	0.4 2/1	0 0/0
Ólafur Guðmundsson n 8	81.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
See more players · Pro

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Lillestrom v Aalesund — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

LillestromLWWWL

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.2 scored / 2 conceded per game

AalesundLWLWL

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 2.4 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Lillestrom 4 · 1 draw · Aalesund 1 · 3 goals/game

2026-03-15 Aalesund 1–3 Lillestrom
2023-09-03 Aalesund 1–1 Lillestrom
2023-07-19 Lillestrom 5–1 Aalesund
2022-11-06 Aalesund 2–1 Lillestrom
2022-06-29 Lillestrom 1–0 Aalesund
2022-04-28 Lillestrom 2–0 Aalesund

League standing · 2026

Lillestrom#5 pos42 pts25 pl+3 GD

Aalesund#14 pos24 pts25 pl-14 GD

Goals per game

Lillestrom scored1.44

Aalesund scored1.72

Lillestrom conceded1.32

Aalesund conceded2.28

See the full prediction

Pro members unlock all 246 markets for this match — result, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and player props — plus advanced & key match statistics, expected goals and value against the bookmakers.

Expected goals (xG)

Pro

Win probability & value

Pro

Try Pro for £1

then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Lillestrom v Aalesund?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Lillestrom v Aalesund is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.37 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Aalesund?: In their last 6 meetings, Lillestrom won 4, Aalesund won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lillestrom and Aalesund?: Recent form — Lillestrom 3W 0D 2L; Aalesund 2W 0D 3L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 7 Nov 2026, 12:08 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.