Ajax v NEC Nijmegen result

Full-time · Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen

Eredivisie · Sat, 10 Oct 2026 20:00 BST · Johan Cruijff Arena

Updated 19 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Ajax · NEC Nijmegen · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen — this Eredivisie match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.26 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.7% of 641 landed (95% range 61.9–69.3%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 404 of 616 times (65.6%), against an average rating of 68.6%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Ajax and NEC Nijmegen drew 1–1 at Johan Cruijff Arena in the Eredivisie on Saturday 10 October. Ajax have scored in 13 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Ajax: Toluwalase Arokodare (7’, assisted by Jorthy Mokio); NEC Nijmegen: Tjaronn Chery (19’ pen).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Tjaronn Chery’s goal on 19 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Ajax out-shot NEC Nijmegen 18 to 8 and created the better chances, 1.78 xG to 1.05 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

Discipline

Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands showed four yellow cards — against 2.9 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Ajax: Jorthy Mokio (17’) and A. Ouazane (67’); NEC Nijmegen: Bryan Linssen (33’) and Gabriel Brás (54’).

What it changes

Ajax move down from fourth to fifth (eight league matches played).

NEC Nijmegen stay 11th after this result (eight league matches played).

Ajax are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. NEC Nijmegen are winless in their last six matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Noé Lebreton (NEC Nijmegen) 7.8, Toluwalase Arokodare (Ajax) 6.0 and Tjaronn Chery (NEC Nijmegen) 5.9 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Ajax next host Atalanta on 22 October 2026.

NEC Nijmegen next travel to Dinamo Zagreb on 22 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Ajax: Ajax v Atalanta, Thursday 22 October — the preview. Next for NEC Nijmegen: Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen, Thursday 22 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena · Amsterdam
Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Ajax 2 · draws 3 · NEC Nijmegen 1 · 3.17 goals/game
Recent form: Ajax 3W 1D 1L · NEC Nijmegen 0W 2D 3L

Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

3.5 / 1

Goals

against 1.75 / 2.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 4

over 8 matches

7.25 / 3.75

Corners

against 2.5 / 3.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

9.13 / 3.25

Shots on target

against 4.38 / 5.75 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2 / 1.88

Cards

against 1.63 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

2.9 yellows

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands

1.7 home / 1.2 away

over 10 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 September 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Ajax for / against	Line	NEC Nijmegen for / against
Goals scored	3.5 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	4our book	1 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	7.25 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.75 for · 3.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	24.5 for · 10.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.75 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	9.13 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.25 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	8.25 for · 8.5 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11 for · 12.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.88 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands — 2.9 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 23.2 fouls over 10 matches (1.7 to the home side, 1.2 to the away side).

Home 1.7Away 1.2

Ajax

Ajax — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
O. Wijndal n 8	57.1	2.2 6/2	1 4/1	—
J. Mokio n 8	64.5	1.9 6/3	0.7 3/1	T. Storm
A. Gaaei n 8	79.5	1.7 5/3	0.6 3/1	—
S. Amrabat n 8	45.5	1.7 5/1	0.7 3/0	T. Storm
V. Tsygankov n 8	53.3	1.3 4/2	1.3 3/3	—

Ajax — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
T. Arokodare n 8	46.4	5.8 7/6	2.4 6/3
Marcos Leonardo n 8	37.1	4.2 5/4	1.8 4/2
K. Dolberg n 8	56.4	3.2 7/5	1.4 5/2
A. Ouazane n 8	38.1	3.2 7/4	1.5 5/0
S. Berghuis n 8	67.6	3 8/7	1.5 7/2

Ajax — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
T. Arokodare n 8	46.4	1.5 5/1	0.2 1/0
K. Dolberg n 8	56.4	0.6 3/0	0.6 2/1
D. Klaassen n 8	63.5	0.9 5/0	0 0/0
A. Ouazane n 8	38.1	0.3 1/0	0.6 1/1
O. Gloukh n 8	66.5	0.2 1/0	0.5 3/0

Ajax — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Jofre Torrents n 5	23.6	3.8 4/1
Y. Regeer n 8	71.1	3.3 7/6
Lucas Rosa n 8	84.4	3.2 7/6
A. Gaaei n 8	79.5	2.7 8/6
T. Kehrer n 8	57.9	1.9 5/3

Ajax — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. ter Stegen n 8	90	3.6 6/5
M. Paes n 8	94.6	2.4 6/5

NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar n 8	41.8	3.2 6/4	2.2 4/2	—
D. Geiger n 8	53.9	2.9 5/3	1.5 5/2	—
Jamiro Monteiro n 8	44.8	2.8 8/3	1.8 4/3	—
T. Storm n 8	90	1.9 8/4	0.6 4/1	S. Amrabat
B. Linssen n 8	70.9	1.7 7/3	0.6 3/1	—

NEC Nijmegen — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
K. Sierhuis n 8	46.1	3.2 7/5	1.5 5/1
A. Thomas n 4	67.3	2.3 4/3	1 2/1
E. Mor n 8	40.8	2.2 4/3	0.6 1/1
T. Chery n 8	83.4	2 6/6	1.3 5/3
B. Linssen n 8	70.9	1.9 5/4	0.5 2/1

NEC Nijmegen — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
T. Chery n 8	83.4	0.4 2/1	0.3 2/0
K. Sierhuis n 8	46.1	0.5 2/0	0.2 1/0
P. Schuurs n 8	45.5	0.5 2/0	0.2 1/0
E. Mor n 8	40.8	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0
Adam Tahaui n 8	49	0.5 2/0	0 0/0

NEC Nijmegen — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Jamiro Monteiro n 8	44.8	3.8 6/5
E. Mor n 8	40.8	3 4/3
A. Thomas n 4	67.3	2.7 4/3
Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar n 8	41.8	2.7 6/3
P. Schuurs n 8	45.5	2.5 5/3

NEC Nijmegen — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
N. Polster n 8	83.8	4.2 6/5
G. Crettaz n 8	77.3	1.5 2/1

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Ajax		NEC Nijmegen
61%	Possession	39%
1.78	Expected goals (xG)	1.05
18	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
8	Shots off target	4
5	Blocked shots	2
13	Shots inside the box	5
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	5
8	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Saves	4
487	Passes	302
83%	Pass accuracy	72%

Ajax player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
S. Amrabat	90	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	7.2
M. ter Stegen	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.2
Y. Baas	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
J. Brandt	90	0	0	2	0	8	1	0	6.3
T. Kehrer	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	7
J. Mokio	90	0	1	1	0	1	3	Y	6.2
O. Wijndal	80	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.6
T. Arokodare	73	1	0	2	1	0	1	0	7.6
Lucas Rosa	73	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.9
O. Gloukh	60	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	7.9
V. Tsygankov	60	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
A. Ouazane sub	30	0	0	3	2	0	1	Y	7.3
S. Adingra sub	30	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	6.9
Marcos Leonardo sub	17	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.7
A. Bouwman sub	17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
D. Klaassen sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5

NEC Nijmegen player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Dušan Tadić	90	0	1	1	1	0	0	6.9
T. Storm	90	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.9
D. Nejašmić	90	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.9
N. Lebreton	90	0	1	0	0	7	0	7.6
Deveron Fonville	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
Gabriel Brás	90	0	1	0	0	3	Y	6.2
G. Crettaz	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.6
Kevin Kers	82	0	2	0	0	2	0	6.3
T. Chery	82	1	1	1	1	0	0	7.5
B. Linssen	73	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.3
P. Schuurs	72	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
A. Kaplan sub	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
M. Bakker sub	17	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
W. Willumsson sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
Jamiro Monteiro sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Ajax v NEC Nijmegen — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

AjaxWWLWD

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 3.4 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

NEC NijmegenLDLLD

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 0.8 scored / 2.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Ajax 2 · 3 draws · NEC Nijmegen 1 · 3.17 goals/game

2026-02-21 Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen
2025-12-20 NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Ajax
2025-05-11 Ajax 0–3 NEC Nijmegen
2024-12-01 NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Ajax
2024-02-18 Ajax 2–2 NEC Nijmegen
2023-12-03 NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Ajax

League standing · 2026/27

Ajax#4 pos18 pts9 pl+15 GD

NEC Nijmegen#12 pos10 pts9 pl-1 GD

Goals per game

Ajax scored3

NEC Nijmegen scored1.67

Ajax conceded1.33

NEC Nijmegen conceded1.78

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Ajax v NEC Nijmegen?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Ajax v NEC Nijmegen was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.26 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and NEC Nijmegen?: In their last 6 meetings, Ajax won 2, NEC Nijmegen won 1 and there were 3 draws, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Ajax and NEC Nijmegen?: Recent form — Ajax 3W 1D 1L; NEC Nijmegen 0W 2D 3L.

Today’s boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 19 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.