AZ AlkmaarNAC Breda

AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda result

Full-time · AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda

Eredivisie · · AFAS Stadion

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: AZ Alkmaar · NAC Breda · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda — this Eredivisie match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 55% of 140 landed (95% range 46.7–63%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda drew 3–3 at AFAS Stadion in the Eredivisie on Sunday 17 May. AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions.

The goals

AZ Alkmaar led 2–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — AZ Alkmaar: Sven Mijnans (8’, assisted by Troy Parrott), M. Chávez (12’, assisted by Sven Mijnans) and Mexx Meerdink (90’, assisted by Weslley Patati); NAC Breda: M. Soumano (61’, assisted by Cherrion Valerius; 71’, assisted by F. Oldrup Jensen) and J. Talvitie (89’, assisted by Cherrion Valerius).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s six key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Mexx Meerdink’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: NAC Breda out-shot AZ Alkmaar 17 to 16 and created the better chances, 2.08 xG to 1.45 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Context.

Discipline

The bookings — AZ Alkmaar: Mexx Meerdink (85’); NAC Breda: R. Hillen (59’).

What it changes

AZ Alkmaar stay sixth after this result (34 league matches played).

NAC Breda stay 17th after this result (34 league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Cherrion Valerius (NAC Breda) 11.3, M. Soumano (NAC Breda) 11.2 and Sven Mijnans (AZ Alkmaar) 9.9 led the match.

Head-to-head

AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in the last three meetings with NAC Breda.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 55% of the time in the last 90 days (77 of 140).

Next up

AZ Alkmaar next host Groningen on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for AZ Alkmaar: AZ Alkmaar v Groningen, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda · Eredivisie
  • Venue: AFAS Stadion · Alkmaar
  • Referee: E. van de Graaf
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): AZ Alkmaar 4 · draws 1 · NAC Breda 1 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: AZ Alkmaar 1W 4D 0L · NAC Breda 1W 2D 2L

AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda (Eredivisie): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 0.88
Goals
against 1.13 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.75
over 8 matches
5.63 / 7.38
Corners
against 5.25 / 4.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5 / 4
Shots on target
against 3.88 / 4.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.5 / 1.13
Cards
against 1.88 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 11 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAZ Alkmaar for / againstLineNAC Breda for / against
Goals scored
1.88 for · 1.13 against n 8
3.75our book
0.88 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
5.63 for · 5.25 against n 8
9.5standard
7.38 for · 4.38 against n 8
Shots
15.25 for · 10.88 against n 8
19.5standard
15.88 for · 12.25 against n 8
Shots on target
5 for · 3.88 against n 8
8.5standard
4 for · 4.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.75 for · 12 against n 8
21.5standard
10.25 for · 12.75 against n 8
Cards shown
1.5 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
1.13 for · 1.75 against n 8

Referee: E. van de Graaf.

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar Goalkeeper

AZ Alkmaar — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
R. Owusu-Oduro36903241 min942.6 /90451.2 /9010 /90
J. Zoet19861638 min522.9 /90251.4 /9000 /90
H. Verhulst19090 min22 /9000 /9000 /90
AZ Alkmaar — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
R. Owusu-Oduro n 891.4
2.65/3
J. Zoet n 890
2.55/5

AZ Alkmaar Defensive

AZ Alkmaar — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Alexandre Penetra50884395 min611.2 /90491 /90350.7 /901673.4 /90300.6 /9060.1 /90
W. Goes50874358 min581.2 /90491 /90400.8 /901773.7 /90390.8 /90150.3 /90
M. de Wit48854090 min972.1 /90471 /90120.3 /901884.1 /90541.2 /90120.3 /90
E. Dijkstra30611828 min462.3 /90291.4 /9040.2 /90984.8 /90140.7 /9030.1 /90
D. Kasius28732038 min361.6 /90221 /9090.4 /90773.4 /90210.9 /9050.2 /90
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AZ Alkmaar — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
I. Jensen n 869.3
0.61/1
13/1
—
Alexandre Penetra n 884.5
0.85/1
0.84/2
—
W. Goes n 888.4
0.84/1
0.63/2
—
S. Mijnans n 891.3
0.53/1
1.15/3
—
M. de Wit n 889.5
0.95/2
0.53/1
—
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AZ Alkmaar — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
I. Jensen n 869.3
14/2
Alexandre Penetra n 884.5
1.37/3
W. Goes n 888.4
1.57/4
S. Mijnans n 891.3
28/5
M. de Wit n 889.5
2.38/7
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AZ Alkmaar Attacking

AZ Alkmaar — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
I. Jensen51592990 min60.2 /9070.2 /90381.1 /90180.5 /90531.6 /90762.3 /90
T. Parrott46793636 min300.7 /9080.2 /901162.9 /90691.7 /90531.3 /90260.6 /90
Weslley Patati37592194 min20.1 /9020.1 /90451.8 /90190.8 /90301.2 /90431.8 /90
R. Daal36592124 min30.1 /9030.1 /90241 /90140.6 /90451.9 /90642.7 /90
I. Sadiq27461252 min70.5 /9000 /90342.4 /90181.3 /90141 /9080.6 /90
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AZ Alkmaar — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
I. Jensen n 869.3
14/2
0.63/1
Alexandre Penetra n 884.5
0.53/1
00/0
W. Goes n 888.4
0.11/0
0.11/0
S. Mijnans n 891.3
1.87/5
1.25/3
M. de Wit n 889.5
0.86/0
0.43/0
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AZ Alkmaar — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
I. Jensen n 869.3
0.21/0
0.21/0
Alexandre Penetra n 884.5
00/0
00/0
W. Goes n 888.4
00/0
00/0
S. Mijnans n 891.3
0.53/1
00/0
M. de Wit n 889.5
0.32/0
0.32/0
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NAC Breda

NAC Breda Goalkeeper

NAC Breda — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
D. Bielica32902880 min1113.5 /90521.6 /9000 /90
NAC Breda — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for NAC Breda before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
D. Bielica n 890
2.85/4

NAC Breda Defensive

NAC Breda — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
B. Kemper33882911 min511.6 /90260.8 /90130.4 /901675.2 /90411.3 /9030.1 /90
R. Hillen24791903 min462.2 /90251.2 /90160.8 /901336.3 /90251.2 /9080.4 /90
Cherrion Valerius24751810 min402 /90221.1 /9080.4 /90984.9 /90160.8 /9040.2 /90
D. Odoi19801512 min291.7 /90201.2 /90120.7 /90845 /90261.5 /9030.2 /90
C. Leemans19651244 min130.9 /90211.5 /9040.3 /90392.8 /90120.9 /9040.3 /90
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NAC Breda — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for NAC Breda before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
B. Kemper n 890
1.48/3
0.95/2
—
K. Sowah n 877.3
0.43/0
0.32/0
—
D. Bielica n 890
00/0
00/0
—
M. Balard n 880.8
1.16/2
1.35/2
—
L. Holtby n 852.4
1.53/3
0.41/1
—
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NAC Breda — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for NAC Breda before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
B. Kemper n 890
1.87/4
K. Sowah n 877.3
2.27/5
M. Balard n 880.8
27/5
L. Holtby n 852.4
1.55/2
M. Nassoh n 860.6
1.96/3
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NAC Breda Attacking

NAC Breda — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
C. Brym23651485 min20.1 /9030.2 /90332 /90130.8 /90231.4 /90301.8 /90
J. Talvitie23601389 min20.1 /9020.1 /90231.5 /90110.7 /90251.6 /90191.2 /90
S. van Hooijdonk18711279 min50.4 /9000 /90251.8 /90130.9 /90100.7 /9060.4 /90
A. Ayew1654859 min10.1 /9000 /90202.1 /9070.7 /9080.8 /9060.6 /90
M. Soumano1256675 min30.4 /9000 /90233.1 /90101.3 /9081.1 /9050.7 /90
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NAC Breda — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for NAC Breda before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
B. Kemper n 890
0.95/2
0.42/1
K. Sowah n 877.3
1.56/3
0.43/0
D. Bielica n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Balard n 880.8
0.32/0
00/0
L. Holtby n 852.4
1.33/2
00/0
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NAC Breda — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for NAC Breda before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
B. Kemper n 890
0.31/1
0.11/0
K. Sowah n 877.3
0.11/0
00/0
D. Bielica n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Balard n 880.8
00/0
00/0
L. Holtby n 852.4
00/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
AZ AlkmaarNAC Breda
55%Possession45%
1.45Expected goals (xG)2.08
16Shots17
10Shots on target11
4Shots off target4
2Blocked shots2
12Shots inside the box8
7Corners6
1Offsides3
11Fouls6
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
7Saves7
430Passes355
85%Pass accuracy85%

AZ Alkmaar Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
R. Owusu-Oduro9000000008.9
E. Dijkstra9000110507.2
W. Goes9000110106.3
Alexandre Penetra9000100107.2
P. Koopmeiners9000002206.3
S. Mijnans9011323208.6
J. Clasie7000100107.2
R. Daal7000111107.2
M. Chávez5710111307.9
I. Jensen5700002006.9
T. Parrott3701002007
Mexx Meerdink sub53103200Y7.2
D. Kasius sub3300000105.9
Weslley Patati sub3301111107.2
K. Boogaard sub2000000006.2
A. Oufkir sub2000110006.7

NAC Breda Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
D. Bielica9000000007.2
Cherrion Valerius9002002407.2
F. Oldrup Jensen9001001306.9
R. Hillen90001014Y7.2
M. Balard9000002307
M. Soumano9020551108.9
B. Ghalidi6800001006.7
C. Leemans6800322007.3
E. Mahmutović5500100006
P. Reulen5500112006.5
K. Sowah5400110106.9
J. Candelaria sub3600100006.7
J. Talvitie sub3510112308.2
C. Brym sub3500000006.9
L. Holtby sub2200000006.6
A. Ayew sub2200110006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AZ AlkmaarDWDDD
Last 5: 1W 4D 0L · 2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
NAC BredaDDLLW
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 0.6 scored / 1 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
AZ Alkmaar 4 · 1 draw · NAC Breda 1 · 3 goals/game
  • 2025-08-31 NAC Breda 0–1 AZ Alkmaar
  • 2025-04-24 AZ Alkmaar 1–1 NAC Breda
  • 2024-12-15 NAC Breda 1–2 AZ Alkmaar
  • 2020-02-12 AZ Alkmaar 1–3 NAC Breda
  • 2019-02-08 NAC Breda 0–3 AZ Alkmaar
  • 2018-08-12 AZ Alkmaar 5–0 NAC Breda
League standing · 2025/26
AZ Alkmaar#7 pos52 pts34 pl+7 GD
NAC Breda#17 pos29 pts34 pl-23 GD
Goals per game
AZ Alkmaar scored1.71
NAC Breda scored1.03
AZ Alkmaar conceded1.5
NAC Breda conceded1.71

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda?
TACTIX’s free model pick for AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda?
In their last 6 meetings, AZ Alkmaar won 4, NAC Breda won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda?
Recent form — AZ Alkmaar 1W 4D 0L; NAC Breda 1W 2D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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