NAC Breda v AZ Alkmaar result

Full-time · NAC Breda 0–1 AZ Alkmaar

Eredivisie · Sun, 31 Aug 2025 15:45 BST · Rat Verlegh Stadion

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: NAC Breda · AZ Alkmaar · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

NAC Breda 0–1 AZ Alkmaar — AZ Alkmaar won this Eredivisie match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick

Draw or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.6% of 1442 landed (95% range 66.1–70.9%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated draw or away (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 854 of 1,317 times (64.8%), against an average rating of 69.6%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

The result

AZ Alkmaar won 1–0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion in the Eredivisie on Sunday 31 August. AZ Alkmaar have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — AZ Alkmaar: Sven Mijnans (89’, assisted by Matěj Šín). Sydney van Hooijdonk (41’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Sven Mijnans’s goal on 89 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: NAC Breda 1.96, AZ Alkmaar 2.82, from 11 shots to 25 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

J. Manschot showed five yellow cards and one red — against 2.7 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — AZ Alkmaar: Mees de Wit (35’), I. Sadiq (55’), Alexandre Penetra (69’), Kees Smit (83’) and Sven Mijnans (90+4’).

What it changes

NAC Breda move down from 12th to 15th (four league matches played). NAC Breda have scored 28 goals, the sixth-fewest of the 23 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 25 games, ranked per game). NAC Breda have conceded 41 goals, the 11th-most (shared) of the 23 clubs.

AZ Alkmaar move down from fifth to sixth (three league matches played). AZ Alkmaar have scored 42 goals, the sixth-most of the 23 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 25 games, ranked per game). AZ Alkmaar have conceded 41 goals, the 11th-most (shared) of the 23 clubs.

AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jordy Clasie (AZ Alkmaar) 4.5, Boy Kemper (NAC Breda) 4.4 and M. Balard (NAC Breda) 4.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or AZ Alkmaar, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.6% of the time in the last 90 days (989 of 1442).

Next up

AZ Alkmaar next host Groningen on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for AZ Alkmaar: AZ Alkmaar v Groningen, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: NAC Breda 0–1 AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie
Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion · Breda
Referee: J. Manschot
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): NAC Breda 1 · draws 1 · AZ Alkmaar 4 · 3.5 goals/game
Recent form: NAC Breda 1W 0D 4L · AZ Alkmaar 4W 1D 0L

NAC Breda 0–1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.63 / 3

Goals

against 1.88 / 1 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4 / 5

Corners

against 4.14 / 3.75 · 0 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

2.86 / 6.75

Shots on target

against 5.57 / 3.88 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2.14 / 2.63

Cards

against 1.43 / 2 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 7 matches

2.73 yellows

Referee · J. Manschot

16.82 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 11 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 28 August 2025. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	NAC Breda for / against	Line	AZ Alkmaar for / against
Goals scored	0.63 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	3 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4 for · 4.14 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	5 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	11.43 for · 14.29 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	15.38 for · 11.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	2.86 for · 5.57 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	6.75 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.29 for · 11.43 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	11 for · 10.75 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.14 for · 1.43 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	2.63 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: J. Manschot — 2.73 yellow cards a game, 0.18 red cards, 16.82 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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NAC Breda

NAC Breda Defensive

NAC Breda — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for NAC Breda before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
B. Kemper n 8	90	1.9 7/5	1.8 8/4	W. Goes
E. Mahmutović n 8	87	1.8 8/4	1.3 5/3	—
D. Bielica n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
K. Sowah n 8	83.3	1.5 7/3	0.7 3/2	K. Smit
M. Balard n 8	88.6	1 4/2	0.5 4/0	—
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NAC Breda — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for NAC Breda before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
E. Mahmutović n 8	87	1.2 4/2
B. Kemper n 8	90	1.1 6/3
D. Bielica n 8	90	0 0/0
K. Sowah n 8	83.3	1.9 7/3
J. Talvitie n 3	86.3	2.4 3/2
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NAC Breda Attacking

NAC Breda — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for NAC Breda before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
B. Kemper n 8	90	0.6 4/1	0.5 4/0
E. Mahmutović n 8	87	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
D. Bielica n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Sowah n 8	83.3	0.5 3/1	0 0/0
J. Talvitie n 3	86.3	1 2/1	0.3 1/0
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NAC Breda — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for NAC Breda before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
B. Kemper n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Bielica n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
E. Mahmutović n 8	87	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Sowah n 8	83.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Talvitie n 3	86.3	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
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AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar Goalkeeper

AZ Alkmaar — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Zoet	5	90450 min	163.2 /90	51 /90	00 /90
R. Owusu-Oduro	3	92277 min	72.3 /90	31 /90	00 /90

AZ Alkmaar — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Zoet n 8	90	2.5 6/3
R. Owusu-Oduro n 8	90.9	2.4 6/4

AZ Alkmaar Defensive

AZ Alkmaar — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
W. Goes	8	91727 min	131.6 /90	60.7 /90	40.5 /90	303.7 /90	81 /90	30.4 /90
D. Kasius	8	88703 min	151.9 /90	91.2 /90	10.1 /90	293.7 /90	60.8 /90	00 /90
Alexandre Penetra	7	91637 min	60.8 /90	91.3 /90	10.1 /90	172.4 /90	30.4 /90	00 /90
M. de Wit	7	86605 min	121.8 /90	60.9 /90	20.3 /90	253.7 /90	91.3 /90	30.4 /90
M. Chávez	2	53106 min	75.9 /90	32.5 /90	00 /90	97.6 /90	32.5 /90	00 /90
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AZ Alkmaar — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
W. Goes n 8	90.9	1 4/2	1.2 6/3	B. Kemper
D. Kasius n 8	87.9	0.8 4/2	0.3 2/0	—
K. Smit n 8	71.5	1.3 5/3	0.9 4/1	K. Sowah
I. Jensen n 8	30.1	1.1 2/1	1.1 3/0	—
Alexandre Penetra n 8	85.3	0.5 3/1	0.8 5/1	—
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AZ Alkmaar — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
W. Goes n 8	90.9	1.6 5/3
D. Kasius n 8	87.9	1.9 7/5
K. Smit n 8	71.5	2.7 8/7
I. Jensen n 8	30.1	1.5 3/1
Alexandre Penetra n 8	85.3	0.8 5/1
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AZ Alkmaar Attacking

AZ Alkmaar — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
I. Jensen	8	30241 min	00 /90	20.7 /90	72.6 /90	20.7 /90	41.5 /90	41.5 /90
T. Parrott	7	71500 min	101.8 /90	10.2 /90	224 /90	162.9 /90	112 /90	50.9 /90
Mexx Meerdink	7	41289 min	30.9 /90	20.6 /90	113.4 /90	30.9 /90	20.6 /90	20.6 /90
R. Daal	6	67403 min	00 /90	00 /90	30.7 /90	10.2 /90	61.3 /90	122.7 /90
I. Sadiq	5	58288 min	41.3 /90	00 /90	72.2 /90	51.6 /90	30.9 /90	41.3 /90
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AZ Alkmaar — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
W. Goes n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Kasius n 8	87.9	1.7 6/4	0.9 4/2
K. Smit n 8	71.5	1.3 5/3	0.9 4/2
I. Jensen n 8	30.1	2.6 4/2	0.7 2/0
Alexandre Penetra n 8	85.3	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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AZ Alkmaar — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
W. Goes n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Kasius n 8	87.9	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
K. Smit n 8	71.5	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
I. Jensen n 8	30.1	0 0/0	0.7 2/0
Alexandre Penetra n 8	85.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
NAC Breda		AZ Alkmaar
38%	Possession	62%
1.96	Expected goals (xG)	2.82
11	Shots	25
6	Shots on target	8
2	Shots off target	10
3	Blocked shots	7
9	Shots inside the box	15
1	Corners	7
1	Offsides	3
8	Fouls	13
0	Yellow cards	5
1	Red cards	0
7	Saves	6
282	Passes	463
76%	Pass accuracy	87%

NAC Breda Player Stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
D. Bielica	90	0	0	0	0	0	8.3
R. Hillen	90	1	1	0	3	0	7.3
B. Kemper	90	1	1	1	2	0	7.2
M. Balard	90	0	0	1	3	0	7.5
K. Sowah	90	3	2	1	0	0	6.9
B. Lucassen	89	1	1	0	3	0	6.9
L. Holtby	89	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
L. Greiml	67	0	0	1	2	0	8.2
J. Talvitie	45	1	1	1	0	0	6.6
M. Nassoh	45	0	0	2	0	0	6.5
S. van Hooijdonk	41	0	0	0	1	R	5.5
Cherrion Valerius sub	45	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
C. Brym sub	45	1	0	1	0	0	5.9
E. Mahmutović sub	23	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
C. Leemans sub	1	0	0	1	0	0	–
D. Versluis sub	1	0	0	0	1	0	–

AZ Alkmaar Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
R. Owusu-Oduro	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.3
W. Goes	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	8.2
Alexandre Penetra	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	7.3
P. Koopmeiners	90	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.6
J. Clasie	90	0	0	0	0	6	2	0	7.3
Mexx Meerdink	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.9
K. Smit	86	0	0	1	0	3	1	Y	6.7
D. Kasius	81	0	0	3	1	3	1	0	6.9
R. Daal	81	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	7.2
M. de Wit	60	0	0	2	2	1	2	Y	6.3
I. Sadiq	60	0	0	2	2	0	1	Y	6.3
Weslley Patati sub	30	0	0	3	0	2	2	0	6.3
S. Mijnans sub	30	1	0	3	1	1	1	Y	7.3
I. Jensen sub	9	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	6.6
L. Zeefuik sub	9	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.7
M. Šín sub	9	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	6.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind NAC Breda v AZ Alkmaar — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

NAC BredaLLLWL

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.4 scored / 2 conceded per game

AZ AlkmaarWWDWW

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.6 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

NAC Breda 1 · 1 draw · AZ Alkmaar 4 · 3.5 goals/game

2025-04-24 AZ Alkmaar 1–1 NAC Breda
2024-12-15 NAC Breda 1–2 AZ Alkmaar
2020-02-12 AZ Alkmaar 1–3 NAC Breda
2019-02-08 NAC Breda 0–3 AZ Alkmaar
2018-08-12 AZ Alkmaar 5–0 NAC Breda
2018-02-17 NAC Breda 1–3 AZ Alkmaar

League standing · 2025/26

NAC Breda#17 pos29 pts34 pl-23 GD

AZ Alkmaar#7 pos52 pts34 pl+7 GD

Goals per game

NAC Breda scored1.03

AZ Alkmaar scored1.71

NAC Breda conceded1.71

AZ Alkmaar conceded1.5

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for NAC Breda v AZ Alkmaar?: TACTIX’s free model pick for NAC Breda v AZ Alkmaar was Draw or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar?: In their last 6 meetings, NAC Breda won 1, AZ Alkmaar won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar?: Recent form — NAC Breda 1W 0D 4L; AZ Alkmaar 4W 1D 0L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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