This Matchweek

Willem IIExcelsior

Willem II v Excelsior result

Full-time · Willem II 0–3 Excelsior

Eredivisie · · Koning Willem II Stadion

Updated · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Willem II 0–3 Excelsior — Excelsior won this Eredivisie match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.70 at Betano
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 544 of 845 times (64.4%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Excelsior won 3–0 at Koning Willem II Stadion in the Eredivisie on Saturday 5 September. Excelsior have scored in eight consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Excelsior led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Excelsior: D. Garden (8’, assisted by Irakli Yegoian), Rick Meissen (34’, assisted by Simon Janssen) and Irakli Yegoian (85’, assisted by Stijn van Gassel).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with D. Garden’s goal on 8 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Willem II 0.86, Excelsior 1.60, from 16 shots to 13 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Robin Hensgens, Netherlands showed three yellow cards — against 3.1 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Willem II: Kasper Boogaard (51’) and Jaden Slory (81’); Excelsior: Nesto Groen (87’).

What it changes

Willem II move down from 15th to 17th (four league matches played). Willem II have scored 10 goals, the fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 11 games). Willem II have conceded 39 goals, the most of the 18 clubs.

Excelsior move up from sixth to fourth (four league matches played). Excelsior have scored 16 goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 11 games). Excelsior have conceded 28 goals, the third-most of the 18 clubs.

Excelsior’s three-goal margin was the biggest of round 5, across nine matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Irakli Yegoian (Excelsior) 9.6, Stijn van Gassel (Excelsior) 6.9 and Nathan Tjoe-A-On (Willem II) 6.6 led the match.

Head-to-head

Excelsior are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Willem II, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Willem II next host PEC Zwolle on 6 November 2026.

Excelsior next host GO Ahead Eagles on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Willem II: Willem II v PEC Zwolle, Friday 6 November — the preview. Next for Excelsior: Excelsior v GO Ahead Eagles, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Willem II 0–3 Excelsior · Eredivisie
  • Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion · Tilburg
  • Referee: Robin Hensgens, Netherlands
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 4): Willem II 0 · draws 2 · Excelsior 2 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: Excelsior 3W 1D 1L

Willem II 0–3 Excelsior (Eredivisie): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 1 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

246
Markets analysed

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Willem IIExcelsior
59%Possession41%
0.86Expected goals (xG)1.60
16Shots13
2Shots on target6
7Shots off target3
7Blocked shots4
11Shots inside the box10
7Corners6
1Offsides0
10Fouls14
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
3Saves2
508Passes367
83%Pass accuracy77%

Willem II Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Devin Haen9000200005.9
Finn Stam9000000006.3
H. ter Avest9000000206.6
Nathan Tjoe-A-On9000113307.2
Calvin Twigt9000101007.3
Uriel van Aalst9000200006.5
Maxime Delanghe9000000006.7
J. Slory82001113Y7.2
K. Boogaard63000002Y6.6
E. Gürbüz4500002006.9
M. Lemmens4500000106.5
M. Dekker sub4500001006.5
T. Vilhena sub4500102107
Thomas Verheydt sub2700100006.2
O. Martin sub800000006.3

Excelsior Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
L. Hartjes9000110007
S. Janssen9001002007.2
R. Meissen9010110008.6
J. Plug9000000207.6
C. Widell9000000008.7
Irakli Yegoian9011431109.7
S. van Gassel9001001008.3
David Garden8210210007
Á. Þorsteinsson7100000205.9
Eric da Silva Moreira6500101106.3
A. Sliti6400001106.2
I. Silva Timas sub2600001106.3
D. van Vianen sub2500001006.9
N. Groen sub19000000Y6.5
Giulliano Cairo sub800000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Willem II v Excelsior — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Willem II
ExcelsiorDWWLW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 4
Willem II 0 · 2 draws · Excelsior 2 · 3 goals/game
  • 2019-04-21 Excelsior 1–1 Willem II
  • 2018-09-15 Willem II 2–2 Excelsior
  • 2018-04-06 Excelsior 2–1 Willem II
  • 2017-08-13 Willem II 1–2 Excelsior
League standing · 2026/27
Willem II#18 pos2 pts11 pl-29 GD
Excelsior#15 pos11 pts11 pl-12 GD
Goals per game
Willem II scored0.91
Excelsior scored1.45
Willem II conceded3.55
Excelsior conceded2.55

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Willem II v Excelsior?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Willem II v Excelsior was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.70 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Excelsior?
In their last 4 meetings, Willem II won 0, Excelsior won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Willem II and Excelsior?
Recent form — Excelsior 3W 1D 1L.

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