Arsenal W v Birmingham City W result

Full-time · Arsenal W 1–1 Birmingham City W

FA WSL · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 12:45 BST · Meadow Park

Updated 17 Oct 2026, 14:53 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Arsenal W · Birmingham City W · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Arsenal W 1–1 Birmingham City W — this FA WSL match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick

Home win

Best price: 1.10 at Bet365

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 77.4% of 195 landed (95% range 71.1–82.7%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Arsenal W and Birmingham City W drew 1–1 at Meadow Park in the FA WSL on Saturday 17 October. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Arsenal W out-shot Birmingham City W 25 to 5 and created the better chances, 2.55 xG to 0.83 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Arsenal W’s goal on 66 minutes.

Discipline

The bookings — Arsenal W: Georgia Stanway (70’); Birmingham City W: N. Herron (72’).

What it changes

Arsenal W move up from 10th to eighth (six league matches played). Arsenal W are winless in their last four matches.

Birmingham City W move up from 13th to 11th (six league matches played). Birmingham City W are winless in their last six matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, N. Herron (Birmingham City W) 7.1, Lotte Wubben-Moy (Arsenal W) 5.9 and Ona Batlle (Arsenal W) 4.8 led the match.

What the model said

Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.4% of the time in the last 90 days (151 of 195).

Next up

Arsenal W next travel to Tottenham Hotspur W on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Arsenal W: Tottenham Hotspur W v Arsenal W, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Arsenal W 1–1 Birmingham City W · FA WSL
Venue: Meadow Park · Borehamwood, Hertfordshire
Referee: Stephen Parkinson
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Arsenal W 5 · draws 0 · Birmingham City W 1 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Arsenal W 1W 2D 2L · Birmingham City W 0W 2D 3L

Arsenal W 1–1 Birmingham City W (FA WSL): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 17 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.25 / 1

Goals

against 1.13 / 2.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 4.25

over 8 matches

9.33 / 4.5

Corners

against 1.67 / 9 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 4 matches

5.83 / 4.5

Shots on target

against 3.5 / 7.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 4 matches

0.5 / 0.5

Cards

against 1 / 1.5 · 0 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 4 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 4 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 4 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Arsenal W for / against	Line	Birmingham City W for / against
Goals scored	1.25 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5	4.25our book	1 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	9.33 for · 1.67 against n 6 Last 5	9.5standard	4.5 for · 9 against n 4 Last 5
Shots	19.67 for · 6.83 against n 6 Last 5	19.5standard	11 for · 18 against n 4 Last 5
Shots on target	5.83 for · 3.5 against n 6 Last 5	8.5standard	4.5 for · 7.75 against n 4 Last 5
Fouls committed	8.17 for · 9.5 against n 6 Last 5	21.5standard	9.5 for · 10.5 against n 4 Last 5
Cards shown	0.5 for · 1 against n 6 Last 5	3.5standard	0.5 for · 1.5 against n 4 Last 5

Arsenal W

Arsenal W — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
G. Reuteler n 3	30.7	2 2/0	1 1/0	—
Alessia Russo n 8	84.9	1.5 5/3	2.1 8/6	—
Caitlin Foord n 8	45.4	1.5 4/1	1 3/1	—
Georgia Stanway n 8	80.6	1.4 4/3	1.1 5/2	—
L. Baum n 4	68.8	1.3 3/1	1.3 4/0	—

Arsenal W — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
S. Cerci n 3	12.3	7.3 2/1	7.3 2/1
G. Reuteler n 3	30.7	3.9 3/1	2 2/0
L. Baum n 4	68.8	3.6 4/3	2 4/2
C. Kelly n 8	42	3.2 5/2	1.6 3/1
Alessia Russo n 8	84.9	2.7 7/6	1.2 5/3

Arsenal W — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Smilla Holmberg n 8	38.5	0.9 2/1	0.9 3/0
C. Kelly n 8	42	1.1 2/1	0 0/0
G. Reuteler n 3	30.7	1 1/0	0 0/0
Frida Maanum n 8	39.6	0.3 1/0	0.6 1/1
Stina Blackstenius n 8	47.3	0.7 2/1	0 0/0

Arsenal W — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
G. Reuteler n 3	30.7	3.9 2/2
Kim Little n 8	68.9	2.5 5/2
L. Baum n 4	68.8	2.3 3/3
Caitlin Foord n 8	45.4	2 5/2
Ona Batlle n 8	86.8	1.7 6/4

Arsenal W — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Anneke Borbe n 7	90.7	2 2/2

Birmingham City W

Birmingham City W — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
W. Leidhammar n 3	41.3	2.2 2/1	0.7 1/0	—
L. Crosthwaite n 4	86.8	1.8 2/2	0.5 2/0	—
V. Sarri n 6	40.5	1.1 3/0	0.4 1/0	—
M. Turner n 8	87.8	0.9 5/2	0.3 1/1	—
R. McKenna n 4	90	0.8 2/1	1.5 3/1	—

Birmingham City W — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Suzu Amano n 3	21.3	4.2 2/1	1.4 1/0
W. Leidhammar n 3	41.3	2.2 2/1	1.5 2/0
N. Herron n 4	86.8	2.1 3/2	0.3 1/0
V. Sarri n 6	40.5	1.5 3/1	0 0/0
L. Crosthwaite n 4	86.8	1.3 3/1	0.8 2/1

Birmingham City W — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Suzu Amano n 3	21.3	1.4 1/0	0 0/0
C. Effa Effa n 4	23.8	0 0/0	0.9 1/0
Lee Geum-Min n 6	53.3	0 0/0	0.6 2/0
N. Herron n 4	86.8	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
L. Crosthwaite n 4	86.8	0.3 1/0	0 0/0

Birmingham City W — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
V. Sarri n 6	40.5	3 4/2
L. Naalsund n 8	80.9	2.6 8/6
R. McKenna n 4	90	1.8 4/3
M. Turner n 8	87.8	1.2 7/2
L. Crosthwaite n 4	86.8	0.8 3/0

Birmingham City W — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
S. Baggaley n 6	90	4.3 6/3

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Arsenal W		Birmingham City W
76%	Possession	24%
2.55	Expected goals (xG)	0.83
25	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	1
16	Shots off target	2
5	Blocked shots	2
15	Shots inside the box	1
11	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
9	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Saves	3
609	Passes	205

Arsenal W player stats

Player	Min	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Misa Rodriguez	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Leah Williamson	90	0	0	0	4	0	0	7.7
Lotte Wubben-Moy	90	0	4	1	0	1	0	7.1
K. Cooney-Cross	90	0	3	1	3	0	0	7.2
Georgia Stanway	90	1	2	0	1	2	Y	7.7
Alessia Russo	90	0	6	0	3	0	0	6.8
Ona Batlle	86	0	0	0	1	3	0	7.3
L. Baum	86	0	2	1	2	1	0	6.5
Smilla Holmberg	78	0	1	0	4	1	0	7.6
Stina Blackstenius	77	0	2	0	0	1	0	6.4
G. Reuteler	13	0	1	0	1	0	0	6.6
Emily Fox	12	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.8
Caitlin Foord	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.4
Élisa de Almeida	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	6.3

Birmingham City W player stats

Player	Min	A	Sh	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
S. Baggaley	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.1
N. Herron	90	1	0	1	3	Y	6.9
M. Turner	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
S. Cooke	90	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
R. McKenna	90	0	0	1	2	0	6.6
L. Naalsund	90	0	1	1	3	0	5.9
L. Crosthwaite	90	0	1	0	1	0	6
Suzu Amano	57	0	0	0	1	0	6.4
Lee Geum-Min	33	0	0	1	0	0	6.7
V. Sarri	11	0	0	0	0	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Arsenal W v Birmingham City W — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Arsenal WDWLDL

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Birmingham City WLDLDL

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 1.4 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Arsenal W 5 · 0 draws · Birmingham City W 1 · 3 goals/game

2022-03-06 Arsenal W 4–2 Birmingham City W
2022-01-09 Birmingham City W 2–0 Arsenal W
2021-03-07 Birmingham City W 0–4 Arsenal W
2020-12-06 Arsenal W 3–0 Birmingham City W
2020-01-05 Arsenal W 2–0 Birmingham City W
2019-03-31 Birmingham City W 0–1 Arsenal W

League standing · 2026/27

Arsenal W#8 pos6 pts6 pl-2 GD

Birmingham City W#11 pos3 pts6 pl-5 GD

Goals per game

Arsenal W scored0.83

Birmingham City W scored1.33

Arsenal W conceded1.17

Birmingham City W conceded2.17

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Arsenal W v Birmingham City W?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Arsenal W v Birmingham City W was Home win (best price 1.10 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal W and Birmingham City W?: In their last 6 meetings, Arsenal W won 5, Birmingham City W won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Arsenal W and Birmingham City W?: Recent form — Arsenal W 1W 2D 2L; Birmingham City W 0W 2D 3L.

Today’s boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 17 Oct 2026, 14:53 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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