Japan v Paraguay prediction

Friendlies · Tue, 17 Nov 2026 13:10 GMT · National Stadium

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 12:20 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Japan · Paraguay

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick for Japan v Paraguay, Friendlies on Tue, 17 Nov 2026 13:10 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Draw

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.7% of 1766 landed (95% range 74.7–78.6%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Japan host Paraguay in Friendlies on Tuesday 17 November (kick-off 13:10 UK); the model’s free pick is Japan or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Both teams scored in 12 of Japan’s last 15 results in all competitions (80%).

Japan have scored in 11 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

10 of Japan’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). At home, Japan have three wins, three draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.71 points per game, scoring 1.71 and conceding 1.14.

Six of Paraguay’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in six of Paraguay’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, Paraguay have two wins, two draws and five defeats in their last 9 away matches in all competitions — 0.89 points per game, scoring 0.67 and conceding 1.67.

Paraguay are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Japan the stronger side, 147 rating points above Paraguay (Japan 1994, Paraguay 1846, after at least 37 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Japan are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Paraguay, every meeting checked. The most recent meeting, on 10 October 2025, finished Japan 2–2 Paraguay.

Team news

Predicted Japan XI (3-4-2-1): Z. Suzuki, H. Ito, S. Taniguchi, T. Tomiyasu, K. Nakamura, D. Kamada, K. Sano, R. Dōan, A. Tanaka, Y. Sugawara, A. Ueda — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Ayase Ueda (3.7 per match over nine appearances, five goals and two assists) and Keito Nakamura (3.5 per match over nine appearances, one goal and three assists) have been Japan’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Japan (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Ayase Ueda averages 2.6 shots per 90 over 1223 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. Keito Nakamura averages 1.5 shots per 90 over 1161 minutes, with a shot in six of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Paraguay XI (4-4-2): O. Gill, G. Gomez, J. Cáceres, J. Alonso, O. Alderete, M. Galarza, A. Cubas, D. Gómez, M. Almirón, J. Enciso, G. Ávalos — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, J. Cáceres (4.6 per match over nine appearances, two assists) and Matías Galarza (4.6 per match over seven appearances, two goals and one assist) have been Paraguay’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Paraguay (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), J. Cáceres averages 4.4 tackles per 90 over 714 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last nine appearances. Matías Galarza averages 0.8 key passes per 90 over 1649 minutes, with a key pass in two of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Tue, 17 Nov 2026 13:10 GMT · Friendlies · National Stadium
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 4): Japan 3 · draws 1 · Paraguay 0 · 4.25 goals/game
Recent form: Japan 1W 2D 2L · Paraguay 1W 2D 2L

Japan v Paraguay (Friendlies): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2 / 0.63

Goals

against 1.38 / 1 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

3.25 / 2.83

Corners

against 5.5 / 6.17 · 1 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 4 matches

3.25 / 2.33

Shots on target

against 4.5 / 4.17 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 4 matches

1 / 2

Cards

against 1.75 / 1.17 · 1 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 4 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 4 July 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 4 July 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Japan for / against	Line	Paraguay for / against
Goals scored	2 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.63 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.25 for · 5.5 against n 4 Last 5	9.5standard	2.83 for · 6.17 against n 6 Last 5
Shots	8.5 for · 10.5 against n 4 Last 5	19.5standard	7 for · 15.5 against n 6 Last 5
Shots on target	3.25 for · 4.5 against n 4 Last 5	8.5standard	2.33 for · 4.17 against n 6 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.75 for · 7.5 against n 4 Last 5	21.5standard	13.5 for · 9.67 against n 6 Last 5
Cards shown	1 for · 1.75 against n 4 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 1.17 against n 6 Last 5

Japan

Japan Goalkeeper

Japan — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Z. Suzuki	4	90360 min	123 /90	51.3 /90	00 /90

Japan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Japan before kick-off, to 4 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Z. Suzuki n 4	90	3 3/3

Japan Defensive

Japan — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
H. Ito	4	90360 min	41 /90	10.3 /90	20.5 /90	112.8 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90
Y. Sugawara	4	36145 min	31.9 /90	00 /90	10.6 /90	106.2 /90	31.9 /90	00 /90
S. Taniguchi	3	77231 min	00 /90	10.4 /90	20.8 /90	41.6 /90	20.8 /90	10.4 /90
T. Tomiyasu	3	61184 min	21 /90	21 /90	21 /90	104.9 /90	52.4 /90	00 /90
K. Itakura	2	65129 min	10.7 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90	64.2 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90
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Japan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Japan before kick-off, to 4 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
H. Ito n 4	90	1.8 3/2	0 0/0	—
Z. Suzuki n 4	90	0 0/0	0.3 1/0	—
D. Kamada n 5	80.8	0.7 3/0	1.8 3/2	—
A. Ueda n 4	81	1.7 4/2	1.1 3/1	—
Keito Nakamura n 4	77.5	0.9 2/1	0.3 1/0	—
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Japan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Japan before kick-off, to 4 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
H. Ito n 4	90	1 2/1
D. Kamada n 5	80.8	1.3 3/2
A. Ueda n 4	81	0.3 1/0
Keito Nakamura n 4	77.5	1.2 3/1
R. Dōan n 4	70.5	1.3 3/1
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Japan Attacking

Japan — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Ueda	4	81324 min	20.6 /90	10.3 /90	71.9 /90	41.1 /90	30.8 /90	20.6 /90
Junya Ito	4	54215 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90	10.4 /90	52.1 /90	10.4 /90
D. Maeda	3	82245 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	20.7 /90	10.4 /90	20.7 /90	00 /90
Koki Ogawa	2	2039 min	00 /90	12.3 /90	24.6 /90	00 /90	12.3 /90	00 /90
T. Kubo	1	7575 min	00 /90	11.2 /90	11.2 /90	00 /90	11.2 /90	00 /90
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Japan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Japan before kick-off, to 4 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
H. Ito n 4	90	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
Z. Suzuki n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Kamada n 5	80.8	0.4 2/0	0.4 2/0
A. Ueda n 4	81	1.9 3/2	1.1 2/1
Keito Nakamura n 4	77.5	1.2 2/1	0.6 2/0
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Japan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Japan before kick-off, to 4 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
H. Ito n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Z. Suzuki n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Kamada n 5	80.8	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
A. Ueda n 4	81	0.6 1/1	0.3 1/0
Keito Nakamura n 4	77.5	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0
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Paraguay

Paraguay Goalkeeper

Paraguay — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Orlando Gill	5	93464 min	203.9 /90	51 /90	00 /90
Roberto Fernández	1	9393 min	11 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Paraguay — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paraguay before kick-off, to 4 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Orlando Gill n 5	92.8	3.9 5/5

Paraguay Defensive

Paraguay — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
G. Gomez	6	93557 min	71.1 /90	50.8 /90	40.6 /90	264.2 /90	20.3 /90	10.2 /90
O. Alderete	6	87519 min	20.3 /90	20.3 /90	71.2 /90	183.1 /90	30.5 /90	00 /90
J. Cáceres	6	77460 min	285.5 /90	51 /90	00 /90	5410.6 /90	102 /90	10.2 /90
G. Velazquez	5	58291 min	30.9 /90	30.9 /90	41.2 /90	144.3 /90	41.2 /90	10.3 /90
J. Alonso	4	93372 min	92.2 /90	51.2 /90	41 /90	153.6 /90	41 /90	20.5 /90
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Paraguay — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paraguay before kick-off, to 4 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
G. Gomez n 8	92.1	0.9 3/2	0.4 3/0	—
O. Alderete n 8	88	0.8 4/1	0.5 4/0	—
D. Gómez n 6	79	1.5 6/2	0.8 3/1	—
J. Cáceres n 6	76.7	2 5/4	1.2 3/2	—
Orlando Gill n 5	92.8	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
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Paraguay — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paraguay before kick-off, to 4 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
G. Gomez n 8	92.1	1 6/2
O. Alderete n 8	88	0.9 2/2
D. Gómez n 6	79	3 6/6
J. Cáceres n 6	76.7	5.5 6/5
Andrés Cubas n 8	87	3.4 8/6
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Paraguay Attacking

Paraguay — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
J. Enciso	4	85339 min	00 /90	20.5 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90	51.3 /90	123.2 /90
A. Sanabria	3	72216 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90	10.4 /90	20.8 /90	10.4 /90
Gabriel Ávalos	3	37112 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.8 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Alex Arce	2	3060 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	23 /90	00 /90
D. Gómez	6	79474 min	00 /90	00 /90	50.9 /90	10.2 /90	61.1 /90	50.9 /90
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Paraguay — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paraguay before kick-off, to 4 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
G. Gomez n 8	92.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
O. Alderete n 8	88	0.6 3/2	0.4 2/1
D. Gómez n 6	79	0.9 4/1	0.2 1/0
J. Cáceres n 6	76.7	0.4 2/0	0.2 1/0
Orlando Gill n 5	92.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Paraguay — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paraguay before kick-off, to 4 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
G. Gomez n 8	92.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
O. Alderete n 8	88	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
D. Gómez n 6	79	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Cáceres n 6	76.7	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Orlando Gill n 5	92.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Japan v Paraguay — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

JapanLDWDL

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

ParaguayLWDDL

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 0.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 4

Japan 3 · 1 draw · Paraguay 0 · 4.25 goals/game

2025-10-10 Japan 2–2 Paraguay
2022-06-02 Japan 4–1 Paraguay
2019-09-05 Japan 2–0 Paraguay
2018-06-12 Japan 4–2 Paraguay

Goals per game

Japan scored1.8

Paraguay scored0.6

Japan conceded1.4

Paraguay conceded1.2

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Japan v Paraguay?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Japan v Paraguay is Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Japan and Paraguay?: In their last 4 meetings, Japan won 3, Paraguay won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 4.25 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Japan and Paraguay?: Recent form — Japan 1W 2D 2L; Paraguay 1W 2D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 12:20 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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