FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol prediction

J1 League · · Ajinomoto Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: FC Tokyo · Kashiwa Reysol · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol, J1 League on Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.3% of 4315 landed (95% range 76–78.5%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

FC Tokyo host Kashiwa Reysol in the J1 League on Wednesday 21 October (kick-off 11:00 UK); the model’s free pick is FC Tokyo or Kashiwa Reysol (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

Form and the table

10 of FC Tokyo’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in seven of FC Tokyo’s last 15 results (47%). At home, FC Tokyo have three wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 6 home matches — 1.67 points per game, scoring 1.67 and conceding 1.50. FC Tokyo have scored 17 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). FC Tokyo have conceded eight goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Seven of Kashiwa Reysol’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in six of Kashiwa Reysol’s last 15 results (40%). Away from home, Kashiwa Reysol have two wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 6 away matches — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.33 and conceding 1.33. Kashiwa Reysol have scored 21 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Kashiwa Reysol have conceded 14 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

FC Tokyo (fourth) and Kashiwa Reysol (first) are one point apart, 2027 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have FC Tokyo the stronger side, 219 rating points above Kashiwa Reysol (FC Tokyo 1694, Kashiwa Reysol 1475, after at least 305 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 29 April 2026, finished Kashiwa Reysol 1–3 FC Tokyo.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · J1 League · Ajinomoto Stadium
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): FC Tokyo 1 · draws 2 · Kashiwa Reysol 3 · 3.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: FC Tokyo 1W 2D 2L · Kashiwa Reysol 2W 0D 3L

TACTIX runs FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol (J1 League) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 17 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.38 / 2.38
Goals
against 1.25 / 1.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
7 / 4.63
Corners
against 2.88 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.25 / 4.25
Shots on target
against 2.5 / 3.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.13 / 1.13
Cards
against 1.13 / 1.75 · 0 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameFC Tokyo for / againstLineKashiwa Reysol for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.25 against n 8
2.5standard
2.38 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
7 for · 2.88 against n 8
9.5standard
4.63 for · 4.25 against n 8
Shots
18.25 for · 10.13 against n 8
19.5standard
11.5 for · 11.38 against n 8
Shots on target
5.25 for · 2.5 against n 8
8.5standard
4.25 for · 3.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.63 for · 11.13 against n 8
21.5standard
8 for · 8.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.13 for · 1.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1.13 for · 1.75 against n 8
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
T. Nakagawa n 825
2.35/0
0.51/0
—
Kyota Tokiwa n 867.3
2.28/4
1.37/1
—
Marcelo Ryan n 868.4
26/4
0.85/0
—
K. Hashimoto n 876.1
1.67/2
0.11/0
—
Y. Nagatomo n 850.8
1.34/2
0.41/1
—
FC Tokyo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Marcelo Ryan n 868.4
3.88/7
1.67/1
F. Yamada n 812.8
3.53/1
2.63/0
M. Nagakura n 871.6
2.46/3
1.36/1
K. Sato n 869.4
2.17/5
16/0
L. Nozawa n 827.3
2.14/1
0.82/0
FC Tokyo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
K. Tawaratsumida n 833.9
0.31/0
0.72/0
F. Yamada n 812.8
00/0
0.91/0
L. Nozawa n 827.3
0.41/0
0.41/0
M. Nagakura n 871.6
0.53/0
0.21/0
T. Nakagawa n 825
00/0
0.51/0
FC Tokyo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
K. Hashimoto n 878.5
38/6
K. Hashimoto n 876.1
2.46/3
T. Nakagawa n 825
2.32/1
S. Muroya n 889.9
1.87/5
A. Scholz n 887.5
1.87/4
FC Tokyo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
H. Tanaka n 490
2.33/3
Kim Seung-Gyu n 885
2.15/4
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Yusuke Segawa n 835.6
3.26/2
0.92/1
—
Hinata Yamauchi n 843.3
2.14/3
1.33/2
—
Shota Fujio n 846.5
1.74/2
13/1
—
Koki Kumasaka n 864.3
1.64/4
0.53/0
—
Yuki Kakita n 860.8
1.55/3
1.34/2
—
Kashiwa Reysol — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Mao Hosoya n 829.1
2.76/1
1.23/0
Hinata Yamauchi n 843.3
2.36/2
1.85/2
Shota Fujio n 846.5
2.25/2
0.73/0
Tojiro Kubo n 875.6
1.85/4
0.94/2
Yuki Kakita n 860.8
1.56/1
0.63/0
Kashiwa Reysol — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Mao Hosoya n 829.1
0.82/0
0.41/0
Yuki Kakita n 860.8
0.63/0
0.42/0
K. Yuba n 367.3
0.41/0
0.41/0
Yoshio Koizumi n 881.1
0.32/0
0.42/1
Seiya Baba n 837.5
00/0
0.62/0
Kashiwa Reysol — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Koki Kumasaka n 864.3
3.58/6
S. Toshima n 848.9
2.37/2
Seiya Baba n 837.5
2.13/2
Riki Harakawa n 839.1
25/1
Tojiro Kubo n 875.6
1.96/3
Kashiwa Reysol — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Kengo Nagai n 687.8
2.64/2
Ryosuke Kojima n 890
2.36/3

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
FC TokyoDLDLW
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Kashiwa ReysolWLLWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 2.6 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
FC Tokyo 1 · 2 draws · Kashiwa Reysol 3 · 3.33 goals/game
  • 2026-04-29 Kashiwa Reysol 1–3 FC Tokyo
  • 2026-02-28 FC Tokyo 0–2 Kashiwa Reysol
  • 2025-07-05 Kashiwa Reysol 1–0 FC Tokyo
  • 2025-04-11 FC Tokyo 1–1 Kashiwa Reysol
  • 2024-07-06 Kashiwa Reysol 3–2 FC Tokyo
  • 2024-05-11 FC Tokyo 3–3 Kashiwa Reysol
League standing · 2027
Last recorded position — not updated during the season.
FC Tokyo#4 pos20 pts9 pl+9 GD
Kashiwa Reysol#1 pos21 pts9 pl+7 GD
Goals per game
FC Tokyo scored1.89
Kashiwa Reysol scored2.33
FC Tokyo conceded0.89
Kashiwa Reysol conceded1.56

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol?
TACTIX’s free model pick for FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol?
In their last 6 meetings, FC Tokyo won 1, Kashiwa Reysol won 3 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol?
Recent form — FC Tokyo 1W 2D 2L; Kashiwa Reysol 2W 0D 3L.

Today’s boards

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