Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol prediction

J1 League · · Mercari Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Kashima · Kashiwa Reysol · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol, J1 League on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 07:00 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.2% of 4535 landed (95% range 76–78.4%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Kashima host Kashiwa Reysol in the J1 League on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 07:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Kashima or Kashiwa Reysol (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Kashima are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Kashiwa Reysol, every meeting checked. Kashima have won their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Four of Kashima’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (27%). Both teams scored in five of Kashima’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). At home, Kashima have six wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.71 points per game, scoring 2.43 and conceding 0.29. Kashima have scored 19 goals, the fourth-most of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Kashima have conceded 16 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Seven of Kashiwa Reysol’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in six of Kashiwa Reysol’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, Kashiwa Reysol have two wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.33 and conceding 1.33. Kashiwa Reysol have scored 21 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Kashiwa Reysol have conceded 14 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Kashima (sixth) and Kashiwa Reysol (first) are five points apart, 2027 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Kashima the stronger side, 322 rating points above Kashiwa Reysol (Kashima 1798, Kashiwa Reysol 1475, after at least 305 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 24 April 2026, finished Kashiwa Reysol 0–1 Kashima.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · J1 League · Mercari Stadium
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Kashima 5 · draws 1 · Kashiwa Reysol 0 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Kashima 4W 0D 1L · Kashiwa Reysol 2W 0D 3L

Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol (J1 League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2 / 2.38
Goals
against 0.88 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
2.5 / 4.63
Corners
against 6 / 4.25 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 4.38
Shots on target
against 3.75 / 3.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1 / 1.13
Cards
against 1.63 / 1.75 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameKashima for / againstLineKashiwa Reysol for / against
Goals scored
2 for · 0.88 against n 8
2.5standard
2.38 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
2.5 for · 6 against n 8
9.5standard
4.63 for · 4.25 against n 8
Shots
11.25 for · 13 against n 8
19.5standard
11.63 for · 11.38 against n 8
Shots on target
4.25 for · 3.75 against n 8
8.5standard
4.38 for · 3.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.38 for · 12.13 against n 8
21.5standard
8 for · 8.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.5standard
1.13 for · 1.75 against n 8
Kashima
Kashima — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Kei Chinen n 836.1
2.56/2
2.26/1
—
Yuma Suzuki n 864.9
2.36/4
2.17/5
—
K. Tsukui n 831.5
1.85/0
0.71/1
—
Shu Morooka n 847.1
1.75/2
2.66/3
—
Haruki Hayashi n 840.5
1.73/2
1.73/3
—
Kashima — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Léo Ceará n 884.8
2.48/4
1.25/3
Aleksandar Čavrić n 852.4
2.45/3
1.74/2
Shu Morooka n 847.1
2.46/3
1.74/2
H. Tokuda n 821.5
2.11/1
11/1
Élber n 859.3
1.97/2
1.37/0
Kashima — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
H. Tokuda n 821.5
11/1
0.51/0
Aleksandar Čavrić n 852.4
0.92/1
00/0
Haruki Hayashi n 840.5
0.31/0
0.62/0
Shu Morooka n 847.1
0.73/0
00/0
Léo Ceará n 884.8
0.53/1
0.11/0
Kashima — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
K. Misao n 867
2.26/5
Kei Chinen n 836.1
2.23/3
Yuta Matsumura n 850
1.86/2
K. Tsukui n 831.5
1.83/1
Aleksandar Čavrić n 852.4
1.74/2
Kashima — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Tomoki Hayakawa n 879.8
3.16/4
Yuji Kajikawa n 591.4
2.84/4
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Yusuke Segawa n 835.8
3.16/2
0.92/1
—
Hinata Yamauchi n 843.1
2.14/3
1.33/2
—
Shota Fujio n 846.5
1.74/2
13/1
—
Koki Kumasaka n 864.3
1.64/4
0.53/0
—
Yuki Kakita n 860.8
1.55/3
1.34/2
—
Kashiwa Reysol — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Mao Hosoya n 829.1
3.17/1
1.54/0
Hinata Yamauchi n 843.1
2.36/2
1.85/2
Shota Fujio n 846.5
2.25/2
0.73/0
Tojiro Kubo n 875.6
1.85/4
0.94/2
Yuki Kakita n 860.8
1.56/1
0.63/0
Kashiwa Reysol — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Mao Hosoya n 829.1
0.82/0
0.41/0
Yuki Kakita n 860.8
0.63/0
0.42/0
K. Yuba n 367.3
0.41/0
0.41/0
Yoshio Koizumi n 881.1
0.32/0
0.42/1
Seiya Baba n 837.5
00/0
0.62/0
Kashiwa Reysol — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Koki Kumasaka n 864.3
3.58/6
Seiya Baba n 837.5
2.13/2
Riki Harakawa n 839.1
25/1
Tojiro Kubo n 875.6
1.96/3
Wataru Harada n 878.3
1.76/4
Kashiwa Reysol — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Kengo Nagai n 788.1
2.55/2
Ryosuke Kojima n 890
2.36/3

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
KashimaLWWWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Kashiwa ReysolWLLWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 2.6 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Kashima 5 · 1 draw · Kashiwa Reysol 0 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2026-04-24 Kashiwa Reysol 0–1 Kashima
  • 2026-02-21 Kashima 2–0 Kashiwa Reysol
  • 2025-07-20 Kashima 3–2 Kashiwa Reysol
  • 2025-03-08 Kashiwa Reysol 1–3 Kashima
  • 2024-09-21 Kashima 0–0 Kashiwa Reysol
  • 2024-05-06 Kashiwa Reysol 1–2 Kashima
League standing · 2027
Last recorded position — not updated during the season.
Kashima#6 pos16 pts9 pl+3 GD
Kashiwa Reysol#1 pos21 pts9 pl+7 GD
Goals per game
Kashima scored2.11
Kashiwa Reysol scored2.33
Kashima conceded1.78
Kashiwa Reysol conceded1.56

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol?
In their last 6 meetings, Kashima won 5, Kashiwa Reysol won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol?
Recent form — Kashima 4W 0D 1L; Kashiwa Reysol 2W 0D 3L.

Today’s boards

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