Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka prediction
Team pages: Nagoya Grampus · Cerezo Osaka · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka, J1 League on Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00 BST.
The match
Nagoya Grampus host Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League on Wednesday 21 October (kick-off 11:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
Nagoya Grampus have scored in 15 consecutive matches — every result checked. 12 of Nagoya Grampus’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (80%).
Cerezo Osaka have scored in eight consecutive matches.
Form and the table
Both teams scored in 12 of Nagoya Grampus’s last 15 results (80%). At home, Nagoya Grampus have three wins, three draws and no defeats in their last 6 home matches — 2.00 points per game, scoring 2.17 and conceding 1.00. Nagoya Grampus have scored nine goals, the sixth-fewest of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Nagoya Grampus have conceded 15 goals, the seventh-most of the 20 clubs.
10 of Cerezo Osaka’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 11 of Cerezo Osaka’s last 15 results (73%). Away from home, Cerezo Osaka have three wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches — 1.57 points per game, scoring 1.29 and conceding 1.29. Cerezo Osaka have scored seven goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Cerezo Osaka have conceded 12 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.
Nagoya Grampus (15th) and Cerezo Osaka (12th) are three points apart, 2027 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Cerezo Osaka the stronger side, 44 rating points above Nagoya Grampus (Cerezo Osaka 1724, Nagoya Grampus 1680, after at least 306 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Cerezo Osaka 6–1 Nagoya Grampus.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · J1 League · Toyota Stadium
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Nagoya Grampus 3 · draws 1 · Cerezo Osaka 2 · 3.5 goals/game
- Recent form: Nagoya Grampus 2W 1D 2L · Cerezo Osaka 3W 1D 1L
As of 17 October 2026, TACTIX’s model — calibration published live, losing picks included — covers Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka across 246 markets; the key numbers are on this page. See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Nagoya Grampus for / against | Line | Cerezo Osaka for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 2 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 2.63 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 3.75 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 4.75 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 13.25 for · 13.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 13 for · 13.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 5 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 8.5 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 10.63 for · 11.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 0.88 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.63 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
Nagoya Grampus
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yudai Kimura n 8 | 85.8 | 2 | 1.3 | — |
| Kensuke Nagai n 8 | 39.8 | 1.7 | 1.4 | — |
| Takuya Uchida n 8 | 57.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | — |
| Yota Sato n 8 | 46.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | — |
| Tomoki Takamine n 8 | 89.9 | 1 | 1.5 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yuya Yamagishi n 8 | 63.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| Mateus Castro n 8 | 50.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Hidemasa Koda n 8 | 25.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Yudai Kimura n 8 | 85.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Kensuke Nagai n 8 | 39.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidemasa Koda n 8 | 25.8 | 0 | 1.3 |
| Yuya Yamagishi n 8 | 63.5 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Kensuke Nagai n 8 | 39.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Mateus Castro n 8 | 50.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Yudai Kimura n 8 | 85.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Takuya Uchida n 8 | 57.1 | 2.4 |
| Soichiro Mori n 8 | 24.9 | 2.3 |
| Katsuhiro Nakayama n 8 | 85.1 | 2.2 |
| Hidemasa Koda n 8 | 25.8 | 2.2 |
| Haruya Fujii n 8 | 93.8 | 1.9 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pisano n 8 | 90 | 3.9 |
| Daniel Schmidt n 8 | 93.8 | 3.1 |
Cerezo Osaka
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Ishiwatari n 8 | 51.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 | — |
| Thiago Andrade n 8 | 52.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | — |
| K. Yoshino n 8 | 29.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | — |
| Pablo Sabbag n 8 | 80.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | — |
| J. Irvine n 8 | 63.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Sabbag n 8 | 80.8 | 4.6 | 2.5 |
| Solomon Sakuragawa n 8 | 39.3 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Satoki Uejo n 8 | 17.1 | 2 | 2 |
| Motohiko Nakajima n 8 | 65.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Yumeki Yokoyama n 8 | 59.6 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solomon Sakuragawa n 8 | 39.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Masaya Shibayama n 8 | 72 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Y. Komi n 8 | 52.4 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Shion Homma n 8 | 36.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Yumeki Yokoyama n 8 | 59.6 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Nelson Ishiwatari n 8 | 51.9 | 5.6 |
| K. Yoshino n 8 | 29.6 | 3.8 |
| Ayumu Ohata n 8 | 61.3 | 2.6 |
| Dion Cools n 8 | 79.1 | 2 |
| K. Noborizato n 8 | 46 | 2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Kosuke Nakamura n 8 | 90 | 3.1 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-05-17 Cerezo Osaka 6–1 Nagoya Grampus
- 2026-04-04 Nagoya Grampus 3–0 Cerezo Osaka
- 2025-10-04 Nagoya Grampus 2–1 Cerezo Osaka
- 2025-03-08 Cerezo Osaka 1–1 Nagoya Grampus
- 2024-06-30 Cerezo Osaka 2–1 Nagoya Grampus
- 2024-04-21 Nagoya Grampus 2–1 Cerezo Osaka
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka is Over 2.5 goals.
- What is the head-to-head record between Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka?
- In their last 6 meetings, Nagoya Grampus won 3, Cerezo Osaka won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka?
- Recent form — Nagoya Grampus 2W 1D 2L; Cerezo Osaka 3W 1D 1L.
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