Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka prediction

J1 League · · Ajinomoto Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka, J1 League on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 07:00 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.4% of 4571 landed (95% range 76.1–78.6%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Tokyo Verdy host Avispa Fukuoka in the J1 League on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 07:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Tokyo Verdy or Avispa Fukuoka (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Tokyo Verdy have scored four goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs (2027 so far).

Tokyo Verdy are winless in their last five matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Six of Tokyo Verdy’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in six of Tokyo Verdy’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). At home, Tokyo Verdy have three wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.25 points per game, scoring 0.75 and conceding 2.13. Tokyo Verdy have conceded 14 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far).

Seven of Avispa Fukuoka’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in 10 of Avispa Fukuoka’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Avispa Fukuoka have three wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.13 and conceding 1.38. Avispa Fukuoka have scored 11 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Avispa Fukuoka have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Tokyo Verdy (20th) and Avispa Fukuoka (17th) are three points apart, 2027 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Avispa Fukuoka the stronger side, 79 rating points above Tokyo Verdy (Avispa Fukuoka 1429, Tokyo Verdy 1350, after at least 98 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Tokyo Verdy are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Avispa Fukuoka, every meeting checked. The most recent meeting, on 8 November 2025, finished Tokyo Verdy 0–0 Avispa Fukuoka.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · J1 League · Ajinomoto Stadium
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 4): Tokyo Verdy 1 · draws 3 · Avispa Fukuoka 0 · 0.25 goals/game
  • Recent form: Tokyo Verdy 0W 1D 4L · Avispa Fukuoka 1W 2D 2L

Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 21 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.63 / 1.13
Goals
against 2.38 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.63 / 4.5
Corners
against 5.25 / 4.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
2 / 3.5
Shots on target
against 5.38 / 3.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.25 / 1.88
Cards
against 1.38 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameTokyo Verdy for / againstLineAvispa Fukuoka for / against
Goals scored
0.63 for · 2.38 against n 8
2.5standard
1.13 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
3.63 for · 5.25 against n 8
9.5standard
4.5 for · 4.38 against n 8
Shots
8.88 for · 14 against n 8
19.5standard
11 for · 9.88 against n 8
Shots on target
2 for · 5.38 against n 8
8.5standard
3.5 for · 3.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.13 for · 9.75 against n 8
21.5standard
10.25 for · 10 against n 8
Cards shown
1.25 for · 1.38 against n 8
3.5standard
1.88 for · 1.38 against n 8
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Y. Fukuda n 858.5
3.17/6
13/2
—
Itsuki Someno n 873.1
2.56/3
3.57/6
—
Kai Shibato n 868.6
2.56/5
2.67/6
—
Rei Hirakawa n 856.5
2.24/3
0.62/1
—
Daiki Fukazawa n 884.4
1.97/5
0.11/0
—
Tokyo Verdy — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Issei Kumatoriya n 849.9
1.63/2
0.51/1
Shuto Tanabe n 843.1
1.34/1
0.31/0
Ryosuke Shirai n 834.6
1.33/1
13/0
Itsuki Someno n 873.1
1.15/2
0.32/0
Shion Nakayama n 642.7
1.12/1
00/0
Tokyo Verdy — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Ryosuke Shirai n 834.6
0.31/0
00/0
Koki Morita n 872
0.21/0
00/0
Yuta Arai n 864.8
00/0
0.21/0
Y. Fukuda n 858.5
0.21/0
00/0
Rei Hirakawa n 856.5
00/0
0.21/0
Tokyo Verdy — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Shion Nakayama n 642.7
2.85/1
Y. Fukuda n 858.5
2.77/3
Yuan Matsuhashi n 853.9
2.77/5
Koki Morita n 872
2.36/4
Kosuke Saito n 846.4
2.24/3
Tokyo Verdy — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Yuya Nagasawa n 890
2.35/4
Matheus Vidotto n 884.8
25/3
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Abdel Hanan Sani Brown n 817.9
3.85/1
1.32/0
—
Daiki Miya n 842.4
2.15/2
00/0
—
Nara Tatsuki n 879.3
1.77/3
0.62/1
—
Keiya Shiihashi n 859
1.75/3
13/2
—
Shu Morooka n 847.1
1.75/2
2.66/3
—
Avispa Fukuoka — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Abdel Hanan Sani Brown n 817.9
2.54/0
0.61/0
Shu Morooka n 847.1
2.16/2
1.74/2
Shosei Usui n 881
1.87/5
15/2
M. Yuzawa n 827.9
1.22/1
00/0
Shintaro Nago n 869
1.15/2
0.32/0
Avispa Fukuoka — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Shu Morooka n 847.1
0.73/0
00/0
Yu Hashimoto n 856.4
0.42/0
0.21/0
Shosei Usui n 881
0.64/0
00/0
Abdel Hanan Sani Brown n 817.9
0.61/0
00/0
Tomoya Miki n 884.1
0.11/0
0.32/0
Avispa Fukuoka — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
K. Maeda n 552.2
3.44/2
Tomoya Miki n 884.1
2.48/6
Maejima Yota n 884
1.78/3
Nara Tatsuki n 879.3
1.65/3
M. Yuzawa n 827.9
1.63/1
Avispa Fukuoka — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Y. Obata n 890
2.55/3
Kazuki Fujita n 890
12/1

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Tokyo VerdyLDLLL
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.6 scored / 3.4 conceded per game
Avispa FukuokaDLDWL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 4
Tokyo Verdy 1 · 3 draws · Avispa Fukuoka 0 · 0.25 goals/game
  • 2025-11-08 Tokyo Verdy 0–0 Avispa Fukuoka
  • 2025-05-31 Avispa Fukuoka 0–0 Tokyo Verdy
  • 2024-07-20 Avispa Fukuoka 0–1 Tokyo Verdy
  • 2024-04-28 Tokyo Verdy 0–0 Avispa Fukuoka
League standing · 2027
Last recorded position — not updated during the season.
Tokyo Verdy#20 pos4 pts9 pl-10 GD
Avispa Fukuoka#17 pos7 pts9 pl-2 GD
Goals per game
Tokyo Verdy scored0.44
Avispa Fukuoka scored1.22
Tokyo Verdy conceded1.56
Avispa Fukuoka conceded1.44

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Tokyo Verdy and Avispa Fukuoka?
In their last 4 meetings, Tokyo Verdy won 1, Avispa Fukuoka won 0 and there were 3 draws, averaging 0.25 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Tokyo Verdy and Avispa Fukuoka?
Recent form — Tokyo Verdy 0W 1D 4L; Avispa Fukuoka 1W 2D 2L.

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