Rayo Vallecano v Elche prediction

La Liga · · Estadio de Vallecas

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Rayo Vallecano · Elche · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Rayo Vallecano v Elche, La Liga on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 13:00 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.28 at Bet365
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.3% of 4357 landed (95% range 76–78.5%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Rayo Vallecano host Elche in La Liga on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 13:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Rayo Vallecano or Elche (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Rayo Vallecano have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Six of Rayo Vallecano’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in 10 of Rayo Vallecano’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Rayo Vallecano have four wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 2.33 points per game, scoring 1.67 and conceding 0.83. Rayo Vallecano have scored 11 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Rayo Vallecano have conceded 16 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Eight of Elche’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in 11 of Elche’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). Away from home, Elche have two wins, four draws and three defeats in their last 9 away matches in all competitions — 1.11 points per game, scoring 1.33 and conceding 1.44. Elche have scored 11 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Elche have conceded 17 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs.

Elche are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Rayo Vallecano (13th) and Elche (18th) are one point apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Rayo Vallecano the stronger side, 69 rating points above Elche (Rayo Vallecano 1593, Elche 1524, after at least 161 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 3 April 2026, finished Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Elche.

Team news

Predicted Rayo Vallecano XI (4-2-3-1): E. Audero, F. Lejeune, A. Pedrosa, P. Ciss, I. Balliu, U. López, Ó. Valentín, Á. García, P. Díaz, J. de Frutos, S. Camello — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Sergio Camello (5.3 per match over eight appearances, seven goals and one assist) and Unai López (4.0 per match over eight appearances, three assists) have been Rayo Vallecano’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Rayo Vallecano (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Sergio Camello averages 3.0 shots per 90 over 515 minutes, with a shot in six of the last eight appearances. Unai López averages 2.4 key passes per 90 over 601 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last eight appearances.

Predicted Elche XI (5-3-2): M. Dituro, V. Chust, B. Sangaré, R. Revivo, G. Valera, F. Redondo, G. Villar, T. Lemar, T. Morente, F. Niño, L. Cepeda — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Fer Niño (4.0 per match over nine appearances, five goals) and David Affengruber (3.2 per match over three appearances) have been Elche’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Elche (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Fer Niño averages 1.9 shots per 90 over 566 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last nine appearances. David Affengruber averages 1.4 tackles per 90 over 779 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · La Liga · Estadio de Vallecas
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Rayo Vallecano 3 · draws 0 · Elche 3 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: Rayo Vallecano 2W 1D 2L · Elche 1W 3D 1L

Rayo Vallecano v Elche (La Liga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.38 / 1.25
Goals
against 2 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.75 / 4.38
Corners
against 5.63 / 5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.13 / 4
Shots on target
against 4.88 / 4.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.38 / 2.63
Cards
against 1.75 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameRayo Vallecano for / againstLineElche for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 2 against n 8
2.5our book
1.25 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
4.75 for · 5.63 against n 8
9.5standard
4.38 for · 5 against n 8
Shots
11.88 for · 14.63 against n 8
19.5standard
11 for · 15.75 against n 8
Shots on target
4.13 for · 4.88 against n 8
8.5standard
4 for · 4.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
12 for · 11.5 against n 8
21.5standard
13.63 for · 12.88 against n 8
Cards shown
2.38 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5standard
2.63 for · 2 against n 8
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Fran Pérez n 834.6
3.26/2
0.62/0
—
Alemão n 830
36/2
2.64/2
—
G. Bouare n 537.8
2.43/2
1.43/0
—
R. Nteka n 853.5
2.16/2
1.34/1
—
Isi Palazón n 870.3
1.86/3
2.47/4
—
Rayo Vallecano — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Sergio Camello n 864.4
36/6
1.95/4
Alemão n 830
36/1
1.13/0
Isi Palazón n 870.3
2.77/5
1.14/2
R. Nteka n 853.5
2.37/4
1.55/2
Pedro Díaz n 849.4
2.15/3
0.51/1
Rayo Vallecano — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Sergio Camello n 864.4
1.25/2
0.21/0
Álvaro García n 871.9
0.32/0
0.32/0
R. Nteka n 853.5
0.63/0
00/0
Unai López n 875.1
00/0
0.42/1
Isi Palazón n 870.3
0.21/0
0.21/0
Rayo Vallecano — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
G. Bouare n 537.8
2.94/1
A. Rațiu n 890
2.56/5
Unai López n 875.1
2.48/5
Adrià Pedrosa n 860.3
2.46/3
Óscar Valentín n 854.4
2.36/3
Rayo Vallecano — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Dani Cárdenas n 882.5
4.56/5
A. Batalla n 886.3
2.37/3
E. Audero n 884.4
2.35/2
Elche
Elche — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Tete Morente n 856.5
3.27/4
1.24/2
—
F. Buonanotte n 837.3
2.45/2
0.62/0
—
Gonzalo Villar n 880.5
2.17/5
2.27/5
—
Matia Barzic Gutiérrez n 866.4
27/4
0.32/0
—
T. Lemar n 845.4
26/2
0.72/1
—
Elche — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Osorio n 842.8
2.65/3
1.14/0
F. Buonanotte n 837.3
2.14/3
1.24/0
Fer Niño n 862.1
26/3
1.44/3
Ali Houary n 855.9
1.67/1
0.84/0
E. Ponce n 849
1.65/2
0.52/0
Elche — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Josan n 816.8
00/0
1.32/0
Fer Niño n 862.1
0.94/1
00/0
Tete Morente n 856.5
00/0
0.63/0
Roy Revivo n 887.5
00/0
0.31/1
A. Osorio n 842.8
0.31/0
00/0
Elche — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Lemar n 845.4
47/4
Josan n 816.8
3.43/2
F. Redondo n 851.6
3.36/3
Gonzalo Villar n 880.5
2.27/6
Rubén Sánchez n 842.8
2.15/2
Elche — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Dituro n 890
2.87/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Rayo Vallecano v Elche — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Rayo VallecanoLWLWD
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.8 scored / 2.6 conceded per game
ElcheDLWDD
Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 1.2 scored / 1 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Rayo Vallecano 3 · 0 draws · Elche 3 · 3 goals/game
  • 2026-04-03 Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Elche
  • 2025-12-21 Elche 4–0 Rayo Vallecano
  • 2023-04-29 Elche 4–0 Rayo Vallecano
  • 2022-10-03 Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Elche
  • 2022-02-18 Elche 2–1 Rayo Vallecano
  • 2021-10-17 Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Elche
League standing · 2026/27
Rayo Vallecano#13 pos8 pts7 pl-5 GD
Elche#18 pos7 pts9 pl-6 GD
Goals per game
Rayo Vallecano scored1.57
Elche scored1.22
Rayo Vallecano conceded2.29
Elche conceded1.89

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Rayo Vallecano v Elche?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Rayo Vallecano v Elche is Home or Away (best price 1.28 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Elche?
In their last 6 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 3, Elche won 3 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Rayo Vallecano and Elche?
Recent form — Rayo Vallecano 2W 1D 2L; Elche 1W 3D 1L.

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