Rayo VallecanoReal Sociedad

Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad result

Full-time · Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Sociedad

La Liga · · Estadio de Vallecas

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Rayo Vallecano · Real Sociedad · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Sociedad — this La Liga match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.7% of 495 landed (95% range 64.5–72.6%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 596 of 928 times (64.2%), against an average rating of 67.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Rayo Vallecano: 3.22 to 2.40 in expected goals, 0.74 of Real Sociedad’s from a penalty, from 24 shots to 13, ahead on xG from the 83rd minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The points were shared.

The result

Rayo Vallecano and Real Sociedad drew 3–3 at Estadio de Vallecas in La Liga on Sunday 26 April.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Real Sociedad: Mikel Oyarzabal (22’, assisted by Barrenetxea; 76’ pen) and Orri Óskarsson (63’, assisted by Sergio Gómez); Rayo Vallecano: Sergio Camello (30’), Florian Lejeune (84’) and Alemão (90’, assisted by Pedro Díaz). Isi Palazón (-5’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s seven key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Alemão’s goal on 90 minutes.

Discipline

J. Guzman showed 10 yellow cards and one red — against 6.4 yellows a game across the last 8 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Rayo Vallecano: Nobel Mendy (-5’), Isi Palazón (29’), Pathé Ciss (49’), Andrei Rațiu (75’), Florian Lejeune (90+7’) and Alemão (90+10’); Real Sociedad: Takefusa Kubo (-5’), Sergio Gómez (45+1’), Orri Óskarsson (56’) and Carlos Soler (90+7’).

What it changes

Rayo Vallecano stay 11th after this result (33 league matches played).

Real Sociedad stay eighth after this result (33 league matches played).

With six goals it was the highest-scoring match of round 32, across 10 matches. Real Sociedad are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad) 11.6, Barrenetxea (Real Sociedad) 7.5 and Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano) 7.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Rayo Vallecano next host Valencia on 21 November 2026.

Real Sociedad next travel to Racing Santander on 22 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Rayo Vallecano: Rayo Vallecano v Valencia, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Real Sociedad: Racing Santander v Real Sociedad, Sunday 22 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Sociedad · La Liga
  • Venue: Estadio de Vallecas · Madrid
  • Referee: J. Guzman
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Rayo Vallecano 2 · draws 3 · Real Sociedad 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Rayo Vallecano 3W 0D 2L · Real Sociedad 1W 2D 2L

Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Sociedad (La Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.88 / 1.75
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6.5 / 6.57
Corners
against 5.5 / 5.43 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.5 / 4.29
Shots on target
against 4.25 / 4.57 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.5 / 2.43
Cards
against 3.75 / 2.57 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
6.38 yellows
Referee · J. Guzman
23.75 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 23 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 23 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameRayo Vallecano for / againstLineReal Sociedad for / against
Goals scored
0.88 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5standard
1.75 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
6.5 for · 5.5 against n 8
9.5standard
6.57 for · 5.43 against n 7
Shots
15 for · 13.88 against n 8
19.5standard
12.71 for · 13.43 against n 7
Shots on target
4.5 for · 4.25 against n 8
8.5standard
4.29 for · 4.57 against n 7
Fouls committed
13.63 for · 12.5 against n 8
21.5standard
12.29 for · 14 against n 7
Cards shown
2.5 for · 3.75 against n 8
3.5standard
2.43 for · 2.57 against n 7

Referee: J. Guzman — 6.38 yellow cards a game, 0.75 red cards, 23.75 fouls over 8 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano Goalkeeper

Rayo Vallecano — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
A. Batalla42903780 min1052.5 /90471.1 /9000 /90
Dani Cárdenas490360 min164 /9061.5 /9010.3 /90
Rayo Vallecano — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rayo Vallecano before kick-off, to 23 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Batalla n 890
2.95/5

Rayo Vallecano Defensive

Rayo Vallecano — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
F. Lejeune45904034 min751.7 /90631.4 /90310.7 /902235 /90651.5 /9060.1 /90
A. Rațiu38853216 min782.2 /90441.2 /9070.2 /901955.5 /90260.7 /9090.3 /90
Pep Chavarría33852795 min612 /90331.1 /90170.5 /901444.6 /90381.2 /9080.3 /90
A. Espino30671999 min582.6 /90251.1 /9050.2 /901346 /90251.1 /9020.1 /90
N. Mendy20781558 min241.4 /90211.2 /90160.9 /90613.5 /90271.6 /9070.4 /90
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Rayo Vallecano — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rayo Vallecano before kick-off, to 23 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Lejeune n 890
1.36/4
0.86/0
Sergio Gómez
Álvaro García n 864.5
0.94/1
0.21/0
—
Isi Palazón n 873.4
0.94/2
2.37/3
Mikel Oyarzabal
A. Batalla n 890
00/0
0.53/1
—
Jorge de Frutos n 874.4
1.55/3
1.15/2
—
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Rayo Vallecano — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rayo Vallecano before kick-off, to 23 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
F. Lejeune n 890
1.56/4
Álvaro García n 864.5
1.46/2
Isi Palazón n 873.4
1.86/3
Jorge de Frutos n 874.4
0.84/1
A. Rațiu n 881.9
2.96/6
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Rayo Vallecano Attacking

Rayo Vallecano — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Jorge de Frutos41662715 min110.4 /9030.1 /90521.7 /90270.9 /90361.2 /90280.9 /90
Alemão23541243 min30.2 /9000 /90241.7 /90120.9 /9090.7 /9050.4 /90
Sergio Camello18561012 min20.2 /9010.1 /90181.6 /9070.6 /90161.4 /90151.3 /90
R. Nteka748333 min10.3 /9000 /9041.1 /9010.3 /9041.1 /9061.6 /90
Álvaro García45642877 min110.3 /90100.3 /90601.9 /90331 /90561.8 /90110.3 /90
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Rayo Vallecano — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rayo Vallecano before kick-off, to 23 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
F. Lejeune n 890
1.16/3
0.32/0
Álvaro García n 864.5
2.37/4
15/1
Isi Palazón n 873.4
25/3
1.14/2
A. Batalla n 890
00/0
00/0
Jorge de Frutos n 874.4
26/4
0.95/1
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Rayo Vallecano — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rayo Vallecano before kick-off, to 23 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
F. Lejeune n 890
00/0
0.11/0
Álvaro García n 864.5
0.21/0
0.32/0
Isi Palazón n 873.4
0.32/0
0.31/1
A. Batalla n 890
00/0
00/0
Jorge de Frutos n 874.4
00/0
00/0
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Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad Goalkeeper

Real Sociedad — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Álex Remiro34903060 min832.4 /90511.5 /9010 /90
Real Sociedad — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Sociedad before kick-off, to 23 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Álex Remiro n 890
2.95/5

Real Sociedad Defensive

Real Sociedad — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Aramburu34812749 min1063.5 /90451.5 /9090.3 /902177.1 /90632.1 /9090.3 /90
Sergio Gómez32792521 min863.1 /90361.3 /9070.2 /901274.5 /90441.6 /9020.1 /90
Jon Martín24902160 min281.2 /90401.7 /90261.1 /901305.4 /90220.9 /9050.2 /90
Zubeldia24872079 min361.6 /90231 /90130.6 /90913.9 /90381.6 /9080.3 /90
D. Ćaleta-Car24821964 min170.8 /90281.3 /90160.7 /901125.1 /90281.3 /9060.3 /90
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Real Sociedad — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Sociedad before kick-off, to 23 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Álex Remiro n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
J. Aramburu n 881.6
1.76/4
1.56/4
—
Sergio Gómez n 890
1.36/4
0.32/0
F. Lejeune
Gonçalo Guedes n 873.4
0.63/1
2.15/4
—
Mikel Oyarzabal n 874.1
0.85/0
1.46/3
Isi Palazón
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Real Sociedad — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Sociedad before kick-off, to 23 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Aramburu n 881.6
2.68/6
Sergio Gómez n 890
1.65/5
Gonçalo Guedes n 873.4
1.15/2
Mikel Oyarzabal n 874.1
0.21/0
Carlos Soler n 883.5
0.83/2
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Real Sociedad Attacking

Real Sociedad — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Mikel Oyarzabal31832577 min140.5 /9030.1 /90592.1 /90341.2 /90421.5 /90361.3 /90
O. Óskarsson1338489 min50.9 /9000 /90112 /9081.5 /9020.4 /9030.6 /90
U. Sadiq346138 min00 /9000 /9021.3 /9000 /9010.7 /9000 /90
Jon Karrikaburu334103 min00 /9000 /9021.7 /9010.9 /9010.9 /9000 /90
J. Ochieng12525 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9027.2 /9000 /90
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Real Sociedad — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Sociedad before kick-off, to 23 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Álex Remiro n 890
00/0
00/0
J. Aramburu n 881.6
0.63/1
00/0
Sergio Gómez n 890
0.32/0
00/0
Gonçalo Guedes n 873.4
1.87/3
0.84/1
Mikel Oyarzabal n 874.1
1.46/2
0.96/0
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Real Sociedad — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Sociedad before kick-off, to 23 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Álex Remiro n 890
00/0
00/0
J. Aramburu n 881.6
00/0
00/0
Sergio Gómez n 890
00/0
0.11/0
Gonçalo Guedes n 873.4
0.31/1
0.21/0
Mikel Oyarzabal n 874.1
0.53/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Rayo VallecanoReal Sociedad
58%Possession42%
2.38Expected goals (xG)2.23
24Shots13
9Shots on target8
8Shots off target3
7Blocked shots2
13Shots inside the box10
6Corners4
0Offsides2
14Fouls12
6Yellow cards4
1Red cards0
5Saves6
412Passes300
85%Pass accuracy76%

Rayo Vallecano Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Dani Cárdenas9000000107.7
A. Rațiu90001122Y6
F. Lejeune90102111Y6.9
Pep Chavarría9000000406
P. Ciss90001000Y6.3
Ilias Akhomach9000324106.7
Unai López8100000106.7
Isi Palazón68002020RY6
N. Mendy64000010Y6.7
Carlos Martín6400111106.5
Sergio Camello6410322107.9
Pedro Díaz sub2601102007.2
Jorge de Frutos sub2600111006.5
Alemão sub26101100Y7
Gumbau sub2200104107.5
Fran Pérez sub900000006.6

Real Sociedad Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Álex Remiro9000000006.9
J. Aramburu9000000206.2
Jon Martín9000000206.2
D. Ćaleta-Car9000100406.3
Carlos Soler90004201Y6.3
Mikel Oyarzabal9020332108.2
Sergio Gómez89010043Y7.7
Beñat Turrientes6700000106.9
O. Óskarsson67102210Y7.3
T. Kubo56000000Y6.3
Barrenetxea5601111206.9
L. Sučić sub3400001206.5
Pablo Marín sub3400001007
Jon Gorrotxategi sub2300000006.5
Y. Herrera sub2300000006.3
Aihen Muñoz sub1400000106.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Rayo VallecanoWWLLW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Real SociedadLWDDL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Rayo Vallecano 2 · 3 draws · Real Sociedad 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2025-10-05 Real Sociedad 0–1 Rayo Vallecano
  • 2025-03-16 Rayo Vallecano 2–2 Real Sociedad
  • 2025-01-16 Real Sociedad 3–1 Rayo Vallecano
  • 2024-08-18 Real Sociedad 1–2 Rayo Vallecano
  • 2024-01-27 Real Sociedad 0–0 Rayo Vallecano
  • 2023-10-29 Rayo Vallecano 2–2 Real Sociedad
League standing · 2025/26
Rayo Vallecano#8 pos50 pts38 pl-3 GD
Real Sociedad#10 pos46 pts38 pl-2 GD
Goals per game
Rayo Vallecano scored1.08
Real Sociedad scored1.55
Rayo Vallecano conceded1.16
Real Sociedad conceded1.61

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Rayo Vallecano 3.22 xG from 24 shots, Real Sociedad 2.40 from 13. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Mikel Oyarzabal 58' · 0.44 xGPathé Ciss 96' · 0.43 xGSergio Camello 50' · 0.32 xGCarlos Soler 103' · 0.27 xGJorge De Frutos 104' · 0.25 xGBeñat Turrientes 5' · 0.09 xGSergio Camello 15' · 0.09 xGOrri Óskarsson 61' · 0.09 xGTakefusa Kubo 6' · 0.07 xGIlias Akhomach 83' · 0.06 xGAnder Barrenetxea 1' · 0.06 xGIsi Palazón 50' · 0.06 xGJorge De Frutos 95' · 0.05 xGIlias Akhomach 52' · 0.04 xGIlias Akhomach 100' · 0.04 xGDuje Caleta-Car 1' · 0.03 xGIsi Palazón 35' · 0.03 xGUnai López 36' · 0.03 xGCarlos Martín 58' · 0.03 xGPedro Díaz 86' · 0.03 xGCarlos Soler 50' · 0.02 xGCarlos Soler 88' · 0.02 xGIsi Palazón 27' · 0.02 xGUnai López 65' · 0.02 xGGerard Gumbau 94' · 0.02 xGCarlos Soler 4' · 0.02 xGAndrei Ratiu 65' · 0.02 xGGerard Gumbau 82' · 0.01 xGGerard Gumbau 93' · 0.01 xGFlorian Lejeune 78' · 0.01 xGPedro Díaz 87' · 0.01 xGMikel Oyarzabal 75' · 0.74 xG · goalAlemão 98' · 0.59 xG · goalFlorian Lejeune 83' · 0.58 xG · goalSergio Camello 29' · 0.49 xG · goalOrri Óskarsson 62' · 0.45 xG · goalMikel Oyarzabal 21' · 0.09 xG · goal
Rayo Vallecano (attacking right)Real Sociedad (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Rayo Vallecano2433.22
Real Sociedad1332.40

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Rayo Vallecano 0.65, Real Sociedad 0.36. At full time, Rayo Vallecano led on xG, 3.22 to 2.40, 0.74 of Real Sociedad’s from a penalty. The widest gap was 0.97 xG to Real Sociedad, in the 75th minute (level on open-play xG).

xG timeline (cumulative)
3.21.600′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Real Sociedad 21 minGoal - Rayo Vallecano 29 minGoal - Real Sociedad 62 minGoal - Real Sociedad 75 minGoal - Rayo Vallecano 83 minGoal - Rayo Vallecano 98 min
Rayo Vallecano 3.22 xGReal Sociedad 2.40 xGdots = goals · 37 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Real Sociedad?
In their last 6 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 2, Real Sociedad won 1 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Rayo Vallecano and Real Sociedad?
Recent form — Rayo Vallecano 3W 0D 2L; Real Sociedad 1W 2D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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