Toluca v Leon result

Full-time · Toluca 2–0 Leon

Leagues Cup · · Shell Energy Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Toluca · Leon · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Toluca 2–0 Leon — Toluca won this Leagues Cup match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Away shots total over 9.5.

Free pick
Away shots total over 9.5
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
Match report, in numbers

The result

Toluca beat Leon 2–0 at Shell Energy Stadium in Leagues Cup on Thursday 3 September. Toluca are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions.

The goals

Toluca led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Toluca: F. Pereira (41’) and F. Viñas (69’, assisted by J. Diaz). Jhohan Romaña (75’) and Bruno Mendez (89’) were sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with F. Pereira’s goal on 41 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Toluca 4.09, Leon 1.20, from 21 shots to 11 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

What it changes

Toluca have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, F. Pereira (Toluca) 10.6, F. Viñas (Toluca) 8.3 and Helinho (Toluca) 6.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Leon shots total over 9.5, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Toluca next host Club Tijuana on 22 October 2026.

Leon next travel to Tigres UANL on 21 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Toluca: Toluca v Club Tijuana, Thursday 22 October — the preview. Next for Leon: Tigres UANL v Leon, Wednesday 21 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Toluca 2–0 Leon · Leagues Cup
  • Venue: Shell Energy Stadium · Houston
  • Referee: Said Martinez, Honduras
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Toluca 3 · draws 2 · Leon 1 · 4.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Toluca 4W 1D 0L · Leon 4W 1D 0L

Toluca 2–0 Leon (Leagues Cup): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 11 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.13 / 1.88
Goals
against 0.5 / 0.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
6.5 / 4.38
Corners
against 4.38 / 6.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
7.38 / 6.25
Shots on target
against 2.5 / 4.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.5 / 2.13
Cards
against 2.75 / 3 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 August 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameToluca for / againstLineLeon for / against
Goals scored
2.13 for · 0.5 against n 8
3our book
1.88 for · 0.63 against n 8
Corners won
6.5 for · 4.38 against n 8
9.5standard
4.38 for · 6.38 against n 8
Shots
22.38 for · 10 against n 8
19.5standard
14 for · 15.63 against n 8
Shots on target
7.38 for · 2.5 against n 8
8.5standard
6.25 for · 4.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.75 for · 11.5 against n 8
21.5standard
11.5 for · 13.5 against n 8
Cards shown
1.5 for · 2.75 against n 8
3.5standard
2.13 for · 3 against n 8

Referee: Said Martinez, Honduras.

Toluca
Toluca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
O. Virgen n 829.1
2.32/2
0.41/0
—
É. Gutiérrez n 853.5
2.16/3
0.42/0
—
Everardo López n 859.6
1.95/2
00/0
S. Vegas
D. Barbosa n 859.3
1.98/2
0.21/0
—
Luan n 858.5
1.95/4
1.33/2
—
Toluca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Helinho n 860.4
3.27/4
1.55/3
N. Castro n 856.5
3.27/5
1.25/1
O. Virgen n 829.1
3.13/1
1.52/1
P. Perez n 838.1
34/2
0.31/0
V. Guzmán n 831.8
2.84/3
0.41/0
Toluca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
O. Virgen n 829.1
0.82/0
0.41/0
Helinho n 860.4
0.74/0
0.21/0
I. López n 841.5
0.52/0
0.31/0
F. Viñas n 863.5
0.74/0
00/0
Everardo López n 859.6
0.21/0
0.42/0
Toluca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Barbosa n 859.3
3.86/6
É. Gutiérrez n 853.5
3.46/6
Santiago Simón n 870.8
3.36/4
F. Romero n 887.3
2.67/5
Everardo López n 859.6
2.65/4
Toluca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
L. Garcia n 891.9
3.26/4
H. Gonzalez n 881.5
1.55/0
Leon
Leon — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Christopher Mora n 344
3.43/2
1.41/1
—
S. Vegas n 882
2.58/6
0.11/0
Everardo López
E. Guerra n 859.6
2.16/3
1.14/2
—
A. Alvarado n 827.3
2.14/1
1.23/0
—
S. Santos n 867.9
26/4
0.52/1
—
Leon — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Arcila n 878.6
3.78/7
2.98/5
D. Cambindo n 856
3.48/6
27/3
I. Diaz n 846.1
2.96/5
13/1
E. Guerra n 859.6
2.86/4
1.55/1
A. Alvarado n 827.3
2.55/1
1.22/1
Leon — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Cambindo n 856
0.62/1
0.62/1
D. Arcila n 878.6
16/1
00/0
A. Alvarado n 827.3
0.41/0
0.41/0
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco n 844.3
0.52/0
00/0
J. Cortizo n 870.4
0.21/0
0.21/0
Leon — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Christopher Mora n 344
4.12/2
J. Cortizo n 870.4
3.77/6
I. Moreno n 863.8
3.27/5
B. Colula n 832.3
2.84/2
J. Lara n 527.4
2.64/0
Leon — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
O. Garcia n 891.8
3.97/5

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
TolucaLeon
56%Possession44%
4.09Expected goals (xG)1.20
21Shots11
8Shots on target1
9Shots off target7
4Blocked shots3
14Shots inside the box7
4Corners5
2Offsides0
15Fouls15
1Yellow cards5
1Red cards1
1Saves5
476Passes368
88%Pass accuracy82%

Toluca player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
H. Gonzalez9000000006.8
F. Pereira9010111508.8
Everardo López9000100107.4
F. Romero9000101307.1
F. Viñas9010622208.1
Bruno Mendez89000000R6.4
J. Gallardo8400100007.3
Helinho8400313007.2
N. Castro84001012Y7
B. García7300113007.9
A. Vega6200102206.8
J. Diaz2801422007.5
D. Barbosa1700001007
J. Angulo600000006.7
P. Perez600111006.9
F. Arce600000006.5

Leon player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
O. Garcia9000000006.7
B. Colula90001003Y5.7
I. Rodriguez9000000006.5
D. Arcila90003120Y6.2
D. Cambindo9000301006
Juan José Guevara Possu82001012Y6.3
Jhohan Romaña75000002R5.6
R. Echeverria7300000106.4
Fernando Beltrán7300203006.6
S. Vegas5300101306.4
J. Cortizo53000013Y6.1
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco3700000005.9
I. Moreno3700000106.2
A. Alvarado1700000006.3
I. Diaz1700000006.6
P. Bellon800000006

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Toluca v Leon — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
TolucaWDWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.2 scored / 0.4 conceded per game
LeonWWWWD
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Toluca 3 · 2 draws · Leon 1 · 4.5 goals/game
  • 2026-04-26 Toluca 4–1 Leon
  • 2025-10-05 Leon 2–4 Toluca
  • 2025-02-09 Leon 3–3 Toluca
  • 2024-11-02 Toluca 2–2 Leon
  • 2024-02-03 Toluca 4–1 Leon
  • 2023-10-21 Leon 1–0 Toluca
Goals per game
Toluca scored2.2
Leon scored2.2
Toluca conceded0.4
Leon conceded0.8

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Toluca v Leon?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Toluca v Leon was Away shots total over 9.5.
What is the head-to-head record between Toluca and Leon?
In their last 6 meetings, Toluca won 3, Leon won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 4.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Toluca and Leon?
Recent form — Toluca 4W 1D 0L; Leon 4W 1D 0L.

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