Independiente v Boca Juniors prediction
Team pages: Independiente · Boca Juniors · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Home saves under 4.5 the free pick for Independiente v Boca Juniors, Liga Profesional Argentina on Sun, 25 Oct 2026 20:00 GMT.
The match
Independiente host Boca Juniors in Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 25 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Independiente saves under 4.5, a Bronze-tier call.
Form and the table
Five of Independiente’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (33%). Both teams scored in five of Independiente’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). At home, Independiente have one win, two draws and three defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 0.83 points per game, scoring 0.50 and conceding 1.50. Independiente have scored 12 goals, the 11th-fewest (shared) of the 30 clubs (2026 so far). Independiente have conceded 13 goals, the 12th-fewest (shared) of the 30 clubs.
Seven of Boca Juniors’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Boca Juniors’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Boca Juniors have three wins, six draws and no defeats in their last 9 away matches in all competitions — 1.67 points per game, scoring 1.78 and conceding 1.00. Boca Juniors have scored 21 goals, the most (shared) of the 30 clubs (2026 so far). Boca Juniors have conceded 14 goals, the 14th-most of the 30 clubs.
Independiente are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Independiente (seventh) and Boca Juniors (second) are five points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Boca Juniors the stronger side, 235 rating points above Independiente (Boca Juniors 1751, Independiente 1516, after at least 286 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
Independiente are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Boca Juniors. The most recent meeting, on 11 April 2026, finished Boca Juniors 1–1 Independiente.
Team news
Predicted Independiente XI (4-3-3): R. Rey, J. Arrayago, L. Godoy, F. Zabala, J. Fedorco, I. Marcone, M. Perez, M. Meza, S. Montiel, M. Abaldo, E. Ávila — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Gabriel Ávalos (4.6 per match over 23 appearances, 11 goals and five assists) and Santiago Montiel (3.7 per match over 25 appearances, four goals and five assists) have been Independiente’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Independiente (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Gabriel Ávalos averages 2.0 shots per 90 over 2319 minutes, with a shot in six of the last 10 appearances. Santiago Montiel averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 1779 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Boca Juniors XI (4-3-3): A. Montero, L. Blanco, L. Di Lollo, D. Gorosito, M. Pellegrino, S. Ascacibar, M. Delgado, C. Rey, L. Flores, M. Merentiel, E. Valencia — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, L. Flores (4.7 per match over 17 appearances, four goals and three assists) and D. Gorosito (4.4 per match over eight appearances, two assists) have been Boca Juniors’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Boca Juniors (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), L. Flores averages 2.5 shots per 90 over 1352 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. D. Gorosito averages 2.6 tackles per 90 over 648 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last eight appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Liga Profesional Argentina
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Independiente 1 · draws 4 · Boca Juniors 1 · 2.17 goals/game
- Recent form: Independiente 1W 3D 1L · Boca Juniors 3W 1D 1L
Independiente v Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Independiente for / against | Line | Boca Juniors for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 0.75 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.25our book | 2 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 4.75 for · 5.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 4.14 for · 3 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Shots | 11.88 for · 13.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 14.14 for · 10.14 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 3.38 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.43 for · 2.14 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 9.38 for · 12.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 10.43 for · 11.71 against n 7 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.38 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2 for · 2.86 against n 7 Last 5 |
Independiente
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Morales n 8 | 34.4 | 4.6 | 1.3 | — |
| Facundo Zabala n 8 | 71.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | — |
| J. Palais n 7 | 42.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | — |
| Leonardo Godoy n 8 | 54.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | — |
| Matías Abaldo n 8 | 52 | 1.5 | 0.6 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| E. Ávila n 8 | 37.4 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
| Lautaro Millán n 8 | 34.3 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Maximiliano Gutiérrez n 8 | 65.1 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Felipe Tempone n 8 | 30.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Santiago Montiel n 8 | 84.3 | 2 | 0.7 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maxi Meza n 8 | 51.1 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Lautaro Millán n 8 | 34.3 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Maximiliano Gutiérrez n 8 | 65.1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Santiago Montiel n 8 | 84.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Leonardo Godoy n 8 | 54.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Facundo Zabala n 8 | 71.8 | 3.6 |
| Lautaro Millán n 8 | 34.3 | 3.3 |
| Santiago Arias n 8 | 65.9 | 2.6 |
| Iván Marcone n 8 | 88.5 | 2.2 |
| Maxi Meza n 8 | 51.1 | 2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Rey n 8 | 88.5 | 2.4 |
Boca Juniors
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Valencia n 8 | 45 | 2 | 1.5 | — |
| A. Velasco n 8 | 57.3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | — |
| M. Delgado n 8 | 78.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | — |
| M. Braida n 8 | 80 | 1.5 | 2 | — |
| Sebastián Villa n 8 | 41.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Velasco n 8 | 57.3 | 4.3 | 0.8 |
| Sebastián Villa n 8 | 41.3 | 3 | 1.1 |
| E. Valencia n 8 | 45 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| Miguel Merentiel n 8 | 62.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Angel Romero n 8 | 26 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| E. Valencia n 8 | 45 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| L. Flores n 8 | 63.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Angel Romero n 8 | 26 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Miguel Merentiel n 8 | 62.9 | 0.7 | 0 |
| L. Blanco n 8 | 87.1 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| L. Paredes n 8 | 73.8 | 3.1 |
| M. Braida n 8 | 80 | 3 |
| M. Delgado n 8 | 78.3 | 3 |
| D. Gorosito n 8 | 81 | 2.6 |
| L. Blanco n 8 | 87.1 | 2.5 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| A. Montero n 8 | 90 | 2.4 |
| L. Brey n 8 | 86.5 | 1 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Independiente v Boca Juniors — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-04-11 Boca Juniors 1–1 Independiente
- 2025-05-20 Boca Juniors 0–1 Independiente
- 2024-12-14 Boca Juniors 0–0 Independiente
- 2023-07-29 Independiente 0–2 Boca Juniors
- 2022-10-23 Boca Juniors 2–2 Independiente
- 2022-02-27 Independiente 2–2 Boca Juniors
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Independiente v Boca Juniors?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Independiente v Boca Juniors is Home saves under 4.5.
- What is the head-to-head record between Independiente and Boca Juniors?
- In their last 6 meetings, Independiente won 1, Boca Juniors won 1 and there were 4 draws, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Independiente and Boca Juniors?
- Recent form — Independiente 1W 3D 1L; Boca Juniors 3W 1D 1L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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